SARS-Cov-2 Models

These models and simulations have been tagged “SARS-Cov-2”.

Related tagsCOVID-19

 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

The model represents the interaction between influenza and SARS-CoV-2. The data used is for Catalonia region.
The model represents the interaction between influenza and SARS-CoV-2. The data used is for Catalonia region.
 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

 Modelling of the SARS-Cov-2 viral outbreak using an SEIR model plus specific extensions to model demand for health and care resources.     The model includes biths and deaths, and migration to accommodate import and export of infected individuals from other areas.     Healthcare resources identifie
Modelling of the SARS-Cov-2 viral outbreak using an SEIR model plus specific extensions to model demand for health and care resources.

The model includes biths and deaths, and migration to accommodate import and export of infected individuals from other areas.

Healthcare resources identifies need for hospital beds and critical care.

The model is uses arrays to reflect the different impacts of modelled parameters by age and sex.
 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

 If no attempt is made to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 it will eventually
become endemic, ineradicable, at a high never-ending cost to world in terms of economic
growth, human health and lives. The current strategy adopted by most
governments is to impose  restrictive
measures when the virus threatens to ov

If no attempt is made to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 it will eventually become endemic, ineradicable, at a high never-ending cost to world in terms of economic growth, human health and lives. The current strategy adopted by most governments is to impose  restrictive measures when the virus threatens to overwhelm hospital services and to relax these restrictions as this danger recedes. This is short-sighted. It cannot eliminate the highly infectious delta variant, which has an estimated R0-value of between 6 & 9. Periodic lockdowns will be hard to avoid in the future.

However, eradication is possible, herd immunity can be achieved quickly worldwide, reducing the R0 permanently to below 1, which will lead to the disappearance of the virus. Critical in achieving this is Ivermectin, a medicine that is cheap,  readily available and can be manufactured by most countries. A recent meta study has shown that Ivermectin, prophylactically employed, can prevent infection with the virus  by 86 % on average – very similar to the efficacy of vaccines. Eradication will require employment of all the instruments shown in the graph: future generations do not have to live with this plague. 

 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

 Wenn kein Versuch unternommen wird, SARS-CoV-2 auszurotten, wird es
schließlich endemisch und unausrottbar werden, mit hohen, nicht endenden Kosten
für die Welt in Bezug auf Wirtschaftswachstum, menschliche Gesundheit und
Menschenleben. Die derzeitige Strategie der meisten Regierungen besteht darin

Wenn kein Versuch unternommen wird, SARS-CoV-2 auszurotten, wird es schließlich endemisch und unausrottbar werden, mit hohen, nicht endenden Kosten für die Welt in Bezug auf Wirtschaftswachstum, menschliche Gesundheit und Menschenleben. Die derzeitige Strategie der meisten Regierungen besteht darin, restriktive Maßnahmen zu ergreifen, wenn das Virus die Krankenhäuser zu überschwemmen droht und diese Beschränkungen wieder zu lockern, wenn diese Gefahr zurückgeht. Diese Strategie kann die hochinfektiöse Delta-Variante, die einen geschätzten R0-Wert von 6 bis 9 hat, nicht eliminieren. Regelmäßige Sperrungen werden sich in Zukunft kaum vermeiden lassen.

Eine Ausrottung ist jedoch möglich, ebenso wie eine weltweit schnell erreichte Herdenimmunität, die den R0-Wert dauerhaft auf unter 1 senkt und somit zum Verschwinden des Virus führen wird. Entscheidend dafür ist Ivermectin, ein Medikament, das billig und leicht verfügbar ist und in den meisten Ländern hergestellt werden kann. Eine kürzlich durchgeführte Metastudie hat gezeigt, dass die prophylaktische Anwendung von Ivermectin eine Infektion mit dem Virus im Durchschnitt um 86 % verhindern kann, was der Wirksamkeit von Impfstoffen sehr ähnlich ist. Die, die nicht geimpft wurden und nicht immun sind, weil sie Covid-19 überstanden haben, könnten sich mit Ivermectin sehr effektiv vor einer Infektion schützen.  Die Ausrottung erfordert den Einsatz aller in der Grafik gezeigten Instrumente: künftige Generationen könnte es erspart bleiben mit dieser Plage leben zu müssen.  

 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

 Modelling of the SARS-Cov-2 viral outbreak using an SEIR model plus specific extensions to model demand for health and care resources.     The model includes biths and deaths, and migration to accommodate import and export of infected individuals from other areas.     Healthcare resources identifie
Modelling of the SARS-Cov-2 viral outbreak using an SEIR model plus specific extensions to model demand for health and care resources.

The model includes biths and deaths, and migration to accommodate import and export of infected individuals from other areas.

Healthcare resources identifies need for hospital beds and critical care.

The model is uses arrays to reflect the different impacts of modelled parameters by age and sex.