Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an already very weak  and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture.  As events unfold in the next few months,  we may discover that it is too late to act,  that our reign on this planet has, indeed,  come to an abrupt end?  

A simple ABM example illustrating how the SEIR model works. It can be a basis for experimenting with learning the impact of human behavior on the spread of a virus, e.g. COVID-19.

The System Dynamics Model presents the the COVID-19 status in Puerto Princesa City

Model di samping adalah model SEIR yang telah dimodifikasi sehingga dapat digunakan untuk menyimulasikan perkembangan penyebaran COVID-19.

Introduction;

This model shows COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie have some impact for local economy situation and government policy. The main government policy is lockdown during the spreading period which can help reduce the infected rate, and also increase the test scale to help susceptible confirm their situation.

Variables;

Infection rate, Death rate, Recovery rate, test rate, susceptible, immunity rate, economy growth rate

These variables are influenced by different situation.

When cases over 10, government will implement lockdown policy.

Conclusion;

When cases increase too much , they will influence the economic situation.

Interesting insights:

If the recover rate is higher, more people will recover from the disease. It seems to be a positive sign. However, it would lead to a higher number of recovered people and more susceptible. As a result, there would be more cases, and would have a negative impact on the economic growth. 

Andy Long

A spatially aware, agent based model of disease spread. There are three classes of people: susceptible (healthy), infected (sick and infectious), and recovered (healthy and temporarily immune).

A simple ABM example illustrating how the SEIR model works. It can be a basis for experimenting with learning the impact of human behavior on the spread of a virus, e.g. COVID-19.

A simple ABM example illustrating how the SEIR model works. It can be a basis for experimenting with learning the impact of human behavior on the spread of a virus, e.g. COVID-19.

Model di samping adalah model SEIR yang telah dimodifikasi sehingga dapat digunakan untuk menyimulasikan perkembangan penyebaran COVID-19.

Check how different times of recovery and deths in cases of covid-19 infulence 2 key mortality indicators:

SARS-CoV-19 spread in different countries

This basic pandemic model explores the dynamics and healthcare burden associated with of a novel infection.