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2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Guy Lakeman

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals

  • 1 year 12 months ago

Bow wave effect

Geoff McDonnell

When deferred requirements pile up and underestimated complexity surround a project, managers end up riding a bow wave of schedule and delivery complications.  From William E. Novak and  Linda Levine CMU SEI Sept 2010 Success in Acquisition: Using Archetypes to Beat the Odds paper and see webpage

Archetype Technology

  • 3 years 2 weeks ago

To Be Business and Technology Architecture

Lisa Martinez
​Purpose
Enables the different components in the 5 capability model in a visual manner for Enterprise and Business Architecture stakeholders.  


BUSINESS ARCHITECTURE 

5 Capability Model
The 5 capability model has many stock and flow children which each organization will need to model based on their current state.  

  • Aligns to APQC Process Framework
  • Aligns to Principles in ISO 9001, 26000 and 27001 

ENTERPRISE ARCHITECTURE 
Aligns Zachman Framework Enterprise and Business Architecture with Executive and Leaders from a business management level across any organization.  

A method in which to align and benchmark any organization or agency, with the system(s) logic required from Architects in Row 3, to enable Row 4 engineers who need to supply physics. 


Semantic
Getting terms to align to the generic objects can be a trying task, unless you simply list the stakeholders "semantic" term below the stakeholder in the presentation layer by order shown in the business process management section above the capability management group.  



Business Technology Quality 5 Capability Model Application As Is To Be Enterprise And Business Architecture

  • 2 years 11 months ago

Performance shaping factors

Geoff McDonnell

Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment(PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: A hybrid technique formalization Zahra Mohaghegh, Reza Kazemi, Ali Mosleh Reliability Engineering and System Safety (2009) 94 5 p1000–1018 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183200800269X. More detailed part of Insight 1074

Health Care Behavior Risk Work Systems Technology Human Action Performance Capability Ability

  • 1 year 9 months ago

2017 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Guy Lakeman

THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals Flood Drought Loss Hurricane Typhoon Tornado Cyclone Agriculture Food Energy Nuclear Solar Resource Graphene Silicene Transport

  • 3 weeks 4 days ago

Socio Technical Risk Assessment

Geoff McDonnell

Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment(PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: A hybrid technique formalization Zahra Mohaghegh, Reza Kazemi, Ali Mosleh Reliability Engineering and System Safety (2009) 94 5 p1000–1018 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183200800269X. THis overview has a more detailed area in Insight 1077

Health Care Risk Systems Methods Technology Performance Capability

  • 1 year 9 months ago

OSCON 2017: Help Desk - True Cost Impact of Improper Escalation

Kishau Rogers
​The Problem: What is the true cost of escalating too many Tier 1/Level 1 tickets to Level 2/3 engineers?
Things to measure: How does this impact:1. (MONEY) Cost per incident - what does this cost the business? 2. (TIME) Service Level - how does this impact desired service levels/SLAs? 3. (PEOPLE) Agent utilization - how does this impact backlog? are we overworking engineers? Does this contribute to staff burnout?

Business Help Desk Technology

  • 7 months 3 days ago

Offer Management Capability Generic Model

Lisa Martinez
Purpose 1 New Small Business - Cloud Support Model
Purpose-To enable a visual model to acquire new business owners to adopt cloud services.   

Purpose 2 Cloud Service Provider Delivery Model-Service 

2. ​The purpose of this model intends to allow a cloud service provider a way to design offers for generic use across any industry.  

Outcome - Key Control for Segregation of Duties GAAP/GARP
3. The purpose of this model incorporates the variables of different components for completeness and monitoring scope for any master data update or create activity.  

Outcome - Key Controls for SOX 404 Assurances
Monitoring all activities for segregation of duties controls - in a control chart.  The model ensures a completeness criteria for cost structuring of any new offer or acquisition integration.  

GAAP-Non-GAAP Revenue
The primary inputs shown on this diagram trigger the leverage points for many of the dependent processes and management of an offers revenue treatment.  

Completeness - Supplies the various parts of the whole 
Organization or Agency models - simulations 
Stock and Flow models enable simulation of the proposed design with a better view into results of any proposed changes.   

Enterprise Architecture Value 

Predict changes and prepare for complexity based on the risk using the components simulated in stock and flow diagrams.  

Model and simulate the "as is" and "to be" or monitor as the way to ensure your architecture stability and when investments need to be made in a next generation strategy.  

Business Architecture Value
Use the whole and parts (stock and flow child) to better understand the "current state" measuring the transition to the desired state on the journey to a performance model.   

The model applies the rows from Enterprise Architecture as prescribed by Zachman Ontology v3.  Based on the way business requirements need to be applied to technology solutions.  


Row 1 - Executive - Context of the organization

Row 2 - Business Managers - Business Process connectivity

Row 3 - Architects - Systems - The transition from Business to Enterprise Architects.

Ideally-the offer management capability serves as one of 5 capabilities which must be in place to meet both financial and quality certification criteria for the majority of companies.  

Highway Analogy
A 5 capability model enables the audit relationships between different master record management audit log tracking for SOX to be used by quality management to align with corporate policies which intend to guide decision making within any size and any type organization or agency.  

Applied 
The system model would be copied by an organizations resource and inputs applied to a stock and flow diagram as prescribed in associated models.  Herein we must assume the whole and each of the stock and flow simulation models the component parts.  







Technology Software Generic Offer Items Hardware Service Products Bundles Promotion

  • 4 years 7 months ago

Shooting the Messenger

Geoff McDonnell

When problems are detected in programs, it's time for everyone to listen and work toward a solution. Shooting the messenger only delays the process, and hurts program morale. From William E. Novak and  Linda Levine CMU SEI Sept 2010 Success in Acquisition: Using Archetypes to Beat the Odds paper and see webpage



Archetype Technology EHealth

  • 3 years 9 months ago

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