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2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Guy Lakeman

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals

  • 3 years 6 months ago

Bow wave effect

Geoff McDonnell

When deferred requirements pile up and underestimated complexity surround a project, managers end up riding a bow wave of schedule and delivery complications.  From William E. Novak and  Linda Levine CMU SEI Sept 2010 Success in Acquisition: Using Archetypes to Beat the Odds paper and see webpage

Archetype Technology

  • 4 years 6 months ago

2017 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Guy Lakeman

THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals Flood Drought Loss Hurricane Typhoon Tornado Cyclone Agriculture Food Energy Nuclear Solar Resource Graphene Silicene Transport

  • 1 year 7 months ago

To Be Business and Technology Architecture

Lisa Martinez
​Purpose
Enables the different components in the 5 capability model in a visual manner for Enterprise and Business Architecture stakeholders.  


BUSINESS ARCHITECTURE 

5 Capability Model
The 5 capability model has many stock and flow children which each organization will need to model based on their current state.  

  • Aligns to APQC Process Framework
  • Aligns to Principles in ISO 9001, 26000 and 27001 

ENTERPRISE ARCHITECTURE 
Aligns Zachman Framework Enterprise and Business Architecture with Executive and Leaders from a business management level across any organization.  

A method in which to align and benchmark any organization or agency, with the system(s) logic required from Architects in Row 3, to enable Row 4 engineers who need to supply physics. 


Semantic
Getting terms to align to the generic objects can be a trying task, unless you simply list the stakeholders "semantic" term below the stakeholder in the presentation layer by order shown in the business process management section above the capability management group.  



Business Technology Quality 5 Capability Model Application As Is To Be Enterprise And Business Architecture

  • 4 years 5 months ago

Performance shaping factors

Geoff McDonnell

Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment(PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: A hybrid technique formalization Zahra Mohaghegh, Reza Kazemi, Ali Mosleh Reliability Engineering and System Safety (2009) 94 5 p1000–1018 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183200800269X. More detailed part of Insight 1074

Health Care Behavior Risk Work Systems Technology Human Action Performance Capability Ability

  • 3 years 3 months ago

Socio Technical Risk Assessment

Geoff McDonnell

Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment(PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: A hybrid technique formalization Zahra Mohaghegh, Reza Kazemi, Ali Mosleh Reliability Engineering and System Safety (2009) 94 5 p1000–1018 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183200800269X. THis overview has a more detailed area in Insight 1077

Health Care Risk Systems Methods Technology Performance Capability

  • 3 years 3 months ago

OSCON 2017: Help Desk - True Cost Impact of Improper Escalation

Kishau Rogers
​The Problem: What is the true cost of escalating too many Tier 1/Level 1 tickets to Level 2/3 engineers?
Things to measure: How does this impact:1. (MONEY) Cost per incident - what does this cost the business? 2. (TIME) Service Level - how does this impact desired service levels/SLAs? 3. (PEOPLE) Agent utilization - how does this impact backlog? are we overworking engineers? Does this contribute to staff burnout?

Business Help Desk Technology

  • 2 years 1 month ago

2018 OVERPOPULATION LEADS TO POLLUTION based on Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Guy Lakeman

THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals Flood Drought Loss Hurricane Typhoon Tornado Cyclone Agriculture Food Energy Nuclear Solar Resource Graphene Silicene Transport

  • 1 year 3 weeks ago

Why using headphones is better than using a speaker?

Hamza

Nowadays, there are different type of headphones and speakers in the market. Because we have so many choices, we often get confused which one to buy. Basically, to understand which one is better for us we must have a good knowledge about the difference between these two tech products.

So, I will be explaining a little about these products before telling you exactly which one you need to buy and why you need to buy that product.

Headphones

Headphones can be defined as a pair of earphones joined by a band placed over the head, for listening to audio signals such as music or speech.

Well, headphones are basically speakers that are small and can be used anywhere. You can use it when you are traveling or in public and no one other then you will listen the voice due to its small speakers. Now that does not mean we cannot use it other than traveling purposes. Headphones can be used anywhere anytime according to our need but only 1 person can listen voice of headphone at a time. Headphones can help to listen and create podcast on mobile.

There are different type of headphones available in market.

  • Circumaural Headphones
  • Supra-aural headphones
  • Earbuds
  • Canal phones
  • Bluetooth headsets

Headphones are budget friendly and easy to manage. Mostly Apple AirPods and Apple AirPods Alternatives have better sound quality and have Bluetooth in it.

Speaker

Speakers can be defined as output device that is used for listening audio such as music or speech. Speakers are basically large, and we cannot take it everywhere we go. It has more voice than headphones and many peoples can listen to audio at the same time. Speakers are mostly used in public places for conveying message to larger audience or in homes for watching movies and listening to music.

There are different types of speakers.

  • In wall/ceiling speakers
  • Subwoofers
  • Soundbars
  • Loudspeakers
  • Outdoor speakers

Which one is better?

As I have already explained that speakers are used for more peoples listening audio at a time and headphones are used for a single person listening to the audio.

Basically, headphones are better in sound quality and you can listen to music without any noise in public places such as bus stands, offices, trains etc. No one other than you will be able to listen to the audio. It can be used for listening to phone calls, music or watching movies in home and public places. Headphones are also very budget friendly. You can easily buy one in $2-5 and enjoy music. Now that does not mean that speakers are of no use. If you want to listen to audio with your friends and family, you can use speakers. Even headphones are budget friendly but only you can listen to its sound and it’s a drawback of it.

Conclusion

Everything has its own use. Speakers are better if more sound is required and headphones can be used if only person want to listen that sound. Think wisely before buying speaker or headphones if you want better sound quality or a music lover than headphones will be the right choice for you.

Technology

  • 3 months 3 weeks ago

Offer Management Capability Generic Model

Lisa Martinez
Purpose 1 New Small Business - Cloud Support Model
Purpose-To enable a visual model to acquire new business owners to adopt cloud services.   

Purpose 2 Cloud Service Provider Delivery Model-Service 

2. ​The purpose of this model intends to allow a cloud service provider a way to design offers for generic use across any industry.  

Outcome - Key Control for Segregation of Duties GAAP/GARP
3. The purpose of this model incorporates the variables of different components for completeness and monitoring scope for any master data update or create activity.  

Outcome - Key Controls for SOX 404 Assurances
Monitoring all activities for segregation of duties controls - in a control chart.  The model ensures a completeness criteria for cost structuring of any new offer or acquisition integration.  

GAAP-Non-GAAP Revenue
The primary inputs shown on this diagram trigger the leverage points for many of the dependent processes and management of an offers revenue treatment.  

Completeness - Supplies the various parts of the whole 
Organization or Agency models - simulations 
Stock and Flow models enable simulation of the proposed design with a better view into results of any proposed changes.   

Enterprise Architecture Value 

Predict changes and prepare for complexity based on the risk using the components simulated in stock and flow diagrams.  

Model and simulate the "as is" and "to be" or monitor as the way to ensure your architecture stability and when investments need to be made in a next generation strategy.  

Business Architecture Value
Use the whole and parts (stock and flow child) to better understand the "current state" measuring the transition to the desired state on the journey to a performance model.   

The model applies the rows from Enterprise Architecture as prescribed by Zachman Ontology v3.  Based on the way business requirements need to be applied to technology solutions.  


Row 1 - Executive - Context of the organization

Row 2 - Business Managers - Business Process connectivity

Row 3 - Architects - Systems - The transition from Business to Enterprise Architects.

Ideally-the offer management capability serves as one of 5 capabilities which must be in place to meet both financial and quality certification criteria for the majority of companies.  

Highway Analogy
A 5 capability model enables the audit relationships between different master record management audit log tracking for SOX to be used by quality management to align with corporate policies which intend to guide decision making within any size and any type organization or agency.  

Applied 
The system model would be copied by an organizations resource and inputs applied to a stock and flow diagram as prescribed in associated models.  Herein we must assume the whole and each of the stock and flow simulation models the component parts.  







Technology Software Generic Offer Items Hardware Service Products Bundles Promotion

  • 6 years 1 month ago

Reasons why you should ditch your car and use an electric skateboard

Ben Smith

Just as the Weezer said it all the way back in 1994 that ‘’You take your car to work, I’ll take my board’’

Well we all can agree that they new how much damaging the cars are both to our environment and most importantly to our pockets. So, it’s time to ditch your normal and boring cars and time to hop on a board. There are many benefits of riding an electric skateboard both health and financial, so in this insight we are going to focus on that.

But there’s a catch with the traditional skateboards as they are quite slow and requires a lot of effort. So it’s better to go for the electric skateboards as tey are much more practical and easy to use in day to day life.

So, without any due let’s begin

Benifits

Lets checkout some of the benefits that you will get by ditching your car.

1.       Time and Traffic: According to a study by US Department of Transportation an average American spends an average 17,600 min driving each year which includes commuting to and from work.

2.       Cost: Commuting is both time consuming and expensive. However according to AAA you can save upto $11,931 a year by ditching your car. Also according to the balance if an average American spend 26 mins on average a day to work it will cost $2600 a year. So, you would save almost $2600 on gasoline alone.

3.       Speed: While many Americans opt for public transportation like buses and trains but they are not fast as you imagine in fact a study according to the American Public Transportation Association showed that the average speed of rail transit is 21.5 mph and the average speed of bus transit is only 14.1 mph.

4.       Electric Skateboards: If you go for the electric skateboards than you can expect them to be a lot more fun than your boring public transport of your car as they are quite fast. According to Wheels Compared an average electric skateboard can reach top speed of 18 to 28 mph.

5.       Mental Wellness: According to a study back in 2014, researchers reveled that when compared to those who drove a car, people who commuted by active transport (like biking and skateboarding) exhibited greater mental wellness.

6.       Hills: These electric skateboards are Insane when it comes to power as on a full charge you can enjoy a range of 12-18 miles of endless ride time. You can even go uphill on a 20% gradient with ease.

7.       Everyone Is Doing It: According to a study conducted by Parks and Recreation there are almost 16 million skateboarders in the USA and the trends are just growing and growing with the new electric skateboards on the shelves.

8.       Cheap: Electric Skateboards are cheap. So, just you know you can get one for around $500 or less if you are on a budget but also you’ve got some expensvie ones that are beast and have a greater top speed and range. But these expensive one gonna cost a lot more anywhere from $1000 to $2000+.

So that’s it all you need to know about if you are thinking to switch over to a traditional or an electric skateboard. All I could say is don’t waste your whole day spending hours and hors stuck in traffic and waiting on signals as you can get by traffic easily and efficiently on a skateboard. So what are you waiting for hop on a board and enjoy the ride.

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Technology

  • 3 months 1 week ago

Benefits Associated With A 360 Degree Feedback Mechanism

Levi Smith
Impact of a 360 degree feedback is seen across teams, leaders and even stretch to an entire organization. The moment when an organization launches a 360 degree feedback module employees are reluctant to participate. Superior leaders may show a bias towards action and if you want to create positive results, then 360 degree feedback software is a right approach.

360 degree feedback provides insight to a management on what is working and which areas are a concern. With data obtained from the feedback you can take corrective action on an immediate basis in helping employees improving and contributing to betterment of their organization.

Till date when an organization decides to go ahead with a 360 degree feedback module, a cold response is evoked.  Typical response like “I have heard it all” Can Me asks others to be part of this survey or I do not want to know anything about it.

You cannot classify them as bad responses, but it is not good as well. The future is feedback on all counts. Gone are the days where you could rely on instinctive feedback though honest feedback about an individual is a difficult task. As leaders climb up the organizational ladder their leadership style along with performance dips down. People are displeased with those leadership positions and a less frank feedback is obtained on face to face sessions.

Benefits expected from 360 degree feedback

If analyzed clearly there are 8 major benefits of 360 degree feedback module-

Increase in self-awareness

Self-awareness means taking stock of your own personality levels. Figure out your strengths and weakness, emotions, beliefs or thoughts. When it comes to leadership self-awareness is important. Leadership means balancing your priorities. Even good leaders having leadership skills end up making mistakes as they adopted a wrong approach.

Each one perceives a good handle on how people see them. But people are surprised when they score low in comparison to their supervisor and direct reports score above them.  Rather than thinking better about yourself people should think great about you?  This will provide more confidence in your behavior

Classification of behaviors

If asked what all behaviors a good leader should possess, your mind would be puzzled. Merely asking about them highlights importance of it in an organization. Additionally it shows up whether you are highlighting more or a superfluous behavior and neglecting a weak behavior.

Figuring out how things are done as supposed on what is to be done

What would be better, pursuing a correct way even if failure occurs or adopting an all-out approach at any cost? Outcome vs. process becomes a question here as it is process as always. No guarantee is assured and by concentrating on the process you enhance probability of a better outcome. An added perk of reliability and predictability is assured.

Encourages dialogue

On the route from measurement to improvement dialogue is of vital importance. Process feedback or clarified behavior encourages a route to positive dialogue. A warm discussion between survey leader and survey administer gets the ball rolling. Part of the process of dialogue would include plans and goals being agreed upon. If needed it may include peers and employees.

If you walk up to an employee and ask how is my style of leadership? The most likely response is “It is good”. People are likely to respond better to dialogues or behaviors which encourage a positive dialogue on whatever subject you are likely to dig deep into.

Work relationship improves

A vital trait of any relationship is reciprocity, a mutual exchange program. A performance program feedback is seen to be a one sided affair as a supervisor or a direct report relationship. Things could be completely missing as peers feel that they do not like to say anything. If you incorporate this element on to a relationship, another point of reciprocal support has been developed.

Fosters personal development

Leaders are likely to have reached a position by behaving in a random manner. They are bound to process an element of ambition of drive which made them reach this position. A level of self-awareness is achieved where they are able to figure out their strengths along with weakness with honest leadership behavior. Honest feedback is necessary to analyze your own perceptions, figure out strengths and uncover blind spots. With digestible and easy areas to examine leaders are going to naturally grasp them leading to improvement.

Personal development is all about contributors become effective managers or how executives do go on to don the hat of a board member. An organization that provides for more personal development is likely to retain their employees, rather than seeking such opportunities outside an organizational set up. With a 360 degree feedback program natural areas of personal development are tapped.

Increases accountability

An enemy of accountability is ambiguity. Vaguer something appears, less chance of someone holding on to it. Co-workers end up taking behind each other and a natural reaction would be” I am going to take care of things when it arrives” It is not possible to guide someone in becoming a better leader or incorporate values of an organization. This is what a 360 degree feedback takes into consideration pass a legitimate remark on whether an employee demonstrated a particular behavior or not. This means that you can hold someone accountable for their behaviors. Though the best part is that if you have clearly outlined these behaviors, an individual will be able to hold on to it.

Betters performance

On the basis of all the above points the main point of consideration in relation to a 360 degree feedback is improves performance. Clarity is provided on how to work towards a better performance. It is not a magic wand and many organizations may end up implementing it in a wrong way. This might even force performance to dip than the earlier levels.

In a nutshell, no leader would have scaled new heights in an organization without display of leadership skills. They have a basic idea about their leadership style along with the expected strengths and weakness.

Technology

  • 3 months 2 weeks ago

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