A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover       Assumptions   Govt policy reduces infection and
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.

Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.

A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.  This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.

Interesting insights

Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases.  The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative. 




35 8 months ago
 This Model was developed from the SEIR model (Susceptible, Enposed, Infected, Recovered). It was designed to explore relationships between the government policies regarding the COVID-19 and its impact upon the economy as well as well-being of residents.    Assumptions:   Government policies will be

This Model was developed from the SEIR model (Susceptible, Enposed, Infected, Recovered). It was designed to explore relationships between the government policies regarding the COVID-19 and its impact upon the economy as well as well-being of residents. 

Assumptions:

Government policies will be triggered when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less;


Government Policies affect the economy and the COV-19 infection negatively at the same time;


Government Policies can be divided as 4 categories, which are Social Distancing, Business Restrictions, Lock Down, Travel Ban, and Hygiene Level, and they represented strength of different aspects;

 

Parameters:

Policies like Social Distancing, Business Restrictions, Lock Down, Travel Ban all have different weights and caps, and they add up to 1 in total;

 

There are 4 cases on March 9th; 

Ro= 5.7  Ro is the reproduction number, here it means one person with COVID-19 can potentially transmit the coronavirus to 5 to 6 people;


Interesting Insights:

Economy will grow at the beginning few weeks then becoming stagnant for a very long time;

Exposed people are significant, which requires early policies intervention such as social distancing.

16 9 months ago
This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.    It is assumed that the Government intervention is triggered when the COVID-19 case is equal to or more than 10.      Government interventi
This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.

It is assumed that the Government intervention is triggered when the COVID-19 case is equal to or more than 10. 

Government intervention - lock down the state, suppress the development of COVID-19 effectively. It is related to most of people stay at home to reduce the exposure in public area.
On the other hand, it also bring the economy of Burnie in the recession, as no tourists, no dining out activities and decrease in money spending in the city.
 Simple epidemiological model for Burnie, Tasmania   SIR: Susceptible to infection - Infected - Recovery, Government responses and Economic impacts           Government policy is activated when there are 10 or fewer reported cases of COVID-19. The more people tested, the fewer people became infected
Simple epidemiological model for Burnie, Tasmania
SIR: Susceptible to infection - Infected - Recovery, Government responses and Economic impacts  

Government policy is activated when there are 10 or fewer reported cases of COVID-19. The more people tested, the fewer people became infected. So the government's policy is to reduce infections by increasing the number of people tested and starting early. At the same time, it has slowed the economic growth (which, according to the model,  will stop for next 52 weeks).
5 9 months ago
   Explanation of the Model    This is a Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania which shows the government actions in response to the pandemic COVID-19 and its affects on the Economy. The government health policy changes depending on the reported cases, which is a dependent upon the testing
Explanation of the Model
This is a Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania which shows the government actions in response to the pandemic COVID-19 and its affects on the Economy. The government health policy changes depending on the reported cases, which is a dependent upon the testing rate. 

Assumptions
Lockdown and travel ban were the main factor in government policy. It negatively impacts on the Economic growth as individuals are not going out which is directly affects the business around the world, in this insight 'Burnie'. This reduces the economic growth and the factors positively effecting economic growth such as Tourism.

Government policies has a negative impact on Exposer of individuals. Moreover, it also has a negative impact on chances of infection when exposed as well as other general infection rate.
 

Interesting Insight 
There is a significant impact of test rating on COVID-19 outbreak. Higher rates increases the government involvement, which decreases cases as well as the total death. 
In contrast, lower testing rates increase the death rate and cases. 

Tourism which plays a avital role in Tasmanian Economy greatly affects the Economic Growth. The decline of Tourism in parts of Tasmania such as Burnie, would directly decrease the economy of Tasmania.


  
6 9 months ago
Description:   This is a system dynamics model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie which shows the process of infections and how  government responses, impact on the local economy.       First part is outbreak model, we can know that when people is infected, there are two situations. One is that he recov
Description:

This is a system dynamics model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie which shows the process of infections and how  government responses, impact on the local economy.  

First part is outbreak model, we can know that when people is infected, there are two situations. One is that he recovers from  treatment, but even if he recovered, the immunity loss rate increase, makes him to become infected again. The other situation is death. In this outbreak, the government's health policies (ban on non-essential trips, closure of non-essential retailers, limits on public gatherings and quarantine )  help to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 new cases. Moreover,  government legislation is dependent on  number of COVID-19 cases and testing rates. 

 Second part: the model of Govt legislation and economic impact. Gov policy can help to reduce infection rate and local economy at same way. The increase of number of COVID-19 cases has a negative impact on local Tourism industry and economic growth rate. On the other hand, Govt legislation also can be change when reported COVID-19 case are less or equal to 10.






        Model description:     This model is designed to simulate the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie in Tasmania. It also tell us the impact of economic policies on outbreak models and economic growth.       Variables:    The simulation takes into account the following variables and its adjusting ra

Model description:

This model is designed to simulate the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie in Tasmania. It also tell us the impact of economic policies on outbreak models and economic growth.

 

Variables:

The simulation takes into account the following variables and its adjusting range: 

 

On the left of the model, the variables are: infection rate( from 0 to 0.25), recovery rate( from 0 to 1), death rate( from 0 to 1), immunity loss rate( from 0 to 1), test rate ( from 0 to 1), which are related to Covid-19.

 

In the middle of the model, the variables are: social distancing( from 0 to 0.018), lock down( from 0 to 0.015), quarantine( from 0 to 0.015), vaccination promotion( from 0 to 0.019), border restriction( from 0 to 0.03), which are related to governmental policies.

 

On the right of the model, the variables are: economic growth rate( from 0 to 0.3), which are related to economic growth.

 

Assumptions:

(1) The model is influenced by various variables and can produce different results. The following values based on the estimation, which differ from actual values in reality.

 

(2) Here are just five government policies that have had an impact on infection rates in epidemic models. On the other hand, these policies will also have an impact on economic growth, which may be positive or negative.

 

(3) Governmental policy will only be applied when reported cases are 10 or more. 

 

(4) This model lists two typical economic activities, namely e-commerce and physical stores. Government policies affect these two types of economic activity separately. They together with economic growth rate have an impact on economic growth.

 

Enlightening insights:

(1) In the first two weeks, the number of susceptible people will be significantly reduced due to the high infection rate, and low recovery rate as well as government policies. The number of susceptible people fall slightly two weeks later. Almost all declines have a fluctuating downward trend.

 

(2) Government policies have clearly controlled the number of deaths, suspected cases and COVID-19 cases.

 

(3) The government's restrictive policies had a negative impact on economic growth, but e-commerce economy, physical stores and economic growth rate all played a positive role in economic growth, which enabled the economy to stay in a relatively stable state during the epidemic.

8 months ago
    INTRODUCTION   

 This is a balanced loop model that demonstrates how COVID
19 outbreak in Burnie and the response of the government (e.g. by enforcing health
policies: Lockdown; quarantine, non-necessary business closure; border closure)
affect the local economy.  This model has 13 positive loo

INTRODUCTION

This is a balanced loop model that demonstrates how COVID 19 outbreak in Burnie and the response of the government (e.g. by enforcing health policies: Lockdown; quarantine, non-necessary business closure; border closure) affect the local economy.  This model has 13 positive loops and seven negative loops.  Government response is dependent on the number of reported COVID-19 cases which in turn thought to be dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered from COVID 19 and dead. Economic activity is dependent on the economic growth rate, increased in online shopping, increased in unemployment, number of people who do not obey the rules, COVID 19 cases and health policies.

 ASSUMPTIONS

 · Both infection and economic growth is reduced by enforcing government policies

 · However, the negative effect of government policies is reduced by the number of people who do not obey government health policies

 · Govt policies are enforced when the reported COVID-19 case are 10 or greater.

 ·     Number of COVID cases reported is dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered and dead.

 ·   The higher number of COVID-19 cases have a negative effect on local economy. This phenomena is known as negative signalling. 

 ·   Government policies have a negative effect on economic activity because health policies limit both social and economic activities which directly or indirectly affect the economy in Burnie .  

 ·  This negative effect is somewhat reduced by the increase in online shopping and the number of people who do not obey heath rules.

 INTERESTING INSIGHTS

The test ratings seem to play a vital role in controlling COVID-19 outbreak. Higher Rates of COVID testings decrease the number of COVID 19 deaths and number of infected. This is because higher rates of testing accelerate the government involvement (as the government intervention is triggered earlier, 10 COVID cases mark is reached earlier). Delaying the government intervention by reducing the COVID testing rates increases the death rates and number of infected. 

Increased testing rates allow the figures (deaths, susceptible, infected) to reach a plateau quickly. 





  ABOUT THE MODEL   This is a dynamic model that shows the correlation between the
health-related policies implemented by the Government in response to COVID-19 outbreak
in Burnie, Tasmania, and the policies’ impact on the Economic activity of the
area.   

   ASSUMPTIONS  

 The increase in the num

ABOUT THE MODEL

This is a dynamic model that shows the correlation between the health-related policies implemented by the Government in response to COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania, and the policies’ impact on the Economic activity of the area.

 ASSUMPTIONS

The increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is directly proportional to the increase in the Government policies in the infected region. The Government policies negatively impact the economy of Burnie, Tasmania.

INTERESTING INSIGHTS

1. When the borders are closed by the government, the economy is severely affected by the decrease of revenue generated by the Civil aviation/Migration rate. As the number of COVID-19 cases increase, the number of people allowed to enter Australian borders will also decrease by the government. 

2. The Economic activity sharply increases and stays in uniformity. 

3. The death rate drastically decreased as we increased test rate by 90%.


 Introduction:  This model aims to show that how the Tasmania government's COVID-19 policy can address the spread of the pandemic and in what way these policies can damage the economy.        Assumption:    Variables such as infection rate, death rate and the recovery rate are influenced by the actu
Introduction:
This model aims to show that how the Tasmania government's COVID-19 policy can address the spread of the pandemic and in what way these policies can damage the economy.

Assumption:
Variables such as infection rate, death rate and the recovery rate are influenced by the actual situation.
The government will implement stricter travel bans and social distant policies as there are more cases.
Government policies reduce infection and limit economic growth at the same time.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.

Interesting insights:
A higher testing rate will make the infection increase and the infection rate will slightly increase as well. 
Government policies are effective to lower the infection, however, they will damage the local economy. While the higher number of COVID-19 cases also influences economic activities.
8 months ago
  Sike Liu's model on COVID-19 & Burnie Economy       This model contains three parts, the first part stimulates the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in Burnie; the second part describes possible government policies on pandemic control; and the third part examines the possible negative impact on econo
Sike Liu's model on COVID-19 & Burnie Economy

 

This model contains three parts, the first part stimulates the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in Burnie; the second part describes possible government policies on pandemic control; and the third part examines the possible negative impact on economy growth from those policies.


Assumptions:

1. The state boarder has already been closed and all new arrivals in Burnie need to enter a fixed period of quarantine. And the quarantine rate measures the strength of the government policy on quarantine (such as length and method).

2. Patient zero refers to the initial number of undetected virus carriers in the community.

3. Government policies such as social distancing, compulsory mask and lock down could effectively reduce community’s exposure to the virus.

4. Social distancing and compulsory mask will be triggered when COVID-19 cases reach and beyond 10 and lock down will be triggered when cases reach and beyond 1000.

4. High vaccine rate, on the other hand, could effectively reduce the exposed people’s chance of getting infected.

5. Only when vaccine rate reaches 0.6 and beyond, then the spread of COVID-19 will be significantly slowed.

6. Vaccine can’t 100% prevent the infection of the virus.

7.The infected people will need to be tested so that they could be counted as COVID-19 cases and the test rate decides the percentage of infected people being tested.

8. After people recover, there are chances of them losing immunity and the immunity lost rate measures that.

9. The COVID-19 cases could also be detected at quarantine facilities, and the quarantine process will effectively reduce the Infection and exposure rate.

10. Social distancing and compulsory mask wearing are considered as light restrictions in this model and will have less impact on both supply and demand side, and lockdown is considered as heavy restriction which will have strong negative impact on economy growth in this model.

11. In this model, light restrictions will have more negative impacts on the demand side compared to the supply side.

12. In this model, both supply side and demand side will power the economy growth.

 

Interest hints:

The vaccine could significantly reduce the spread of COVID-19 and effectively reduce the number of COVID-19 cases.

The number of the COVID-19 cases will eventually be stabilized when the number of susceptible is running out in a community (reached community immunity).

Quarantine could slightly reduce the cases numbers, but the most effective way is to reduce the number of new arrivals.

8 months ago
 This model is to explain the COVID-19 outbreak in Brunie Island, Tasmania, Australia, and the relationship between it and the government policies , also with the local economy.      This model is upgraded on the basis of the SIR model and adds more variables.      A large number of COVID-19 cases w
This model is to explain the COVID-19 outbreak in Brunie Island, Tasmania, Australia, and the relationship between it and the government policies , also with the local economy.

This model is upgraded on the basis of the SIR model and adds more variables.

A large number of COVID-19 cases will have a negative impact on the local economy. But if the number of cases is too small, it will have no impact on the macro economy

Government policy will help control the growth of COVID-19 cases by getting people tested.


9 months ago
  Model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania    When reported COVID-19 cases begin to show a rapid increase, the government will initiate control policies to deal with the spread.As the number of people tested increases and measures such as isolation and medical assistance are implemented, the n

Model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

When reported COVID-19 cases begin to show a rapid increase, the government will initiate control policies to deal with the spread.As the number of people tested increases and measures such as isolation and medical assistance are implemented, the number of people infected will decline rapidly.Therefore, the government's policy is to reduce and eliminate sources of transmission by increasing the number of tests and initiating control measures.At the same time, it also shows the negative impact of economic growth, which according to the model will stop in the next 20 weeks.

 This model bases on the SIR model aims to indicate the relationship between the lockdown policy of the government for combating with COVID-19 and the economic activity in Burnie Tasmania during the pandemic.      This model assumes that more COVID-19 cases will lead to the more serious lockdown pol
This model bases on the SIR model aims to indicate the relationship between the lockdown policy of the government for combating with COVID-19 and the economic activity in Burnie Tasmania during the pandemic. 

This model assumes that more COVID-19 cases will lead to the more serious lockdown policy of the local government, which indirectly affect the economic activities and economic growth. The primary reason is that the lockdown policy force people to stay at home and reduce the chance to work and consume.

The simulation trend of the model is that the economy will keep a steady increase when the serious government policy reduces the COVID-19 spreading speed rate.

9 months ago
   Introduction:        This model demonstrates the COVID-19 outbreak in Bernie, Tasmania, and shows the relationship between coVID-19 outbreaks, government policy and the local economy. The spread of pandemics is influenced by many factors, such as infection rates, mortality rates, recovery rates a

Introduction:

This model demonstrates the COVID-19 outbreak in Bernie, Tasmania, and shows the relationship between coVID-19 outbreaks, government policy and the local economy. The spread of pandemics is influenced by many factors, such as infection rates, mortality rates, recovery rates and government policies. Although government policy has brought the Covid-19 outbreak under control, it has had a negative impact on the financial system, and the increase in COVID-19 cases has had a negative impact on economic growth.

 

Assumptions:

The model is based on different infection rates, including infection rate, mortality rate, detection rate and recovery rate. There is a difference between a real case and a model. Since the model setup will only be initiated when 10 cases are reported, the impact on infection rates and economic growth will be reduced.

 

Interesting insights:

Even as infection rates fall, mortality rates continue to rise. However, the rise in testing rates and government health policies contribute to the stability of mortality. The model thinks that COVID-19 has a negative impact on offline industry and has a positive impact on online industry.

8 months ago
[The Model of COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak in Burnie, TAS]   A model of COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from the government with the impact on the local economy and medical supply.      It is assumed that the government policy is triggered and rely on reported COVID-19 cases when the confirmed cases
[The Model of COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak in Burnie, TAS]

A model of COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from the government with the impact on the local economy and medical supply. 

It is assumed that the government policy is triggered and rely on reported COVID-19 cases when the confirmed cases are 10 or less. 

Interesting insights
The infection rate will decline if the government increase the testing ranges, meanwhile,  the more confirmed cases will increase the pressure on hospital capacity and generate more demand for medical resources, which will promote government policy intervention to narrow the demand gap and  affect economic performance by increasing hospital construction with financial investment.

9 months ago
  Explanation:    Explanation:  This model presents the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie and how the government reacts to it. Moreover, the model also illustrates how the economy in Burnie is impacted by the pandemic. The possible stages of residents when the infectious disease spreads in Burnie can be c
Explanation:
Explanation:
This model presents the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie and how the government reacts to it. Moreover, the model also illustrates how the economy in Burnie is impacted by the pandemic. The possible stages of residents when the infectious disease spreads in Burnie can be concluded as Susceptible, Infection and Recovery, which are used as the main data in this model. However, the improvement of decreasing of reported infection rates of this infectious disease and increasing of recovery rates are contributed by the implementation of the Government Health Policy. 

Assumption
The decrease of both infection rate and economic growth are all influenced by the Government Health Policy simultaneously. The Government Health Policy is only triggered when there are 10 cases reported. However, the increase in reporting COVID-19 cases affects economic growth negatively. 

Interesting Insights:
There are two interesting insights that have been revealed from the simulation. First, the death rate continuously increased even though the infection rate goes down. However, the increase in testing rates contributed to the stability of the death rate towards the end of the week. Moreover, higher testing rates also trigger faster government intervention, which can reduce infectious cases.  Second, as the Government Health Policy limited the chance of going out and shopping, the economic growth is negative due to the higher cases. 

8 months ago
   Introduction    This model simulates the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie, the government reactions, as well as the economic impact. The government's strategy is based on the number of COVID-19 cases reported and testing rates and recovered.       Assumptions    In the same trend that government poli
Introduction
This model simulates the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie, the government reactions, as well as the economic impact. The government's strategy is based on the number of COVID-19 cases reported and testing rates and recovered.

Assumptions
In the same trend that government policy decreases infection, it also reduces economic growth.
When there are ten or fewer COVID-19 cases reported, government policy is triggered.
The economy suffers as a result of an increase in COVID-19 cases.

Interesting insights
The higher testing rates appear to result in a more quick government response, resulting in fewer infectious cases. However, it has a negative influence on the economy.
8 months ago
  Explanation   This model shows the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie and how the government policy impacts the economy. The possible phases when the infectious disease spreads in Burnie can be labelled as Susceptible, Infection and Recovery, which are main factors in the model. It is concluded that the
Explanation
This model shows the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie and how the government policy impacts the economy. The possible phases when the infectious disease spreads in Burnie can be labelled as Susceptible, Infection and Recovery, which are main factors in the model. It is concluded that the government policy can reduce the infectious disease and also the impact in the overall economy.

Assumption
The Government Healthy Policy will affect the decrease in the infection and economy growth rate at the same time.

The Government Health Policy is only triggered when there are more than 10 cases

The increase in number of COVID-19 cases can affect negatively towards the economic growth.

Interesting Insights:
The Government's vaccination promote will reduce the possibility of spreading the infectious disease. 

When vaccination rate increase, the dead, infected people and susceptible group will all decrease. This reveals that the crucial role in government's vaccination promote program.

When there is more than 10 confirmed cases, the government policies can effectively reduce the infections and the overall economic activities.


8 months ago
 This model indicate indicates the modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government policies with the effect on the local economy. Model was occurred at Burnie, Tasmania. The model mainly contains three parts: COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, four differences government policies and what the imp

This model indicate indicates the modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government policies with the effect on the local economy. Model was occurred at Burnie, Tasmania. The model mainly contains three parts: COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, four differences government policies and what the impact on economy from those policies.

 

Assumptions:

(1) Various variables influence the model, which can result in varied outcomes. The following values are based on an estimate and may differ from actual values. Government initiatives are focused at reducing Covid-19 infections and, as a result, affecting (both positive and negative) economic growth.

 

(2) 42% of infected people will recovery. 10% of people who are infected will die and the rate relatively higher due to the much old people living in Burnie, Tasmania.

78% of cases get tested.

 

(3) Government policy will only be implemented when there are ten or more recorded cases. Four government policies have had influences on infection.  

 

(4) The rising number of instances will have a negative impact on Burnie's economic growth.

 

Insights:

1. As a result of the government's covid 19 rules, fewer people will be vulnerable. Less people going to be susceptible.

 

2. After the government policy intervention, there is a effectively reduce of infected people.

 

3. Overall, there is no big differences of economic performance from the graph, might due to the positive and negative effect of economy. And after two weeks, the economy maintained a level of development without much decline.

8 months ago
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover       Assumptions   Govt policy reduces infection and
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.

Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.

A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.  This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.

Interesting insights

Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases.  The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative. 




9 months ago
 Simple epidemiological model for Burnie, Tasmania   SIR: Susceptible to infection - Infected - Recovery, Government responses and Economic impacts           Government policy is activated when there are 10 or fewer reported cases of COVID-19. The more people tested, the fewer people became infected
Simple epidemiological model for Burnie, Tasmania
SIR: Susceptible to infection - Infected - Recovery, Government responses and Economic impacts  

Government policy is activated when there are 10 or fewer reported cases of COVID-19. The more people tested, the fewer people became infected. So the government's policy is to reduce infections by increasing the number of people tested and starting early. At the same time, it has slowed the economic growth (which, according to the model,  will stop for next 52 weeks).
This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.    It is assumed that the Government intervention is triggered when the COVID-19 case is equal to or more than 10.      Government interventi
This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.

It is assumed that the Government intervention is triggered when the COVID-19 case is equal to or more than 10. 

Government intervention - lock down the state, suppress the development of COVID-19 effectively. It is related to most of people stay at home to reduce the exposure in public area.
On the other hand, it also bring the economy of Burnie in the recession, as no tourists, no dining out activities and decrease in money spending in the city.
9 months ago