Burnie COVID-19 outbreak demo model version 2
AssumptionsGovt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.
Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania
This Model was developed from the SEIR model (Susceptible, Enposed, Infected, Recovered). It was designed to explore relationships between the government policies regarding the COVID-19 and its impact upon the economy as well as well-being of residents.
Government policies will be triggered when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less;
Government Policies affect the economy and the COV-19 infection negatively at the same time;
Government Policies can be divided as 4 categories, which are Social Distancing, Business Restrictions, Lock Down, Travel Ban, and Hygiene Level, and they represented strength of different aspects;
Policies like Social Distancing, Business Restrictions, Lock Down, Travel Ban all have different weights and caps, and they add up to 1 in total;
There are 4 cases on March 9th;
Ro= 5.7 Ro is the reproduction number, here it means one person with COVID-19 can potentially transmit the coronavirus to 5 to 6 people;
Economy will grow at the beginning few weeks then becoming stagnant for a very long time;
Exposed people are significant, which requires early policies intervention such as social distancing.
BMA708_Assignment 3_Nguyen Dang Khoa Vo_520272_COVID-19 outbreak and Burnie economy
Model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania
This model was designed from the SIR model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19 outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.
The government policy is triggered when the
number of infected is more than ten.
The government policies will take a negative effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.
We set some fixed and adjusted variables.
Covid-19 outbreak's parameter
Fixed parameter: Background disease.
Adjusted parameters: Infection rate, recovery rate. Immunity loss rate can be changed from vaccination rate.
Government policy's parameters
Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)
Fixed parameter: Tourism
Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)
An increased vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system still needs a long time to recover in both cases.
BMA708- Shakila Bethmage- 548351 - COVID 19 Outbreak in Burnie
This is a balanced loop model that demonstrates how COVID 19 outbreak in Burnie and the response of the government (e.g. by enforcing health policies: Lockdown; quarantine, non-necessary business closure; border closure) affect the local economy. This model has 13 positive loops and seven negative loops. Government response is dependent on the number of reported COVID-19 cases which in turn thought to be dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered from COVID 19 and dead. Economic activity is dependent on the economic growth rate, increased in online shopping, increased in unemployment, number of people who do not obey the rules, COVID 19 cases and health policies.
· Both infection and economic growth is reduced by enforcing government policies
· However, the negative effect of government policies is reduced by the number of people who do not obey government health policies
· Govt policies are enforced when the reported COVID-19 case are 10 or greater.
· Number of COVID cases reported is dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered and dead.
· The higher number of COVID-19 cases have a
negative effect on local economy. This phenomena is known as negative signalling.
· Government policies have a negative effect on economic activity because health policies limit both social and economic activities which directly or indirectly affect the economy in Burnie .
· This negative effect is somewhat reduced by the increase in online shopping and the number of people who do not obey heath rules.
The test ratings seem to play a vital role in controlling COVID-19 outbreak. Higher Rates of COVID testings decrease the number of COVID 19 deaths and number of infected. This is because higher rates of testing accelerate the government involvement (as the government intervention is triggered earlier, 10 COVID cases mark is reached earlier). Delaying the government intervention by reducing the COVID testing rates increases the death rates and number of infected.
Increased testing rates allow the figures (deaths, susceptible, infected) to reach a plateau quickly.
Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie_Guoyu Shen
Assumption:Variables such as infection rate, death rate and the recovery rate are influenced by the actual situation.The government will implement stricter travel bans and social distant policies as there are more cases.Government policies reduce infection and limit economic growth at the same time.A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.
Interesting insights:A higher testing rate will make the infection increase and the infection rate will slightly increase as well. Government policies are effective to lower the infection, however, they will damage the local economy. While the higher number of COVID-19 cases also influences economic activities.
Burnie COVID-19 outbreaks and economic impacts_Pui Chu Daisy Cheung 524767
It is assumed that the Government intervention is triggered when the COVID-19 case is equal to or more than 10.
Government intervention - lock down the state, suppress the development of COVID-19 effectively. It is related to most of people stay at home to reduce the exposure in public area.On the other hand, it also bring the economy of Burnie in the recession, as no tourists, no dining out activities and decrease in money spending in the city.
Model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania (Yue Xiang 512994)
Government policy is activated when there are 10 or fewer reported cases of COVID-19. The more people tested, the fewer people became infected. So the government's policy is to reduce infections by increasing the number of people tested and starting early. At the same time, it has slowed the economic growth (which, according to the model, will stop for next 52 weeks).
Sample Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania by Yim Fong Ng (544885)
This model is designed to simulate the Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania by estimating several factors such as exposed population, infection rate, testing rate, recovery rate, death rate and immunity loss. The model also simulates the measures implemented by the government which will impact on the local infection and economy.
Government policies will reduce the mobility of the population as well as the infection. In addition, economic activities in the tourism and hospitality industry will suffer negative influences from the government measures. However, essential businesses like supermarkets will benefit from the health policies on the contrary.
Infection rate, recovery rate, death rate, testing rate are the variables to the cases of Covid-19. On the other hand, the number of cases is also a variable to the government policies, which directly influences the number of exposed.
The GDP is dependent on the variables of economic activities. Nonetheless, the government’s lockdown measure has also become the variable to the economic activities.
Government policies are effective to curb infection by reducing the number of exposed when the case number is greater than 10. The economy becomes stagnant when the case spikes up but it climbs up again when the number of cases is under control.
BMA 708, Assessment Tast 3: Complex System, Burnie COVID-19 outbreak, Diprina Shakya-519673
AssumptionsLockdown and travel ban were the main factor in government policy. It negatively impacts on the Economic growth as individuals are not going out which is directly affects the business around the world, in this insight 'Burnie'. This reduces the economic growth and the factors positively effecting economic growth such as Tourism.
Government policies has a negative impact on Exposer of individuals. Moreover, it also has a negative impact on chances of infection when exposed as well as other general infection rate.
Interesting Insight There is a significant impact of test rating on COVID-19 outbreak. Higher rates increases the government involvement, which decreases cases as well as the total death. In contrast, lower testing rates increase the death rate and cases.
Tourism which plays a avital role in Tasmanian Economy greatly affects the Economic Growth. The decline of Tourism in parts of Tasmania such as Burnie, would directly decrease the economy of Tasmania.
Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania
This model is designed to simulate the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie in Tasmania. It also tell us the impact of economic policies on outbreak models and economic growth.
The simulation takes into account the following variables and its adjusting range:
On the left of the model, the variables are: infection rate( from 0 to 0.25), recovery rate( from 0 to 1), death rate( from 0 to 1), immunity loss rate( from 0 to 1), test rate ( from 0 to 1), which are related to Covid-19.
In the middle of the model, the variables are: social distancing( from 0 to 0.018), lock down( from 0 to 0.015), quarantine( from 0 to 0.015), vaccination promotion( from 0 to 0.019), border restriction( from 0 to 0.03), which are related to governmental policies.
On the right of the model, the variables are: economic growth rate( from 0 to 0.3), which are related to economic growth.
(1) The model is influenced by various variables and can produce different results. The following values based on the estimation, which differ from actual values in reality.
(2) Here are just five government policies that have had an impact on infection rates in epidemic models. On the other hand, these policies will also have an impact on economic growth, which may be positive or negative.
(3) Governmental policy will only be applied when reported cases are 10 or more.
(4) This model lists two typical economic activities, namely e-commerce and physical stores. Government policies affect these two types of economic activity separately. They together with economic growth rate have an impact on economic growth.
(1) In the first two weeks, the number of susceptible people will be significantly reduced due to the high infection rate, and low recovery rate as well as government policies. The number of susceptible people fall slightly two weeks later. Almost all declines have a fluctuating downward trend.
(2) Government policies have clearly controlled the number of deaths, suspected cases and COVID-19 cases.
(3) The government's restrictive policies had a negative impact on economic growth, but e-commerce economy, physical stores and economic growth rate all played a positive role in economic growth, which enabled the economy to stay in a relatively stable state during the epidemic.
Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie(Yafei Shi 489576)
This is a system dynamics model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie which shows the process of infections and how government responses, impact on the local economy.
First part is outbreak model, we can know that when people is infected, there are two situations. One is that he recovers from treatment, but even if he recovered, the immunity loss rate increase, makes him to become infected again. The other situation is death. In this outbreak, the government's health policies (ban on non-essential trips, closure of non-essential retailers, limits on public gatherings and quarantine ) help to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 new cases. Moreover, government legislation is dependent on number of COVID-19 cases and testing rates.
Second part: the model of Govt legislation and economic impact. Gov policy can help to reduce infection rate and local economy at same way. The increase of number of COVID-19 cases has a negative impact on local Tourism industry and economic growth rate. On the other hand, Govt legislation also can be change when reported COVID-19 case are less or equal to 10.
Complex Systems How Burnie Tasmania dealt with Covid-19 Outbreak BMA708
This model is based on the SIR, Susceptible, Infection, Recovery (or Removed) These are the three possible states related to the members of the Burnie population when a contagious decease spreads.
The Government/Government Health Policy, played a big part in the successful decrease in Covid-19 infections. The Government enforced the following.
- No travel (interstate or international)
- Isolation within the residents homes
- Social distancing by 1.5m
- Non essential companies to be temporarily closed
- Limitations on public gatherings
- And limits on time and kilometers aloud to travel from ones home within a local community
This resulted in lower reported infection rates of Covid-19 and higher recovery rates.
In my opinion: When the first case was reported the Government could have been even faster to enforce these rules to decrease the fatality rates further for the Burnie, population.
Assumption: Government policies were only triggered when 10 cases were recorded.
Also, more cases that had been recorded effected the economic growth during this time.
Interesting Findings: In the simulation it shows as the death rates increases towards the end of the week, the rate of testing goes down. You would think that the government would have enforced a higher testing rate over the duration of this time to decrease the number of infections, exposed which would increase the recovery rates faster and more efficiently.
Figures have been determined by the population of Burnie being 19,380 at the time of assignment.
Model of Covid-19 outbreaks at Burnie (Yingchao Yang,503757)
This model assumes that if the COVID-19 cases are more than 10, the government will take action such as quarantine and lockdown at the area. These policy can indirectly affect the local economy in many different way. At the same time, strict policy may be essential for combating Covid-19.
From the simulation of the model, we can clearly see that the economy of Burine will be steady increase when government successfully reduces the COVID-19 cased and make it spreading slower.
Interesting finding: In this pandemic, the testing rate and the recovery rate are important to stop Covid-19 spreading. Once the cases of Covid-19 less than 10, the government might stop intervention and the economy of Burnie will back to normal.
COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania (Rajaa Sajjad, 538837)
ABOUT THE MODEL
This is a dynamic model that shows the correlation between the health-related policies implemented by the Government in response to COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania, and the policies’ impact on the Economic activity of the area.
The increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is directly proportional to the increase in the Government policies in the infected region. The Government policies negatively impact the economy of Burnie, Tasmania.
1. When the borders are closed by the government, the economy is severely affected by the decrease of revenue generated by the Civil aviation/Migration rate. As the number of COVID-19 cases increase, the number of people allowed to enter Australian borders will also decrease by the government.
2. The Economic activity sharply increases and stays in uniformity.
3. The death rate drastically decreased as we increased test rate by 90%.
Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tamania ( WANTING BAO, 536865)
This model shows COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie have some impact for local economy situation and government policy. The main government policy is lockdown during the spreading period which can help reduce the infected rate, and also increase the test scale to help susceptible confirm their situation.
Infection rate, Death rate, Recovery rate, test rate, susceptible, immunity rate, economy growth rate
These variables are influenced by different situation.
When cases over 10, government will implement lockdown policy.
When cases increase too much , they will influence the economic situation.
If the recover rate is higher, more people will recover from the disease. It seems to be a positive sign. However, it would lead to a higher number of recovered people and more susceptible. As a result, there would be more cases, and would have a negative impact on the economic growth.
Burnie Covid Model, Zilin Huang 533476
This model is designed for the local government of Burnie, Tasmania, aiming to help with balancing COIVD-19 and economic impacts during a possible outbreak.
The model has been developed based upon the SIR model (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model used in epidemiology.
It lists several possible actions that can be taken by the government during a COVID-19 outbreak and provide the economic impact simulation.
The model allow users to Change the government policies factors (Strength of Policies) and simulate the total economic impact.
Interestingly, the government plicies largely help with controlling the COVID outbreak. However, the stronger the policies are, the larger impact on local economy
BMA708 Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie island. Ming Liu 501335
This model is upgraded on the basis of the SIR model and adds more variables.
A large number of COVID-19 cases will have a negative impact on the local economy. But if the number of cases is too small, it will have no impact on the macro economy
Government policy will help control the growth of COVID-19 cases by getting people tested.
Model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania (Yimeng Yao 448253)
Model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania
When reported COVID-19 cases begin to show a rapid increase, the government will initiate control policies to deal with the spread.As the number of people tested increases and measures such as isolation and medical assistance are implemented, the number of people infected will decline rapidly.Therefore, the government's policy is to reduce and eliminate sources of transmission by increasing the number of tests and initiating control measures.At the same time, it also shows the negative impact of economic growth, which according to the model will stop in the next 20 weeks.
Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania
This model demonstrates the COVID-19 outbreak in Bernie, Tasmania, and shows the relationship between coVID-19 outbreaks, government policy and the local economy. The spread of pandemics is influenced by many factors, such as infection rates, mortality rates, recovery rates and government policies. Although government policy has brought the Covid-19 outbreak under control, it has had a negative impact on the financial system, and the increase in COVID-19 cases has had a negative impact on economic growth.
The model is based on different infection rates, including infection rate, mortality rate, detection rate and recovery rate. There is a difference between a real case and a model. Since the model setup will only be initiated when 10 cases are reported, the impact on infection rates and economic growth will be reduced.
Even as infection rates fall, mortality rates continue to rise. However, the rise in testing rates and government health policies contribute to the stability of mortality. The model thinks that COVID-19 has a negative impact on offline industry and has a positive impact on online industry.
BMA708_Assignment 3_Sike Liu_567871_COVID-19 outbreak and Burnie economy
This model contains three parts, the first part stimulates the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in Burnie; the second part describes possible government policies on pandemic control; and the third part examines the possible negative impact on economy growth from those policies.
1. The state boarder has already been closed and all new arrivals in Burnie need to enter a fixed period of quarantine. And the quarantine rate measures the strength of the government policy on quarantine (such as length and method).
2. Patient zero refers to the initial number of undetected virus carriers in the community.
3. Government policies such as social distancing, compulsory mask and lock down could effectively reduce community’s exposure to the virus.
4. Social distancing and compulsory mask will be triggered when COVID-19 cases reach and beyond 10 and lock down will be triggered when cases reach and beyond 1000.
4. High vaccine rate, on the other hand, could effectively reduce the exposed people’s chance of getting infected.
5. Only when vaccine rate reaches 0.6 and beyond, then the spread of COVID-19 will be significantly slowed.
6. Vaccine can’t 100% prevent the infection of the virus.
7.The infected people will need to be tested so that they could be counted as COVID-19 cases and the test rate decides the percentage of infected people being tested.
8. After people recover, there are chances of them losing immunity and the immunity lost rate measures that.
9. The COVID-19 cases could also be detected at quarantine facilities, and the quarantine process will effectively reduce the Infection and exposure rate.
10. Social distancing and compulsory mask wearing are considered as light restrictions in this model and will have less impact on both supply and demand side, and lockdown is considered as heavy restriction which will have strong negative impact on economy growth in this model.
11. In this model, light restrictions will have more negative impacts on the demand side compared to the supply side.
12. In this model, both supply side and demand side will power the economy growth.
The vaccine could significantly reduce the spread of COVID-19 and effectively reduce the number of COVID-19 cases.
The number of the COVID-19 cases will eventually be stabilized when the number of susceptible is running out in a community (reached community immunity).
Quarantine could slightly reduce the cases numbers, but the most effective way is to reduce the number of new arrivals.
How Burnie, Tasmania can deal with a new outbreak of COVID-19
From the simulation result we can see that with the implementation of local government policies including travel ban and social distancing, the number of infected people will decrease. The number of recovered people will increase in the first 5 weeks but then experience a decrease.
In addition, with the implementation of local government policy, the economic environment in Burnie will be relatively stable when the number of COVID-19 cases is stable.
BMA708_Marketing insights_Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania_Jing XU
Assumptions can be made that effective government intervention can reduce the number of people infected, whereas the local economy is severely impacted.
1. When COVID-19 case are more than 10, government policy will be triggered.
2. Testing rate is very crucial to understanding the spread of the pandemic and responding appropriately.
BMA708 Task 3 Zijing Zeng 520737
Assumptions The social distance policy can reduce 80% of infection.
Interesting InsightsThe story tell the difference when social distance applied or not
Click on View story to start simulations
The Model of COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak in Burnie, TAS
A model of COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from the government with the impact on the local economy and medical supply.
It is assumed that the government policy is triggered and rely on reported COVID-19 cases when the confirmed cases are 10 or less.
Interesting insightsThe infection rate will decline if the government increase the testing ranges, meanwhile, the more confirmed cases will increase the pressure on hospital capacity and generate more demand for medical resources, which will promote government policy intervention to narrow the demand gap and affect economic performance by increasing hospital construction with financial investment.