2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED
Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals
Complex Decision Technologies
Using Systems thinking for technology in education
Levin, B. B., & Schrum, L. (2013). Using systems thinking to leverage technology for school improvement: Lessons learned from award-winning secondary Schools/Districts. Journal of Research on Technology in Education, 46(1), 29-51.
Bow wave effect
When deferred requirements pile up and underestimated complexity surround a project, managers end up riding a bow wave of schedule and delivery complications. From William E. Novak and Linda Levine CMU SEI Sept 2010 Success in Acquisition: Using Archetypes to Beat the Odds paper and see webpage
To Be Business and Technology Architecture
Enables the different components in the 5 capability model in a visual manner for Enterprise and Business Architecture stakeholders.
5 Capability Model
The 5 capability model has many stock and flow children which each organization will need to model based on their current state.
- Aligns to APQC Process Framework
- Aligns to Principles in ISO 9001, 26000 and 27001
Aligns Zachman Framework Enterprise and Business Architecture with Executive and Leaders from a business management level across any organization.
A method in which to align and benchmark any organization or agency, with the system(s) logic required from Architects in Row 3, to enable Row 4 engineers who need to supply physics.
Getting terms to align to the generic objects can be a trying task, unless you simply list the stakeholders "semantic" term below the stakeholder in the presentation layer by order shown in the business process management section above the capability management group.
Performance shaping factors
Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment(PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: A hybrid technique formalization Zahra Mohaghegh, Reza Kazemi, Ali Mosleh Reliability Engineering and System Safety (2009) 94 5 p1000–1018 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183200800269X. More detailed part of Insight 1074
The dynamics of R&D
Socio Technical Risk Assessment
Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment(PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: A hybrid technique formalization Zahra Mohaghegh, Reza Kazemi, Ali Mosleh Reliability Engineering and System Safety (2009) 94 5 p1000–1018 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183200800269X. THis overview has a more detailed area in Insight 1077
eHealth Systems Approach
Software Acquisition Archetypes
Project Burnout and Turnover
Applying more pressure on staff can temporarily increase productivity, but burnout soon sets in. From William E. Novak and Linda Levine CMU SEI Sept 2010 Success in Acquisition: Using Archetypes to Beat the Odds paper and see webpage
OSCON 2017: Help Desk - True Cost Impact of Improper Escalation
Things to measure: How does this impact:1. (MONEY) Cost per incident - what does this cost the business? 2. (TIME) Service Level - how does this impact desired service levels/SLAs? 3. (PEOPLE) Agent utilization - how does this impact backlog? are we overworking engineers? Does this contribute to staff burnout?
Diffusion of Innovation Bass Model
The Underbidding Effect
The concept of bidding on a government contract is deceptively simple. Underbidding is a tactic that complicates all aspects of the process. From William E. Novak and Linda Levine CMU SEI Sept 2010 Success in Acquisition: Using Archetypes to Beat the Odds paper and see webpage
What happens when a program chooses to ignore Brooks' Law? This archetype explains the dynamics behind Brooks' Law and why it applies to most programs. From William E. Novak and Linda Levine CMU SEI Sept 2010 Success in Acquisition: Using Archetypes to Beat the Odds paper and see webpage
Gartner Hype Cycle
Medication Management CLD
Clone 26/07/16 of Plastic Pollution Solution Revolution
Technology and Healthcare Costs and Outcomes 3
A simplified dynamic model, adapted from Engineering perspectives on healthcare delivery: Can we afford technological innovation in healthcare? Rouse, William B Systems Research and Behavioral Science 2009 Vol 26 (5) p573-582 abstract Developed by Mark Heffernan. Addition of learning curve effects to Insight 435
Offer Management Capability Generic Model
Purpose-To enable a visual model to acquire new business owners to adopt cloud services.
Purpose 2 Cloud Service Provider Delivery Model-Service
2. The purpose of this model intends to allow a cloud service provider a way to design offers for generic use across any industry.
Outcome - Key Control for Segregation of Duties GAAP/GARP
3. The purpose of this model incorporates the variables of different components for completeness and monitoring scope for any master data update or create activity.
Outcome - Key Controls for SOX 404 Assurances
Monitoring all activities for segregation of duties controls - in a control chart. The model ensures a completeness criteria for cost structuring of any new offer or acquisition integration.
The primary inputs shown on this diagram trigger the leverage points for many of the dependent processes and management of an offers revenue treatment.
Completeness - Supplies the various parts of the whole
Organization or Agency models - simulations
Stock and Flow models enable simulation of the proposed design with a better view into results of any proposed changes.
Enterprise Architecture Value
Predict changes and prepare for complexity based on the risk using the components simulated in stock and flow diagrams.
Model and simulate the "as is" and "to be" or monitor as the way to ensure your architecture stability and when investments need to be made in a next generation strategy.
Business Architecture Value
Use the whole and parts (stock and flow child) to better understand the "current state" measuring the transition to the desired state on the journey to a performance model.
The model applies the rows from Enterprise Architecture as prescribed by Zachman Ontology v3. Based on the way business requirements need to be applied to technology solutions.
Row 1 - Executive - Context of the organization
Row 2 - Business Managers - Business Process connectivity
Row 3 - Architects - Systems - The transition from Business to Enterprise Architects.
Ideally-the offer management capability serves as one of 5 capabilities which must be in place to meet both financial and quality certification criteria for the majority of companies.
A 5 capability model enables the audit relationships between different master record management audit log tracking for SOX to be used by quality management to align with corporate policies which intend to guide decision making within any size and any type organization or agency.
The system model would be copied by an organizations resource and inputs applied to a stock and flow diagram as prescribed in associated models. Herein we must assume the whole and each of the stock and flow simulation models the component parts.
Technology Ecosystem Model
Happy Path Testing Pattern
When time and budget are tight, it's tempting to follow the "happy path" in testing. But be careful: it may be a path that brings your program great unhappiness. From William E. Novak and Linda Levine CMU SEI Sept 2010 Success in Acquisition: Using Archetypes to Beat the Odds paper and see webpage
Shooting the Messenger
When problems are detected in programs, it's time for everyone to listen and work toward a solution. Shooting the messenger only delays the process, and hurts program morale. From William E. Novak and Linda Levine CMU SEI Sept 2010 Success in Acquisition: Using Archetypes to Beat the Odds paper and see webpage