Policy | Insight Maker

Despite a mature field of inquiry, frustrated educational policy makers face a crisis characterized by little to no clear research-based guidance and significant budget limitations -- in the face of too often marginal or unexpectedly deleterious achievement impacts. As such, education performance has been acknowledged as a complex system and a general call in the literature for causal models has been sounded. This modeling effort represents a strident first step in the development of an evidence-based causal hypothesis: an hypothesis that captures the widely acknowledged complex interactions and multitude of cited influencing factors. This non-piecemeal, causal, reflection of extant knowledge engages a neuro-cognitive definition of students. Through capture of complex dynamics, it enables comparison of different mixes of interventions to estimate net academic achievement impact for the lifetime of a single cohort of students. Results nominally capture counter-intuitive unintended consequences: consequences that too often render policy interventions effete. Results are indexed on Hattie Effect Sizes, but rely on research identified causal mechanisms for effect propagation. Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format. Relative magnitudes of impact have been roughly adjusted to Hattie Ranking Standards (calibration): a non-causal evidence source. This is a demonstration model and seeks to exemplify content that would be engaged in a full or sufficient model development effort. Budget & time constraints required significant simplifying assumptions. These assumptions mitigate both the completeness & accuracy of the outputs. Features serve to symbolize & illustrate the value and benefits of causal modeling as a performance tool.

Clone of Version 10: Hattie Calibrated Education Scenario Tool Capability Demonstration

JMantilla

The dynamics of methadone treatment for intravenous opioid users. The major flows in this study were people cycling between being on methadone and off treatment. Monograph pdf

Clone of Clone of Methadone Treatment Dynamics

Safiya Arab

Clone of Plastic Pollution Solution Revolution

Nansi Challagundla

The transitions from home to supported accommodation for people with Intellectual Disability (ID) from birth to death in order to plan future services as they survive longer.

Clone of Intellectual Disability Accommodation

Paton Rogers

Testing for MSc

Clone 26/07/16 of Plastic Pollution Solution Revolution

Pascal Dubois

3

Clone of Plastic Pollution Solution Revolution

Andy Windy

Despite a mature field of inquiry, frustrated educational policy makers face a crisis characterized by little to no clear research-based guidance and significant budget limitations -- in the face of too often marginal or unexpectedly deleterious achievement impacts. As such, education performance has been acknowledged as a complex system and a general call in the literature for causal models has been sounded. This modeling effort represents a strident first step in the development of an evidence-based causal hypothesis: an hypothesis that captures the widely acknowledged complex interactions and multitude of cited influencing factors. This non-piecemeal, causal, reflection of extant knowledge engages a neuro-cognitive definition of students. Through capture of complex dynamics, it enables comparison of different mixes of interventions to estimate net academic achievement impact for the lifetime of a single cohort of students. Results nominally capture counter-intuitive unintended consequences: consequences that too often render policy interventions effete. Results are indexed on Hattie Effect Sizes, but rely on research identified causal mechanisms for effect propagation. Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format. Relative magnitudes of impact have been roughly adjusted to Hattie Ranking Standards (calibration): a non-causal evidence source. This is a demonstration model and seeks to exemplify content that would be engaged in a full or sufficient model development effort. Budget & time constraints required significant simplifying assumptions. These assumptions mitigate both the completeness & accuracy of the outputs. Features serve to symbolize & illustrate the value and benefits of causal modeling as a performance tool.

Clone of Version 10: Hattie Calibrated Education Scenario Tool Capability Demonstration

Robert L. Brown

This version of the CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATION model has been further calibrated (additional calibration phases will occur as better standardized data becomes available). Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format. Relative magnitudes and durations of impact remain in need of further data & adjustment (calibration). In the interests of maintaining steady progress and respecting budget & time constraints, significant simplifying assumptions have been made: assumptions that mitigate both completeness & accuracy of the outputs. This model meets the criteria for a Capability demonstration model, but should not be taken as complete or realistic in terms of specific magnitudes of effect or sufficient build out of causal dynamics. Rather, the model demonstrates the interplay of a minimum set of causal forces on a net student progress construct -- as informed and extrapolated from the non-causal research literature.

Provided further interest and funding, this basic capability model may further de-abstracted and built out to: higher provenance levels -- coupled with increased factorization, rigorous causal inclusion and improved parameterization.

Clone of Version 6A: Calibrated Student-Home-Teachers-Classroom

Yolande Tra

An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) Conference version at http://bit.ly/HlxtZj and LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction to Urban Dynamics 1974 p 195.

An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/

Clone of Urban Dynamics

xzhang2000

The probability density function (PDF) of the normal distribution or Bell Curve of Normal or Gaussian Distribution is the mean or expectation of the distribution (and also its median and mode).

The parameter is its standard deviation with its variance then, A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.

However, those who enjoy upskirts are called deviants and have a variable distribution :)

A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.

If mu = 0 and sigma = 1

If the Higher Education Numbers Are Increased then the group decision making ability of society would be raised above that of a middle teenager as it is now

BUT

Governments can control children by using bad parenting techniques, pandering to the pleasure principle, so they will make higher education more and more difficult as they are doing

85% of the population has a qualification level equal or below a 12th grader, 17 year old ... the chance of finding someone with any sense is low (~1 in 6) and the outcome of them being chosen by those who are uneducated in the policies they are to decide is even more rare !!!

Experience means little if you don't have enough brain to analyse it

Democracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives. National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.

Democracy: Where a group allows the decision ability of a teenager to decide on a choice of mis-representatives who are unqualified to make judgement on social policies that affect the lives of millions.

The kind of children who would vote for King Kong who can hold a girl in one hand and swat fighter jets out of teh sky off the tallest building, doesn't have a brain cell or thought to call his own but has a nice smile and offers little girls sweets.

Clone of Clone of The probability density function (PDF) of the normal distribution or Bell Curve Gaussian Distribution by Guy Lakeman

Andang Saefullah

This insight provides another reason that should not be overlooked when arguing against torture and shows why its use to obtain information is not acceptable. To obtain information torture is quicker and more efficient than the alternative: in-depth investigation. However, the use of torture, because of its purported eficiency and fast results, will lead to reliance on it as method to obtain badly needed information. At the same time, as an additional side efffect, it will atrophy the necessary skills and lead to the reduction of the resources needed to carry out detailed and time-consuming investigations. This is why over time the use of torture will lead to an increase in its use and with it to an increase in human suffering.

Torture causes more Torture

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

WIP Summary of Science 2019 article Dryzek The crisis of democracy and the science of deliberation

Deliberation without polarization

Geoff McDonnell

Based on Navid G et al 2013 paper with draft here

Clone of International vs National Post-Graduates

Nansi Challagundla

Prey

dx/dt = αx - βxy

The prey reproduces exponentially (αx) unless subject to predation. The rate of predation is the chance (βxy) with which the predators meet and kill the prey.

Predator

dy/dt = δxy - γy

The predator population growth δxy depends on successful kills and the reproduction rate; however, delta is likely be different from beta. The loss rate, an exponential decay, of the predators {\displaystyle \displaystyle \gamma y}γy represents either natural death or emigration

Rabbits and Wolves

Saeed Langarudi

3

Despite a mature field of inquiry, frustrated educational policy makers face a crisis characterized by little to no clear research-based guidance and significant budget limitations -- in the face of too often marginal or unexpectedly deleterious achievement impacts. As such, education performance has been acknowledged as a complex system and a general call in the literature for causal models has been sounded. This modeling effort represents a strident first step in the development of an evidence-based causal hypothesis: an hypothesis that captures the widely acknowledged complex interactions and multitude of cited influencing factors. This non-piecemeal, causal, reflection of extant knowledge engages a neuro-cognitive definition of students. Through capture of complex dynamics, it enables comparison of different mixes of interventions to estimate net academic achievement impact for the lifetime of a single cohort of students. Results nominally capture counter-intuitive unintended consequences: consequences that too often render policy interventions effete. Results are indexed on Hattie Effect Sizes, but rely on research identified causal mechanisms for effect propagation. Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format. Relative magnitudes of impact have been roughly adjusted to Hattie Ranking Standards (calibration): a non-causal evidence source. This is a demonstration model and seeks to exemplify content that would be engaged in a full or sufficient model development effort. Budget & time constraints required significant simplifying assumptions. These assumptions mitigate both the completeness & accuracy of the outputs. Features serve to symbolize & illustrate the value and benefits of causal modeling as a performance tool.

Clone of Version 10: Hattie Calibrated Education Scenario Tool Capability Demonstration

JMantilla

MODERN MONETARY THEORY SHOWS HOW FULL EMPLOYMENT CAN BE ACHIEVED!

POTENTIAL GDP is a level of overall spending - by the government and the non-government sector - at which there is full employment. If the economy is not operating at its potential, then the private sector has failed to invested or spend enough to generate the necessary growth nor has income from net exports contributed enough. This only leaves the government to close the spending gap. Conceptually, a government disposing of its own freely floating currency could act using two powerful tools - spending in excess of tax revenue, and taxation - to ensure that the gap between the actual economic activity and potential GDP is quickly closed. Achieving the full employment that prevailed for 30 years between 1945 and 1975 in western economies is definitely possible!

MANAGING FULL EMPLOYMENT

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Diagrams from David Collingridge and Colin Reeve's Book Fig 1 and 2 Over-critical and Under-critical models. Challenge: combine into a single CLD.

See also cognitive dissonance IM

Science speaks to Power

Geoff McDonnell

Despite a mature field of inquiry, frustrated educational policy makers face a crisis characterized by little to no clear research-based guidance and significant budget limitations -- in the face of too often marginal or unexpectedly deleterious achievement impacts. As such, education performance has been acknowledged as a complex system and a general call in the literature for causal models has been sounded. This modeling effort represents a strident first step in the development of an evidence-based causal hypothesis: an hypothesis that captures the widely acknowledged complex interactions and multitude of cited influencing factors. This non-piecemeal, causal, reflection of extant knowledge engages a neuro-cognitive definition of students. Through capture of complex dynamics, it enables comparison of different mixes of interventions to estimate net academic achievement impact for the lifetime of a single cohort of students. Results nominally capture counter-intuitive unintended consequences: consequences that too often render policy interventions effete. Results are indexed on Hattie Effect Sizes, but rely on research identified causal mechanisms for effect propagation. Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format. Relative magnitudes of impact have been roughly adjusted to Hattie Ranking Standards (calibration): a non-causal evidence source. This is a demonstration model and seeks to exemplify content that would be engaged in a full or sufficient model development effort. Budget & time constraints required significant simplifying assumptions. These assumptions mitigate both the completeness & accuracy of the outputs. Features serve to symbolize & illustrate the value and benefits of causal modeling as a performance tool.

Version 9B: Hattie Calibrated Education Scenario Tool Capability Demonstration

Yolande Tra

21

This model blends insights from several research based sources to capture research reported elements and dynamics relating to radicalization and, conversely: legitimization & state stability.

Clone of Dynamics of Radicalization

Yolande Tra

From Jay Forrester 1988 killian lectures youtube video describing system dynamics at MIT. For Concepts See IM-185226. For more detailed biography See Jay Forrester memorial webpage For MIT HIstory see IM-184930

Clone of System Dynamics Applications

Nilo Guimaraes

Despite a mature field of inquiry, frustrated educational policy makers face a crisis characterized by little to no clear research-based guidance and significant budget limitations -- in the face of too often marginal or unexpectedly deleterious achievement impacts. As such, education performance has been acknowledged as a complex system and a general call in the literature for causal models has been sounded. This modeling effort represents a strident first step in the development of an evidence-based causal hypothesis: an hypothesis that captures the widely acknowledged complex interactions and multitude of cited influencing factors. This non-piecemeal, causal, reflection of extant knowledge engages a neuro-cognitive definition of students. Through capture of complex dynamics, it enables comparison of different mixes of interventions to estimate net academic achievement impact for the lifetime of a single cohort of students. Results nominally capture counter-intuitive unintended consequences: consequences that too often render policy interventions effete. Results are indexed on Hattie Effect Sizes, but rely on research identified causal mechanisms for effect propagation. Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format. Relative magnitudes of impact have been roughly adjusted to Hattie Ranking Standards (calibration): a non-causal evidence source. This is a demonstration model and seeks to exemplify content that would be engaged in a full or sufficient model development effort. Budget & time constraints required significant simplifying assumptions. These assumptions mitigate both the completeness & accuracy of the outputs. Features serve to symbolize & illustrate the value and benefits of causal modeling as a performance tool.

Clone-of-Version-10-Hattie Calibrated Education Scenario Tool Capability Demonstration

Hal Greenwald

WIP based on Emery Roe's 2013 book. See also Dynamics in Action IM-3239 for more on behavior and The Art of the State IM-11962 for more on Grid-Group Cultural Theory

Clone of Managing Mess

Carl Gomersall

The transitions from potential to undiagnosed and diagnosed intellectual disability of people with ID from birth to death in order to plan future services as they survive longer. See IM-3279 for updated version with different age splits

Intellectual Disability Prevalence V1

Geoff McDonnell

John Kingdon's Theory of Streams in the politics of the policy process. From the book Kingdon, John (1999) Agendas Alternatives and Public Policies. Longman New York. Click on +View Story at the bottom left.

Clone of Kingdon Theory of Streams in Policy

sergiy

Policy Models