This (simplest!) model demonstrates logistic growth.The original differential equation looks like
y'(t) = b y(t) (1 - y(t)/K)
where K is the carrying capacity of the quantity y.
But if we divide each side of the equation by K, we obtain
d(y/K)/dt = b (y/K) (1-y/K)
Defining a new variable w, the population relative to its carrying capacity, we obtain
dw/dt = b w (1 - w)
Finally we divide both sides by b, to write
dw/d(bt) = w (1 - w)
So if we work in dimensionless time units of bt, we have
w' = w (1 - w)
where the derivative is with respect to the variable bt=τ. .
τ=τ
This
This equation, as simple as possible, contains all the dynamics (all the ways
the population can behave), while masking the "trivialities"; but it kind of
hides the physical aspects of the problem. So it's easy to study, but harder to
interpret: alas, you can't have it all!:)
τ=1 when t=1b: so if b=.5/year, then τ=1 when t=2.
So
the larger b (the greater the birthrate), the shorter the real time t to give τ=1.
τ=τ=
τ=
Non-dimensionalized Logistic Growth
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model
This (simplest!) model demonstrates logistic growth.The original differential equation looks like
y'(t) = b y(t) (1 - y(t)/K)
where K is the carrying capacity of the quantity y.
But if we divide each side of the equation by K, we obtain
d(y/K)/dt = b (y/K) (1-y/K)
Defining a new variable w, the population relative to its carrying capacity, we obtain
dw/dt = b w (1 - w)
Finally we divide both sides by b, to write
dw/d(bt) = w (1 - w)
So if we work in dimensionless time units of bt, we have
w' = w (1 - w)
where the derivative is with respect to the variable bt=τ. .
τ=τ
This
This equation, as simple as possible, contains all the dynamics (all the ways
the population can behave), while masking the "trivialities"; but it kind of
hides the physical aspects of the problem. So it's easy to study, but harder to
interpret: alas, you can't have it all!:)
τ=1 when t=1b: so if b=.5/year, then τ=1 when t=2.
So
the larger b (the greater the birthrate), the shorter the real time t to give τ=1.
τ=τ=
τ=
Clone of Non-dimensionalized Logistic Growth
This (simplest!) model demonstrates logistic growth.The original differential equation looks like
y'(t) = b y(t) (1 - y(t)/K)
where K is the carrying capacity of the quantity y.
But if we divide each side of the equation by K, we obtain
d(y/K)/dt = b (y/K) (1-y/K)
Defining a new variable w, the population relative to its carrying capacity, we obtain
dw/dt = b w (1 - w)
Finally we divide both sides by b, to write
dw/d(bt) = w (1 - w)
So if we work in dimensionless time units of bt, we have
w' = w (1 - w)
where the derivative is with respect to the variable bt=τ. .
τ=τ
This
This equation, as simple as possible, contains all the dynamics (all the ways
the population can behave), while masking the "trivialities"; but it kind of
hides the physical aspects of the problem. So it's easy to study, but harder to
interpret: alas, you can't have it all!:)
τ=1 when t=1b: so if b=.5/year, then τ=1 when t=2.
So
the larger b (the greater the birthrate), the shorter the real time t to give τ=1.
τ=τ=
τ=
Clone of Non-dimensionalized Logistic Growth
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model
This is an example of an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model that has been re-parameterized down to the bare minimum, to illustrated the dynamics possible with the fewest number of parameters.
We're rescaled this SIR model, so that time is given in infection rate-appropriate time units, "rates" are now ratios of rates (with infectivity rate in the denominator), and populations are considered proportions (unfortunately InsightMaker doesn't function properly if I give them all values from 0 to 1, which sum to 1 -- so, at the moment, I give them values that sum to 100, and consider the results percentages).
The new display includes the asymptotics: the three sub-populations will tend to fixed values as time goes to infinity; the infected population goes to zero if the recovery rate is greater than the infectivity rate -- i.e., the disease dies out.
Note the use of a "ghost" stock (for Total Population), which I think is a pretty cool idea. It cuts down on the number of arcs in the model graph.
A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-rescaled.nb
Clone of A Sleek, non-dimensionalized SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model