These models and simulations have been tagged “Derby”.
This model displays the
conflict between the tourism and timber industry in Derby, Tasmania. It becomes
a problem for the government officials when choosing the future policy direction.
Our aim is to construct a model for simulation and find a equilibrium point to
maximize the state benefit.
How Does the Model
The key factor of the model is the value
of the policy variable. It can take values between -1 and +1. The more it is close
to +1 means that the policy government takes is more tourism-friendly. The more
it is close to -1 means that the policy government takes is more timber-friendly.
the policy variable, there are three sections for the model.
We assume that there exist a population
which contains the whole potential customers. The potential customers will make
bike trips to Derby at a relatively stable rate. The input policy value will
affect the satisfaction rate for the tourists. Some of them will provide
positive feedbacks and become our potential customers again. On the other hand,
those had bad experience will no longer make trips to Derby. All the tourists
make consumption every month and part of the expense will become the tourism revenue.
The average expense variable is also provided in this section.
Section 2: The timber
The input policy variable will also affect
the employment in the timber industry. It will partially determine the industry
growth rate. Like the tourism, the sales/industry scale will generate monthly revenue
for the industry at a given rate.
Section 3: The state
The revenue from the two industries will
be added up. Our aim is to adjust the policy value to maximize the state benefit.
Excessive logging may lead to environmental
problems and it isn’t the best option for the whole state benefit. Based on the
pre-set parameters and the model, we can see that the revenue contribution from
the tourism is also considerable. According to our results, the policy value
should be around 0.31, which represents the tourism-friendly policy.
This model demonstrates the intertwining relationship
between the economic contribution of industrial logging and that of adventure
tourism (dominated by mountain biking).
In terms of the revenue from industrial logging at Derby, it
is driven by demand of timber and the timber price. However, the forest
resources are limited, which will put constraints on the expansion of industrial
logging due to regrowth rate and existing forestation.
The tourism can bring economic benefits to Derby from hospitality
and selling tickets to local adventure activities. The hospitality income can
be determined by the average length of holidaying at Derby and average local pricing
for accommodation, food and beverages and related essentials. Tickets sales are
largely affected by the similar factors such as average expense per activity
and average number of activities that tourists usually choose. Having explained
the streams of possible income from the tourism, the key driver for tourism
income is the desire or demand to travel. Unlikely logging, tourism is
renewable and perpetual. However, logging can be conceived as a major
constraint on attracting as many tourists as the economy so desires.
This is because deforestation caused by logging will
diminish the natural scenery at Derby and in turn, the tourist operations and
attractions based upon natural scenery. Loss of forest resources is likely to
make Derby less attractive to visitors.
In short, the tourism and logging both provides economic benefits
to Derby but in a competing relationship. However, the sustainability possessed by tourism cannot be rivaled by industrial logging in long term. Logging revenue reveals its advantage at inception of observed time period. Such advantage wears out over the time due to reduction in resources and sluggish regrowth. Eventually. the tourism income turns into the major player. To understand how they co-exist,
please simulate the model.
A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure
tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania.
How the model works:
Trees grow, and we cut them down because of the demand for Timber and
sell the logs. Mountain bikers and holiday visitors will come to the park and
this depends on experience and recommendations. Past experience and
recommendations depend on the Scenery, number of trees compared to the visitor
and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number
of users. To utilize highest park capacity, they need to promote to
the holiday visitor segment as well. Again, the visit depends on the scenery.
So, both mountain biking and forestry (logging) businesses need to contribute a
significant amount of revenue to CSR for faster regrowth of trees.
It looks like a lot of logging doesn't stop people from mountain biking.
Faster replantation of the tree will balance out the impact created by
logging which will give the visitor a positive experience
and the number of visitors is both improved.
To keep the park's popularity in check, the price of wood needs to be high.
Also, it looks like mountain biking only needs a narrow path.CSR contribution to nature can be a crucial factor.