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# Mat375

#### Isle Royale: Predator/Prey Model for Moose and Wolves

This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale. It was "cloned" from a model that InsightMaker provides to its users, at
https://insightmaker.com/insight/2068/Isle-Royale-Predator-Prey-Interactions
Thanks Scott Fortmann-Roe.

I've created a Mathematica file that replicates the model, at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker.nb

It allows one to experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.

I used steepest descent in Mathematica to optimize the parameters, with my objective data being the ratio of wolves to moose. You can try my (admittedly) kludgy code, at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker-BestFit.nb

{WolfBirthRateFactorStart,
WolfDeathRateStart,
MooseBirthRateStart,
MooseDeathRateFactorStart,
moStart,
woStart} =
{0.000267409,
0.239821,
0.269755,
0.0113679,
591,
23.};

• 3 years 8 months ago

#### Logistic Growth

This simple model demonstrates logistic growth.The differential equation looks like

y'(t)=by(t)(1-y(t)/K)

where K is the carrying capacity of the quantity y. Alternatively,

y'(t)=by(t) - b/K*y(t)^2

so the growth term suggests exponential growth, but there is a loss term is of the form b/K y(t) -- loss is proportional to population (crowding).

A comparable Mathematica file is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/LogisticGrowth-and-DecayModel.nb
• 1 year 6 months ago

#### Exponential Growth

This simple model demonstrates exponential growth or decay in a population.

A comparable Mathematica file is at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/ExponentialGrowth-and-DecayModel.nb
• 3 years 8 months ago

#### Coronavirus: A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) with death

Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.
Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure
With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.
Resources:
• 1 year 5 months ago

#### A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) Example

This is a first example of a simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model.

There are three pools of individuals: those who are infected (without them, no disease!), the pool of those who are at risk (susceptible), and the recovered -- who may lose their immunity and become susceptible again.

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel.nb

• 1 year 6 months ago

#### A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model

This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.

We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).

The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.

Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb

• 1 year 7 months ago

#### Cannibalistic and Chaotic Flour Beetles

This is an example from Cushing's book An Introduction to Structured Population Dynamics. ​

The parameters initially included reproduce the bifurcation results on p. 39 of Cushing's manuscript.
The tuning parameter is b, the birthrate.

p. 37: The LPA flour beetle model.

The bifurcation diagram for parameter b is on page 39;
The bifurcation diagram for mu adult is on p. 59;
The bifurcation diagram for C pa is on p. 60.

Andy Long

• 3 years 6 months ago

#### A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) without infection

This is a simple example of (part of a) simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model, suggested by De Vries, et al. in A Course in Mathematical Biology.

They wanted to illustrate the comparative behavior of differential equations and discrete difference equations. We know that differential equations are generally solved numerically by discretizing them, so that the comparison is a little bit rigged....

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-w-discrete-version.nb

• 3 years 8 months ago

#### Basic Model, Tyson Lynx and Hare

The basic model of Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators (Tyson, et al.) demonstrates logistic growth in prey, and in predator (with prey dependence for carrying capacity). But interestingly, one possibility is limit cycles, which mimic the cycling of the populations in nature.

The differential equations for the population of hare (x) is

x'(t) = rx(1-x/K)            - gamma x^2/(x^2+eta^2)            - alpha y x/(x+mu)
where K is the logistic carrying capacity of the prey (hare), in the absence of predation; the second term is a "generalist predation" term;  and the third term is the "specialist predation" (in the limit as the prey gets big, this becomes simply proportional to y (the lynx population)).

The differential equations for the population of lynx (y) is
y'(t) = sy(1- qy/x) = sy - sqy^2/x
for the predator (lynx), which is essentially logistic growth. Its growth term suggests exponential growth, but there is a loss term of the form sqy^2/x -- loss is proportional to population (crowding), and inversely proportional to prey density. As the hare population goes to zero, so shall the lynx....

As one can see, the prey density won't change if y=x/q. If the prey density were not changing at the same time, the system would be at equilibrium.

In this InsightMaker model, I scaled the second equation by multiplying by q, then replace y by w=qy throughout both equations. This requires a slight change in the prey equation -- alpha replaced by the ratio of alpha/q.  (I used my favorite mathematical trick, of multiplying by the appropriate form of 1!)
So what we're really looking at here is the system

x'(t) = rx(1-x/K)            - gamma x^2/(x^2+eta^2)            - alpha/q w x/(x+mu)w'(t) = sw(1- w/x)

where w(t)=qy(t).

Tyson, et al. took q to be about 212 for hare and lynx -- so that it requires about 212 hare to allow for one lynx to survive at "equilibrium".

However, when alpha -- the hares/lynx/year -- gets sufficiently large (e.g. 1867 -- and that does seem like a lot of hares per lynx per year...:), limit cycles develop (rather than a stable equilibrium). This means that the populations oscillate about the equilibrium values, rather than stabilize at those values.

Author: Andy Long, Northern Kentucky University (2020)

Reference: Tyson, Rebecca, Sheena Haines,  Karen Hodges. Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators. Theoretical Ecology. 3, 97–111 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-009-0057-1
Resource: A comparable Mathematica model can be found at  http://ceadserv1.nku.edu/longa//classes/mat375/days/Mathematica/BasicModel.nb, which allows one to experiment a little more easily than one can with this InsightMaker model.
• 1 year 6 months ago

#### Flakes no more!

This is an introductory example from Olinick's book An Introduction to Mathematical Models in the Social and Life Sciences. ​

Next up: and SIR, and his interesting model of female birth weights.
• 3 years 7 months ago

#### English Mother/Daughter Birth Weights

This is an introductory example from Olinick's book An Introduction to Mathematical Models in the Social and Life Sciences. ​

"A recent study focused on the relationship between the birth weights of English women and the birth weights of their daughters. The weights were split into three categories: low (below 6 pounds), average (between 6 and 8 pounds), and high (above 8 pounds). Among women whose own birth weights were low, 50 percent of the daughters had low birth weights, 45 percent had average weights, and 5 percent had high weights. Women with average birth weights had daughters with average weights half of the time, while the half was split evenly between low and high categories. Women with high birth weights had female babies with high weights 40 percent of the time, with low and average weights each occuring 30 percent of the time." p. 274-275.

For the Markov chain, you should make sure that you're taking time steps of length 1 in the settings, and Euler. RK-4 effectively looks beyond a single previous step, so it has a sort of memory!

Thanks Mike! Interesting examples, as always....
Andy Long

Next up: an SIR.
• 3 years 7 months ago

#### A Simple, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model, with periodic infectivity

This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.

We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).

The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.

Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb

• 3 years 8 months ago

#### Driehaus Cannibalistic and Chaotic Flour Beetles

This is an example from Cushing's book An Introduction to Structured Population Dynamics. ​

The parameters initially included reproduce the bifurcation results on p. 39 of Cushing's manuscript.
The tuning parameter is b, the birthrate.

p. 37: The LPA flour beetle model.

The bifurcation diagram for parameter b is on page 39;
The bifurcation diagram for mu adult is on p. 59;
The bifurcation diagram for C pa is on p. 60.

Andy Long

• 3 years 6 months ago

#### MAT 375 Midterm file: Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions

This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.

Thanks to Jacob Englert for the model if-then-else structure.

Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20

I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.

The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W

• 3 years 7 months ago

#### Day 22: Isle Royale: Predator/Prey Model for Moose and Wolves

This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale. It was "cloned" from a model that InsightMaker provides to its users, at
https://insightmaker.com/insight/2068/Isle-Royale-Predator-Prey-Interactions
Thanks Scott Fortmann-Roe.

I've created a Mathematica file that replicates the model, at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker.nb

It allows one to experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.

I used steepest descent in Mathematica to optimize the parameters, with my objective data being the ratio of wolves to moose. You can try my (admittedly) kludgy code, at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker-BestFit.nb

{WolfBirthRateFactorStart,
WolfDeathRateStart,
MooseBirthRateStart,
MooseDeathRateFactorStart,
moStart,
woStart} =
{0.000267409,
0.239821,
0.269755,
0.0113679,
591,
23.};

• 3 years 7 months ago

#### SIR (poisoning would be better) Markov Model

This is an example I thought of after reading Olinick's book An Introduction to Mathematical Models in the Social and Life Sciences. ​

It's an SIR-type model, but one where the equilibrium (ws,wi,wr) is always the same, even as the weights in the transition matrix change.

Actually it might be better to think of this as a poisoning model: the rate of infection is constant, and independent of the existence of an infected population. That's more like disease due to an environmental effect (e.g. lead-poisoning from smelters, or mercury poisoning from the burning of coal). So infected would mean "effected", and "recovered" might be "treated" -- and ultimately released, to be exposed again.

This shows that the equilibrium does not determine the transition probabilities: two different transition matrices can have the same ultimate equilibrium.

There is a constraint on the infection rate that I haven't figured out how to build in:

InfectionRate < Min[1,wi/ws, wr/ws]

I can allow InfectionRate to vary up to 1 if I take
ws < wi
and
ws < wr
However if you violate that, you'll get interesting solutions with negative values of populations. The dynamics are pretty interesting in that case, however! If you want to see them, you'll have to remove the constraints that I put on the parameters in the Recover and LossOfImmunity parameters.

Thanks Mike! Interesting examples, as always....
Andy Long

• 3 years 6 months ago

#### Driehaus SIR Markov Chain

This is an introductory example from Olinick's book An Introduction to Mathematical Models in the Social and Life Sciences. ​

"A recent study focused on the relationship between the birth weights of English women and the birth weights of their daughters. The weights were split into three categories: low (below 6 pounds), average (between 6 and 8 pounds), and high (above 8 pounds). Among women whose own birth weights were low, 50 percent of the daughters had low birth weights, 45 percent had average weights, and 5 percent had high weights. Women with average birth weights had daughters with average weights half of the time, while the half was split evenly between low and high categories. Women with high birth weights had female babies with high weights 40 percent of the time, with low and average weights each occuring 30 percent of the time." p. 274-275.

For the Markov chain, you should make sure that you're taking time steps of length 1 in the settings, and Euler. RK-4 effectively looks beyond a single previous step, so it has a sort of memory!

Thanks Mike! Interesting examples, as always....
Andy Long

Next up: an SIR.
• 3 years 7 months ago

#### Driehaus Cannibalistic and Chaotic Flour Beetles

This is an example from Cushing's book An Introduction to Structured Population Dynamics. ​

The parameters initially included reproduce the bifurcation results on p. 39 of Cushing's manuscript.
The tuning parameter is b, the birthrate.

p. 37: The LPA flour beetle model.

The bifurcation diagram for parameter b is on page 39;
The bifurcation diagram for mu adult is on p. 59;
The bifurcation diagram for C pa is on p. 60.

Andy Long

• 3 years 5 months ago

#### Galla Example

This is an introductory example from Olinick's book An Introduction to Mathematical Models in the Social and Life Sciences. ​

Galla age distribution model.

Thanks Mike! Interesting examples, as always....
Andy Long

Next up: an SIR.
• 3 years 6 months ago

#### Driehaus Galla Example

This is an introductory example from Olinick's book An Introduction to Mathematical Models in the Social and Life Sciences. ​

Galla with the different classes.

Thanks Mike! Interesting examples, as always....
Andy Long

Next up: an SIR.
• 3 years 6 months ago