Just Justice tackling Aboriginal Over-Incarceration
Overcoming Indigenous Disadvantage
COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania - Lin Ling 523592
The COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania shows the process of COVID-19 outbreak, the impacts of government policy on both the COVID-19 outbreak and the GDP growth in Burnie.
We set some variables at fix rates, including the immunity loss rate, recovery rate, death rate, infection rate and case impact rate, as they usually depend on the individual health conditions and social activities.
It should be noticed that we set the rate of recovery, which is 0.7, is higher than that of immunity loss rate, which is 0.5, so, the number of susceptible could be reduced over time.
Adjustments: (please compare the numbers at week 52)
Step 1: Set all the variables at minimum values and simulate
results: Number of Infected – 135; Recovered – 218; Cases – 597; Death – 18,175; GDP – 10,879.
Step 2: Increase the variables of Health Policy, Quarantine, and Travel Restriction to 0.03, others keep the same as step 1, and simulate
results: Number of Infected – 166 (up); Recovered – 249 (up); Cases – 554 (down); Death – 18,077 (down); GDP – 824 (down).
So, the increase of health policy, quarantine and travel restriction will help increase recovery, decrease confirmed cases, decrease death, but also decrease GDP.
Step 3: Increase the variables of Testing Rate to 0.4, others keep the same as step 2, and simulate
results: Number of Infected – 152 (down); Recovered – 243 (down); Cases – 1022 (up); Death – 17,625 (down); GDP – 824 (same).
So, the increase of testing rate will help to increase the confirmed cases.
Step 4: Change GDP Growth Rate to 0.14, Tourism Growth Rate to 0.02, others keep the same as step 3, and simulate
results: Number of Infected – 152 (same); Recovered – 243 (same); Cases – 1022 (same); Death – 17,625 (same); GDP – 6,632 (up).
So, the increase of GDP growth rate and tourism growth rate will helps to improve the GDP in Burnie.
Qld SEE Model
Stock - Store - Funds representation
BMA708_Marketing insights_Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania_Jing XU
Assumptions can be made that effective government intervention can reduce the number of people infected, whereas the local economy is severely impacted.
1. When COVID-19 case are more than 10, government policy will be triggered.
2. Testing rate is very crucial to understanding the spread of the pandemic and responding appropriately.