#### Isle Royale: Predator/Prey Model for Moose and Wolves

##### Andrew E Long

This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale. It was "cloned" from a model that InsightMaker provides to its users, at

https://insightmaker.com/insight/2068/Isle-Royale-Predator-Prey-Interactions

Thanks Scott Fortmann-Roe.

I've created a Mathematica file that replicates the model, at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker.nb

It allows one to experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.

I used steepest descent in Mathematica to optimize the parameters, with my objective data being the ratio of wolves to moose. You can try my (admittedly) kludgy code, at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker-BestFit.nb

{WolfBirthRateFactorStart,

WolfDeathRateStart,

MooseBirthRateStart,

MooseDeathRateFactorStart,

moStart,

woStart} =

{0.000267409,

0.239821,

0.269755,

0.0113679,

591,

23.};

https://insightmaker.com/insight/2068/Isle-Royale-Predator-Prey-Interactions

Thanks Scott Fortmann-Roe.

I've created a Mathematica file that replicates the model, at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker.nb

It allows one to experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.

I used steepest descent in Mathematica to optimize the parameters, with my objective data being the ratio of wolves to moose. You can try my (admittedly) kludgy code, at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker-BestFit.nb

{WolfBirthRateFactorStart,

WolfDeathRateStart,

MooseBirthRateStart,

MooseDeathRateFactorStart,

moStart,

woStart} =

{0.000267409,

0.239821,

0.269755,

0.0113679,

591,

23.};

- 1 year 4 months ago

#### A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model

##### Andrew E Long

This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.

We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).

The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.

Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb

We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).

The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.

Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb

- 1 year 4 months ago

#### Exponential Growth

##### Andrew E Long

This simple model demonstrates exponential growth or decay in a population.

A comparable Mathematica file is at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/ExponentialGrowth-and-DecayModel.nb

A comparable Mathematica file is at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/ExponentialGrowth-and-DecayModel.nb

- 1 year 5 months ago

#### A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) without infection

##### Andrew E Long

This is a simple example of (part of a) simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model, suggested by De Vries, et al. in A Course in Mathematical Biology.

They wanted to illustrate the comparative behavior of differential equations and discrete difference equations. We know that differential equations are generally solved numerically by discretizing them, so that the comparison is a little bit rigged....

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-w-discrete-version.nb

They wanted to illustrate the comparative behavior of differential equations and discrete difference equations. We know that differential equations are generally solved numerically by discretizing them, so that the comparison is a little bit rigged....

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-w-discrete-version.nb

- 1 year 5 months ago

#### A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) Example

##### Andrew E Long

This is a first example of a simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model.

There are three pools of individuals: those who are infected (without them, no disease!), the pool of those who are at risk (susceptible), and the recovered -- who may lose their immunity and become susceptible again.

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel.nb

There are three pools of individuals: those who are infected (without them, no disease!), the pool of those who are at risk (susceptible), and the recovered -- who may lose their immunity and become susceptible again.

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel.nb

- 1 year 5 months ago

#### Clone of A Simple Infection-only SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) Example

##### Sally Dufek

This is a simple example of (part of a) simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model, suggested by De Vries, et al. in A Course in Mathematical Biology.

They wanted to illustrate the comparative behavior of differential equations and discrete difference equations. We know that differential equations are generally solved numerically by discretizing them, so that the comparison is a little bit rigged....

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-w-discrete-version.nb

They wanted to illustrate the comparative behavior of differential equations and discrete difference equations. We know that differential equations are generally solved numerically by discretizing them, so that the comparison is a little bit rigged....

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-w-discrete-version.nb

- 1 year 5 months ago

#### Logistic Growth

##### Andrew E Long

This simple model demonstrates logistic growth.The differential equation looks like

y'(t)=by(t)(1-y(t)/K)

where K is the carrying capacity of the quantity y.

y'(t)=by(t) - b/K*y(t)^2

so the loss term is of the form b/K.

A comparable Mathematica file is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/LogisticGrowth-and-DecayModel.nb

y'(t)=by(t)(1-y(t)/K)

where K is the carrying capacity of the quantity y.

y'(t)=by(t) - b/K*y(t)^2

so the loss term is of the form b/K.

A comparable Mathematica file is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/LogisticGrowth-and-DecayModel.nb

- 1 year 5 months ago

#### Day 22: Isle Royale: Predator/Prey Model for Moose and Wolves

##### Jacob Englert

This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale. It was "cloned" from a model that InsightMaker provides to its users, at

https://insightmaker.com/insight/2068/Isle-Royale-Predator-Prey-Interactions

Thanks Scott Fortmann-Roe.

I've created a Mathematica file that replicates the model, at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker.nb

It allows one to experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.

I used steepest descent in Mathematica to optimize the parameters, with my objective data being the ratio of wolves to moose. You can try my (admittedly) kludgy code, at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker-BestFit.nb

{WolfBirthRateFactorStart,

WolfDeathRateStart,

MooseBirthRateStart,

MooseDeathRateFactorStart,

moStart,

woStart} =

{0.000267409,

0.239821,

0.269755,

0.0113679,

591,

23.};

https://insightmaker.com/insight/2068/Isle-Royale-Predator-Prey-Interactions

Thanks Scott Fortmann-Roe.

I've created a Mathematica file that replicates the model, at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker.nb

It allows one to experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.

I used steepest descent in Mathematica to optimize the parameters, with my objective data being the ratio of wolves to moose. You can try my (admittedly) kludgy code, at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker-BestFit.nb

{WolfBirthRateFactorStart,

WolfDeathRateStart,

MooseBirthRateStart,

MooseDeathRateFactorStart,

moStart,

woStart} =

{0.000267409,

0.239821,

0.269755,

0.0113679,

591,

23.};

- 1 year 4 months ago

#### SIR model with stochastic events

##### Andrew E Long

Thanks to

https://insightmaker.com/insight/25229/SIR-model-with-stochastic-events

for this example of adding stochasticity to the SIR model. "A simple extension of the tutorial SIR example, adding in Poisson events for infection and recovery. There is one macro, RandPoissonStep(rate)... to simulate Poisson processes."

I've tried to add in the infection step, as well as turn numbers into integers (without much luck). But it certainly has some interesting dynamics! I've also added in a phase plane graphic.

https://insightmaker.com/insight/25229/SIR-model-with-stochastic-events

for this example of adding stochasticity to the SIR model. "A simple extension of the tutorial SIR example, adding in Poisson events for infection and recovery. There is one macro, RandPoissonStep(rate)... to simulate Poisson processes."

I've tried to add in the infection step, as well as turn numbers into integers (without much luck). But it certainly has some interesting dynamics! I've also added in a phase plane graphic.

- 1 year 4 months ago

#### Isle Royale: Predator/Prey Model for Moose and Wolves, with Total Population

##### Andrew E Long

This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale. It was "cloned" from a model that InsightMaker provides to its users, at

https://insightmaker.com/insight/2068/Isle-Royale-Predator-Prey-Interactions

Thanks Scott Fortmann-Roe.

I've added in an adjustment to handle population.

I've created a Mathematica file that replicates the model, at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker.nb

It allows one to experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.

I used steepest descent in Mathematica to optimize the parameters, with my objective data being the ratio of wolves to moose. You can try my (admittedly) kludgy code, at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker-BestFit.nb

{WolfBirthRateFactorStart,

WolfDeathRateStart,

MooseBirthRateStart,

MooseDeathRateFactorStart,

moStart,

woStart} =

{0.000267409,

0.239821,

0.269755,

0.0113679,

591,

23.};

https://insightmaker.com/insight/2068/Isle-Royale-Predator-Prey-Interactions

Thanks Scott Fortmann-Roe.

I've added in an adjustment to handle population.

I've created a Mathematica file that replicates the model, at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker.nb

It allows one to experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.

I used steepest descent in Mathematica to optimize the parameters, with my objective data being the ratio of wolves to moose. You can try my (admittedly) kludgy code, at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker-BestFit.nb

{WolfBirthRateFactorStart,

WolfDeathRateStart,

MooseBirthRateStart,

MooseDeathRateFactorStart,

moStart,

woStart} =

{0.000267409,

0.239821,

0.269755,

0.0113679,

591,

23.};

- 1 year 4 months ago

#### A Simple, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model, with periodic infectivity

##### Andrew E Long

This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.

We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).

The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.

Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb

We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).

The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.

Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb

- 1 year 5 months ago

#### Sleek, non-dimensionalized Isle Royale: Predator/Prey Model for Moose and Wolves

##### Andrew E Long

This non-dimensionalized, sleekest most neatest model illustrates predator prey interactions using logistic growth for the moose population, for the wolf and moose populations on Isle Royale.

Thanks Scott Fortmann-Roe for the original model.

I've added in an adjustment to handle population sizes, by dividing by moose carrying capacity.

Time is scaled by the moose birth parameter:

tau=bm*t

There are therefore only three parameters left to account for any dynamics:

beta = bw/bm (relative wolf to moose births)

delta = dm/bm (relative death to birth ratio for moose)

gamma = dw/bm (wolf deaths to moose births)

The equations are thus

dM/dtau = M [ (1-M) - delta W ]

dW/dtau = W [beta M - gamma ]

There is a stable equilibrium pair of population values, relative to the carrying capacity:

M^* = gamma / beta

W^* = (1-gamma / beta) / delta

I have a sleek version with a logistical growth term for the moose, at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker-sleek.nb

Thanks Scott Fortmann-Roe for the original model.

I've added in an adjustment to handle population sizes, by dividing by moose carrying capacity.

Time is scaled by the moose birth parameter:

tau=bm*t

There are therefore only three parameters left to account for any dynamics:

beta = bw/bm (relative wolf to moose births)

delta = dm/bm (relative death to birth ratio for moose)

gamma = dw/bm (wolf deaths to moose births)

The equations are thus

dM/dtau = M [ (1-M) - delta W ]

dW/dtau = W [beta M - gamma ]

There is a stable equilibrium pair of population values, relative to the carrying capacity:

M^* = gamma / beta

W^* = (1-gamma / beta) / delta

I have a sleek version with a logistical growth term for the moose, at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker-sleek.nb

- 1 year 4 months ago

#### Clone of Isle Royale: Predator/Prey Model for Moose and Wolves

##### Patrick Nielsen

This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale. It was "cloned" from a model that InsightMaker provides to its users, at

https://insightmaker.com/insight/2068/Isle-Royale-Predator-Prey-Interactions

Thanks Scott Fortmann-Roe.

I've created a Mathematica file that replicates the model, at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker.nb

It allows one to experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.

I used steepest descent in Mathematica to optimize the parameters, with my objective data being the ratio of wolves to moose. You can try my (admittedly) kludgy code, at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker-BestFit.nb

{WolfBirthRateFactorStart,

WolfDeathRateStart,

MooseBirthRateStart,

MooseDeathRateFactorStart,

moStart,

woStart} =

{0.000267409,

0.239821,

0.269755,

0.0113679,

591,

23.};

https://insightmaker.com/insight/2068/Isle-Royale-Predator-Prey-Interactions

Thanks Scott Fortmann-Roe.

I've created a Mathematica file that replicates the model, at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker.nb

It allows one to experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.

I used steepest descent in Mathematica to optimize the parameters, with my objective data being the ratio of wolves to moose. You can try my (admittedly) kludgy code, at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker-BestFit.nb

{WolfBirthRateFactorStart,

WolfDeathRateStart,

MooseBirthRateStart,

MooseDeathRateFactorStart,

moStart,

woStart} =

{0.000267409,

0.239821,

0.269755,

0.0113679,

591,

23.};

- 1 year 4 months ago

#### Clone of A Simple Infection-only SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) Example

##### Maria McMahon

This is a simple example of (part of a) simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model, suggested by De Vries, et al. in A Course in Mathematical Biology.

They wanted to illustrate the comparative behavior of differential equations and discrete difference equations. We know that differential equations are generally solved numerically by discretizing them, so that the comparison is a little bit rigged....

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-w-discrete-version.nb

They wanted to illustrate the comparative behavior of differential equations and discrete difference equations. We know that differential equations are generally solved numerically by discretizing them, so that the comparison is a little bit rigged....

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-w-discrete-version.nb

- 1 year 5 months ago

#### Clone of Clone of A Simple Infection-only SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) Example

##### Leah Gillespie

They wanted to illustrate the comparative behavior of differential equations and discrete difference equations. We know that differential equations are generally solved numerically by discretizing them, so that the comparison is a little bit rigged....

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-w-discrete-version.nb

- 1 year 5 months ago

#### Clone of A Simple Infection-only SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) Example

##### Connor Edwards

They wanted to illustrate the comparative behavior of differential equations and discrete difference equations. We know that differential equations are generally solved numerically by discretizing them, so that the comparison is a little bit rigged....

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-w-discrete-version.nb

- 1 year 5 months ago

#### Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model

##### Leah Gillespie

This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.

We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).

The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.

Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb

We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).

The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.

Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb

- 1 year 5 months ago

#### Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model

##### Christopher Milesky

We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).

The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.

Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb

- 1 year 5 months ago

#### Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model

##### Jacob Englert

We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).

The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.

Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb

- 1 year 4 months ago

#### Clone of A Simple Infection-only SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) Example

##### Leah Gillespie

They wanted to illustrate the comparative behavior of differential equations and discrete difference equations. We know that differential equations are generally solved numerically by discretizing them, so that the comparison is a little bit rigged....

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-w-discrete-version.nb

- 1 year 5 months ago

#### Clone of Isle Royale: Predator/Prey Model for Moose and Wolves

##### Clay Frink

https://insightmaker.com/insight/2068/Isle-Royale-Predator-Prey-Interactions

Thanks Scott Fortmann-Roe.

I've created a Mathematica file that replicates the model, at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker.nb

It allows one to experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.

I used steepest descent in Mathematica to optimize the parameters, with my objective data being the ratio of wolves to moose. You can try my (admittedly) kludgy code, at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker-BestFit.nb

{WolfBirthRateFactorStart,

WolfDeathRateStart,

MooseBirthRateStart,

MooseDeathRateFactorStart,

moStart,

woStart} =

{0.000267409,

0.239821,

0.269755,

0.0113679,

591,

23.};

- 1 year 4 months ago

#### Clone of A Simple Infection-only SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) Example

##### Maria E Ruwe

They wanted to illustrate the comparative behavior of differential equations and discrete difference equations. We know that differential equations are generally solved numerically by discretizing them, so that the comparison is a little bit rigged....

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-w-discrete-version.nb

- 1 year 5 months ago

#### Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model

##### Maria E Ruwe

We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).

The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.

Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb

- 1 year 4 months ago

#### Clone of A Simple Infection-only SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) Example

##### Donna Odhiambo

They wanted to illustrate the comparative behavior of differential equations and discrete difference equations. We know that differential equations are generally solved numerically by discretizing them, so that the comparison is a little bit rigged....

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-w-discrete-version.nb

- 1 year 5 months ago