Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie(Yafei Shi 489576)
This is a system dynamics model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie which shows the process of infections and how government responses, impact on the local economy.
First part is outbreak model, we can know that when people is infected, there are two situations. One is that he recovers from treatment, but even if he recovered, the immunity loss rate increase, makes him to become infected again. The other situation is death. In this outbreak, the government's health policies (ban on non-essential trips, closure of non-essential retailers, limits on public gatherings and quarantine ) help to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 new cases. Moreover, government legislation is dependent on number of COVID-19 cases and testing rates.
Second part: the model of Govt legislation and economic impact. Gov policy can help to reduce infection rate and local economy at same way. The increase of number of COVID-19 cases has a negative impact on local Tourism industry and economic growth rate. On the other hand, Govt legislation also can be change when reported COVID-19 case are less or equal to 10.
BMA 708, Assessment Tast 3: Complex System, Burnie COVID-19 outbreak, Diprina Shakya-519673
AssumptionsLockdown and travel ban were the main factor in government policy. It negatively impacts on the Economic growth as individuals are not going out which is directly affects the business around the world, in this insight 'Burnie'. This reduces the economic growth and the factors positively effecting economic growth such as Tourism.
Government policies has a negative impact on Exposer of individuals. Moreover, it also has a negative impact on chances of infection when exposed as well as other general infection rate.
Interesting Insight There is a significant impact of test rating on COVID-19 outbreak. Higher rates increases the government involvement, which decreases cases as well as the total death. In contrast, lower testing rates increase the death rate and cases.
Tourism which plays a avital role in Tasmanian Economy greatly affects the Economic Growth. The decline of Tourism in parts of Tasmania such as Burnie, would directly decrease the economy of Tasmania.
COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania - Lin Ling 523592
The COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania shows the process of COVID-19 outbreak, the impacts of government policy on both the COVID-19 outbreak and the GDP growth in Burnie.
We set some variables at fix rates, including the immunity loss rate, recovery rate, death rate, infection rate and case impact rate, as they usually depend on the individual health conditions and social activities.
It should be noticed that we set the rate of recovery, which is 0.7, is higher than that of immunity loss rate, which is 0.5, so, the number of susceptible could be reduced over time.
Adjustments: (please compare the numbers at week 52)
Step 1: Set all the variables at minimum values and simulate
results: Number of Infected – 135; Recovered – 218; Cases – 597; Death – 18,175; GDP – 10,879.
Step 2: Increase the variables of Health Policy, Quarantine, and Travel Restriction to 0.03, others keep the same as step 1, and simulate
results: Number of Infected – 166 (up); Recovered – 249 (up); Cases – 554 (down); Death – 18,077 (down); GDP – 824 (down).
So, the increase of health policy, quarantine and travel restriction will help increase recovery, decrease confirmed cases, decrease death, but also decrease GDP.
Step 3: Increase the variables of Testing Rate to 0.4, others keep the same as step 2, and simulate
results: Number of Infected – 152 (down); Recovered – 243 (down); Cases – 1022 (up); Death – 17,625 (down); GDP – 824 (same).
So, the increase of testing rate will help to increase the confirmed cases.
Step 4: Change GDP Growth Rate to 0.14, Tourism Growth Rate to 0.02, others keep the same as step 3, and simulate
results: Number of Infected – 152 (same); Recovered – 243 (same); Cases – 1022 (same); Death – 17,625 (same); GDP – 6,632 (up).
So, the increase of GDP growth rate and tourism growth rate will helps to improve the GDP in Burnie.
Infectious Disease Model (Version 4.0)
Model of Covid-19 outbreaks at Burnie (Yingchao Yang,503757)
This model assumes that if the COVID-19 cases are more than 10, the government will take action such as quarantine and lockdown at the area. These policy can indirectly affect the local economy in many different way. At the same time, strict policy may be essential for combating Covid-19.
From the simulation of the model, we can clearly see that the economy of Burine will be steady increase when government successfully reduces the COVID-19 cased and make it spreading slower.
Interesting finding: In this pandemic, the testing rate and the recovery rate are important to stop Covid-19 spreading. Once the cases of Covid-19 less than 10, the government might stop intervention and the economy of Burnie will back to normal.
Evolution of Covid-19 in Brazil: A System Dynamics Approach
Villela, Paulo (2020)
This model is based on Crokidakis, Nuno. (2020). Data analysis and modeling of the evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil. For more details see full paper here.
Eine Systemische Sicht auf Covid-19
Dieses Causal Loop Diagramm (CLD) versucht in vereinfachter Weisse die Wesentliche Dynamik des Mars-CoV-2 zu veranschaulichen. Der Motor hinter den Infektionen ist offensichtlich eine selbstverstärkende Rückkopplungsschleife, und ausschlaggebend in diesem Bezug ist der R-Wert. Wenn der R-Wert unter 1 liegt, dann heisst das, dass eine infizierte Person während des Zeitraums, in dem sie infektiös ist, weniger als eine andere Person infiziert. Liegt der Wert über 1, dann steckt die Infizierte mehr als eine andere Person an, und das Virus verbreitet sich exponentiell. Die Schleifen, die blaue Pfeile enthalten, sind negative Rückkopplungsschleifen – sie bremsen die Verbreitung des Virus. Das Diagramm suggeriert, dass der R-Wert als Schlüssel zur Kontrolle der Verbreitung des Virus dienen könnte. Sollte der Wert über 1 steigen, so müssten Schutzmassnahem eingeführt werden. Ist der Wert unter 1, dann sind die negativen Schleifen dominierend und einige Massnahmen könnten gelockert werden.
COVID-19: description des types de population
SEIR Infectious Disease Model for COVID-19
COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania (Rajaa Sajjad, 538837)
ABOUT THE MODEL
This is a dynamic model that shows the correlation between the health-related policies implemented by the Government in response to COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania, and the policies’ impact on the Economic activity of the area.
The increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is directly proportional to the increase in the Government policies in the infected region. The Government policies negatively impact the economy of Burnie, Tasmania.
1. When the borders are closed by the government, the economy is severely affected by the decrease of revenue generated by the Civil aviation/Migration rate. As the number of COVID-19 cases increase, the number of people allowed to enter Australian borders will also decrease by the government.
2. The Economic activity sharply increases and stays in uniformity.
3. The death rate drastically decreased as we increased test rate by 90%.
Future Learn Basic SIR Model with Sample Testing
Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tamania ( WANTING BAO, 536865)
This model shows COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie have some impact for local economy situation and government policy. The main government policy is lockdown during the spreading period which can help reduce the infected rate, and also increase the test scale to help susceptible confirm their situation.
Infection rate, Death rate, Recovery rate, test rate, susceptible, immunity rate, economy growth rate
These variables are influenced by different situation.
When cases over 10, government will implement lockdown policy.
When cases increase too much , they will influence the economic situation.
If the recover rate is higher, more people will recover from the disease. It seems to be a positive sign. However, it would lead to a higher number of recovered people and more susceptible. As a result, there would be more cases, and would have a negative impact on the economic growth.
Complex Systems How Burnie Tasmania dealt with Covid-19 Outbreak BMA708
This model is based on the SIR, Susceptible, Infection, Recovery (or Removed) These are the three possible states related to the members of the Burnie population when a contagious decease spreads.
The Government/Government Health Policy, played a big part in the successful decrease in Covid-19 infections. The Government enforced the following.
- No travel (interstate or international)
- Isolation within the residents homes
- Social distancing by 1.5m
- Non essential companies to be temporarily closed
- Limitations on public gatherings
- And limits on time and kilometers aloud to travel from ones home within a local community
This resulted in lower reported infection rates of Covid-19 and higher recovery rates.
In my opinion: When the first case was reported the Government could have been even faster to enforce these rules to decrease the fatality rates further for the Burnie, population.
Assumption: Government policies were only triggered when 10 cases were recorded.
Also, more cases that had been recorded effected the economic growth during this time.
Interesting Findings: In the simulation it shows as the death rates increases towards the end of the week, the rate of testing goes down. You would think that the government would have enforced a higher testing rate over the duration of this time to decrease the number of infections, exposed which would increase the recovery rates faster and more efficiently.
Figures have been determined by the population of Burnie being 19,380 at the time of assignment.
COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie model by LUJIN 517217
This model assumes that more COVID-19 cases will lead to the more serious lockdown policy of the local government, which indirectly affect the economic activities and economic growth. The primary reason is that the lockdown policy force people to stay at home and reduce the chance to work and consume.
The simulation trend of the model is that the economy will keep a steady increase when the serious government policy reduces the COVID-19 spreading speed rate.
nfectious Disease Model 5yr (Version2.0)
BMA708 Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie island. Ming Liu 501335
This model is upgraded on the basis of the SIR model and adds more variables.
A large number of COVID-19 cases will have a negative impact on the local economy. But if the number of cases is too small, it will have no impact on the macro economy
Government policy will help control the growth of COVID-19 cases by getting people tested.
Acomplex systems model of the relationships among different players in the town of Burnie, Tasmania - Nguyen Dang Khoa 520572
Coronavirus which was named COVID-19 is a respiratory disease which affects the lungs of the infected person and thus making such people vulnerable to other diseases such as pneumonia. It was first discovered in Wuhan China in December 2019 and since then has spread across the world affecting more than 40 million people from which over one million have died.
In the early discovery of the COVID-19, there were measures that were put in place with the help World Health Organization (WHO). They recommended a social distance of 1.5 meters to 2 meters to curb the spread since the scientist warned that COVID-19 can be carried in the droplets when someone breathes or cough. Another measure which was advised by WHO was wearing of mask, especially when people are in group. Wearing of mask would ensure that someone’s droplets do not leave their mouth or nose when they breathe or cough. It also help one from breathing in the virus which believed to be contagious and airborne.
The World Health Organization also advised on washing of the hand and avoiding frequent touching of the face. People mostly use their hand to touch surfaces which mad their hand the greatest harbor of the disease. Therefore, washing hands with soap will kill and wash away the virus from the hands. Avoiding touching of face also will prevent people from contracting the disease since the virus is believed to enter the body through openings such as eye, nose and mouth.
Another measure as a precaution from contracting the disease was to avoid hand shaking, hugging, kissing and any other thing which would bring people together. These were measures put to ensure that COVID-19 do not move from one person to another because of its airborne nature and the fact that it can be carried from the mouth or nose droplets.
Healthcare workers, in most of the countries, were provided with Personal Protective Equipment (PPEs) which helped them to protect themselves from contracting the virus. Healthcare workers were at the forefront in combating the disease since they were the people receiving the sick, including the ones with the virus. This exposed them to COVID-19 more than anyone hence more care was needed for them. Their PPEs comprised of white overall covering the whole body from head to toes. It also includes face mask and googles worn to prevent anything getting in their eyes. Their hands also were covered with gloves which were removed occasionally to avoid concentration of the virus on one glove.
COVID-19 affected many economies across the world as it greatly affected the human economic activities across the world. Due to the nature and how it spread, COVID-19 lead many countries to lockdown the country as we know it. Travelling was stopped as many countries feared the surge of the virus due to many people travelling form the countries which are already greatly affected. Another reason which travelling was hampered was due to the fact that the virus could spread among the travelers in an airplane. There were no proper measures to ensure social distance in the airplane and many people feared travelling from fear of contracting the disease.
This greatly affected the economy of many countries including great economies like USA. Tourism industry was the one affected the most as many country mostly depend on foreign travelers as their tourist. Many countries do not have proper domestic tourism structure and therefore depend on visitors who travels from foreign countries. Such countries have their economies greatly affected since the earnings from tourism either gone down or was not there at all.
Apart from locking down the country from foreigners, many major cities across the world were under lockdown. This means that even the citizens of the country were neither allowed in or out of the city. This restricted movement of people affecting greatly the human economic activities as many businesses were closed down especially transport businesses. The movement of goods from one places to another was affected making business difficult to carry out. Many people who dealt in perishable agricultural products count losses as their farm produced were destroyed because of lack of wider market. Some countries banned some businesses such as importing second hand clothes since it was believed that they could harbor the virus. Most of the meeting places such as sporting events and pubs were closed down affecting greatly the people who were involved in such businesses.
Across the world, schools were closed. Schools contain students in large numbers which could affect many students across the world. Learning was temporary stopped as different countries were finding ways of curbing the virus.
Scientist are busy like bees across the world to find the vaccine for the diseases that have ravage many countries and above all, they are trying to find the cure. Many countries have carried out their trial of vaccines with the hope to find an effective vaccine for the virus.
Meanwhile it is necessary to find ways by which the virus can be controlled so that it doesn’t spread to a point where it come out of control. Some of the measures put by the WHO has been highlighted above, but these measures need to be studied to ensure that measures which are more effective are affected at great heights. I therefore, have created a model in Insight Maker to check how these measures prove their effectiveness over time.
BMA708 Task 3 Zijing Zeng 520737
Assumptions The social distance policy can reduce 80% of infection.
Interesting InsightsThe story tell the difference when social distance applied or not
Click on View story to start simulations
Model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania (Yimeng Yao 448253)
Model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania
When reported COVID-19 cases begin to show a rapid increase, the government will initiate control policies to deal with the spread.As the number of people tested increases and measures such as isolation and medical assistance are implemented, the number of people infected will decline rapidly.Therefore, the government's policy is to reduce and eliminate sources of transmission by increasing the number of tests and initiating control measures.At the same time, it also shows the negative impact of economic growth, which according to the model will stop in the next 20 weeks.
How Burnie, Tasmania can deal with a new outbreak of COVID-19
From the simulation result we can see that with the implementation of local government policies including travel ban and social distancing, the number of infected people will decrease. The number of recovered people will increase in the first 5 weeks but then experience a decrease.
In addition, with the implementation of local government policy, the economic environment in Burnie will be relatively stable when the number of COVID-19 cases is stable.