These models and simulations have been tagged “Government-Policy”.
This model simulates a COVID outbreak occurring at Burnie, Tasmania.
It links the extent to the pandemic with governments intervention policies
aiming to limit the spread of the virus. The other part of the model illustrates
how will the COVID statistics and the government enforcement jointly influence
the economic environment in the community. A number of variables are taken into
account, indicating positive or negative relationship in the infection and the
economy model respectively.
Government takes responsive actions when the
number of acquired cases exceeds 10.
Government’s prompt actions, involving closure
of the state border, lockdown within the city, plans on mandatory vaccination
and testing, effectively control the infection status.
Economic activities are reduced due to stagnation
in statewide tourism, closure of brick-and-mortar businesses, and increased unemployment
rate, as results of government restrictions.
Government’s rapid intervention can effectively reduce the
infected cases. The national vaccination rollout campaign raises vaccination
rate in Australians, and particularly influence the death rate in the infection
model. Please drag the slider of vaccination to a higher rate and run the model
to compare the outcomes.
Although local economy is negatively affected by government restriction
policies, consumer demand in online shopping and government support payments
neutralize the negative impact on economy and maintain the level of economic
activities when infections get controlled.
This is a balanced loop model that demonstrates how COVID
19 outbreak in Burnie and the response of the government (e.g. by enforcing health
policies: Lockdown; quarantine, non-necessary business closure; border closure)
affect the local economy. This model has 13 positive loops and seven negative loops. Government response
is dependent on the number of reported COVID-19 cases which in turn thought to be dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered from COVID 19 and
dead. Economic activity is dependent on the economic growth rate, increased in online shopping, increased in unemployment, number of people who do not obey the rules, COVID 19 cases and health policies.
· Both infection and economic growth is reduced by
enforcing government policies
· However, the negative effect of government policies is reduced
by the number of people who do not obey government health policies
· Govt policies are enforced when the reported
COVID-19 case are 10 or greater.
· Number of COVID cases reported is dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered and dead.
· The higher number of COVID-19 cases have a
negative effect on local economy. This phenomena is known as negative signalling.
· Government policies have a negative effect on economic activity because health policies limit both social and economic activities which directly or indirectly affect the economy in Burnie .
· This negative effect is somewhat reduced by the
increase in online shopping and the number of people who do not obey heath
The test ratings seem to play a vital role in controlling COVID-19 outbreak. Higher Rates of COVID testings decrease the number of COVID 19 deaths and number of infected. This is because higher rates of testing accelerate the
government involvement (as the government intervention is triggered earlier, 10 COVID cases mark is reached earlier). Delaying the government intervention by reducing the COVID testing rates increases the death rates and number of infected.
Increased testing rates allow the figures (deaths, susceptible, infected) to reach a plateau quickly.
The model shows Covid-19 situations in Burnie, Tasmania. Under such circumstances, how the state government deals with the pandemic and how economy changes will be illustrated. The relationship between government policy and economic activities under Covid-19 outbreaks will be explained through different variables.
Government policy negatively affects Covid-19 outbreaks and economic activities.
Covid-19 outbreaks also has negative effects on economic growth.
There are several fixed and adjusted variables.
1. COVID-19 Outbreaks
Fixed variables: infection rate, recovery rate
Adjusted variables: immunity loss rate
2. Government Policy
Adjusted variables: lockdown, social distancing, testing, vaccination
3. Economic impact
Fixed variables: tourism
Adjusted variables: economic growth rate
Tourism seems to be the most effective way to bring back economic growth in Tasmania, and it takes time to recover from Covid-19.
Government policies tend to have negative influences on economic growth.