John Kingdon's Theory of Streams in the politics of the policy process. From the  book  Kingdon, John (1999)  Agendas Alternatives and Public Policies . Longman New York. Click on View Story at the bottom left.

John Kingdon's Theory of Streams in the politics of the policy process. From the book Kingdon, John (1999) Agendas Alternatives and Public Policies. Longman New York. Click on View Story at the bottom left.

 From Fig.1 Communication for Social Change: An Integrated Model for Measuring the Process and Its Outcomes/Maria Elena Figueroa et al (2002)  paper  

From Fig.1 Communication for Social Change: An Integrated Model for Measuring the Process and Its Outcomes/Maria Elena Figueroa et al (2002) paper 

This is a first attempt at identifying the actors that may need to be involved in the development of the model - at one stage or other.
This is a first attempt at identifying the actors that may need to be involved in the development of the model - at one stage or other.
A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models. See also  Complex Decision Technologies IM  Interventions and leverage points added in  IM-1400  (complex!)
A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models. See also Complex Decision Technologies IM
Interventions and leverage points added in IM-1400 (complex!)
 Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus 

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus 

368 6 months ago
Based on Psychological Medicine Dec 2015  article   Depression as a systemic syndrome: mapping the feedback loops of major depressive disorder  by A. K. Wittenborn, H. Rahmandad, J. Rick and N. Hosseinichimeh, mentioned  here . See also 2018 N. Hosseinichimeh Plos ONE  article  for rumination focuss
Based on Psychological Medicine Dec 2015 article Depression as a systemic syndrome: mapping the feedback loops of major depressive disorder by A. K. Wittenborn, H. Rahmandad, J. Rick and N. Hosseinichimeh, mentioned here. See also 2018 N. Hosseinichimeh Plos ONE article for rumination focussed SD simulation
11 9 months ago
 Decision making accuracy depends on ecological validity of indicator uses and subjective use of cues (fallible tangible indicators) Extended to clinical risk and action in  IM-62657  See medical decision making 2016 article  abstract

Decision making accuracy depends on ecological validity of indicator uses and subjective use of cues (fallible tangible indicators) Extended to clinical risk and action in IM-62657 See medical decision making 2016 article abstract

Clusters of interacting methods for improving health services network design and delivery. Includes Forrester quotes on statistical vs SD methods and the Modeller's dilemma. Simplified version of  IM-14982  combined with  IM-17598  and  IM-9773
Clusters of interacting methods for improving health services network design and delivery. Includes Forrester quotes on statistical vs SD methods and the Modeller's dilemma. Simplified version of IM-14982 combined with IM-17598 and IM-9773
20 2 months ago
 Minimal model of glucose kinetics by Bergman, used to calculate insulin sensitivity from an Intravenous Glucose Tolerance Test (IVGTT). Plasma insulin I(t) enters a remote compartment X(t) where it is active in accelerating glucose G(t) disappearance into the periphery and liver, and inhibiting hep

Minimal model of glucose kinetics by Bergman, used to calculate insulin sensitivity from an Intravenous Glucose Tolerance Test (IVGTT). Plasma insulin I(t) enters a remote compartment X(t) where it is active in accelerating glucose G(t) disappearance into the periphery and liver, and inhibiting hepatic glucose production. Adapted from Minimal Models for Glucose and Insulin Kinetics: A Matlab implementation by Natal van Riel, Eindhoven University of Technology 2004 by Mark Heffernan.

Simplest ED Model for Daily ED Performance with 1 ED area rather than 2 in  IM-10571 . Currently runs over a weekend and calibrated roughly to Weekend Data.Ward net discharges are extended in  IM-12414 . This insight IM-11936 is the Master Version with the story added. The previous running model, no
Simplest ED Model for Daily ED Performance with 1 ED area rather than 2 in IM-10571. Currently runs over a weekend and calibrated roughly to Weekend Data.Ward net discharges are extended in IM-12414. This insight IM-11936 is the Master Version with the story added. The previous running model, now without a story, is at IM-11079
 Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.  We add simple containment meassures that affect two paramenters, the Susceptible population and the rate to become infected.  The initial parametrization is based on the su

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

We add simple containment meassures that affect two paramenters, the Susceptible population and the rate to become infected.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

The questions that we want to answer in this kind of models are not the shape of the curves, that are almost known from the beginning, but, when this happens, and the amplitude of the shapes. This is crucial, since in the current circumstance implies the collapse of certain resources, not only healthcare.

The validation process hence becomes critical, and allows to estimate the different parameters of the model from the data we obtain. This simulation approach allows to obtain somethings that is crucial to make decisions, the causality. We can infer this from the assumptions that are implicit on the model, and from it we can make decisions to improve the system behavior.

Yes, simulation works with causality and Flows diagrams is one of the techniques we have to draw it graphically, but is not the only one. On https://sdlps.com/projects/documentation/1009 you can review soon the same model but represented in Specification and Description Language.

143 2 weeks ago
 Rich picture version of Causal loop diagram based on Jack  Homer's paper Worker burnout: a dynamic model with implications  for prevention and control System Dynamics Review 1985 1(1)42-62 See  IM-333  for the Simulation model and  IM-2178  for a related Causal Loop Diagram of Project Turnover 
  

Rich picture version of Causal loop diagram based on Jack  Homer's paper Worker burnout: a dynamic model with implications  for prevention and control System Dynamics Review 1985 1(1)42-62 See IM-333 for the Simulation model and IM-2178 for a related Causal Loop Diagram of Project Turnover

 

From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for
Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research
Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand


This is a high level system dynamics model which is built to
determine the dynamic relationships of the FSA and Followups capacity.
Therefore, it can help clinicians to find out the optimistic method in order to
reduce the waiting list. At past clinicians were seeing more FSA patients,
however, af
This is a high level system dynamics model which is built to determine the dynamic relationships of the FSA and Followups capacity. Therefore, it can help clinicians to find out the optimistic method in order to reduce the waiting list. At past clinicians were seeing more FSA patients, however, after few months, the followups patients overwhelmed the clinics. Therefore waiting list has been built up again. By running this model, clinicians can find out the balanced leverage point(s). New Model has been developed, this is a very draft model.
 Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.  The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

301 3 weeks ago
 From Stephen Toulmin's Book The Uses of Argument Cambridge University Press 2003. See  wikipedia  

From Stephen Toulmin's Book The Uses of Argument Cambridge University Press 2003. See wikipedia 

4 months ago
Based on Nate Osgood's April 2014 Singapore Presentation  Youtube video  and Lyle Wallis material Gojii at  DecisioTech  See also  Complex Decison Technologies IM  as a more polished version
Based on Nate Osgood's April 2014 Singapore Presentation Youtube video and Lyle Wallis material Gojii at DecisioTech See also Complex Decison Technologies IM as a more polished version
 This common archetype of systems that include relapse or recidivism allows exploration of the unintended effects of increasing upstream capacity and swamping downstream capacity. The increase in the relapse rate eventually returns to swamp upstream capacity as well. A social welfare example, based

This common archetype of systems that include relapse or recidivism allows exploration of the unintended effects of increasing upstream capacity and swamping downstream capacity. The increase in the relapse rate eventually returns to swamp upstream capacity as well. A social welfare example, based on a TANF case study, from How Small System Dynamics Models Can Help the Policy Process. N. Ghaffarzadegan, J. Lyneis, GP Richardson. System Dynamics Review 27,1 (2011) 22-44 abstract Conference version here

 An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) Conference version at  http://bit.ly/HlxtZj   and LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction to

An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) Conference version at http://bit.ly/HlxtZj  and LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction to Urban Dynamics 1974 p 195.

An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/

 Rich picture CLD of Tradeoffs in Responses to Work Pressure in the Service Industry by Rogelio Oliva California Mgt Review 2001 43(4) 26-43  paper

Rich picture CLD of Tradeoffs in Responses to Work Pressure in the Service Industry by Rogelio Oliva California Mgt Review 2001 43(4) 26-43 paper


Based on Chris Argyris 2010  Book Organizational Traps  Oxford University Press, built around  Insight 619  on single and double loop learning
Based on Chris Argyris 2010 Book Organizational Traps Oxford University Press, built around Insight 619 on single and double loop learning
3 12 months ago
 Jack Homer's model via ithink and Mark Heffernan.  From Jack's  paper Worker burnout: a dynamic model with implications  for prevention and control System Dynamics Review 1985 1(1)42-62. See  IM-641  for the Causal loop diagram

Jack Homer's model via ithink and Mark Heffernan.  From Jack's  paper Worker burnout: a dynamic model with implications  for prevention and control System Dynamics Review 1985 1(1)42-62. See IM-641 for the Causal loop diagram