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2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Guy Lakeman

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals

  • 1 year 10 months ago

​The probability density function (PDF) of the normal distribution or Bell Curve Gaussian Distribution by Guy Lakeman

Guy Lakeman
​The probability density function (PDF) of the normal distribution or Bell Curve of Normal or Gaussian Distribution is the mean or expectation of the distribution (and also its median and mode). 
The parameter is its standard deviation with its variance then, A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.However, those who enjoy upskirts are called deviants and have a variable distribution :) 
A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.
If mu = 0 and sigma = 1
If the Higher Education Numbers Are Increased then the group decision making ability of society would be raised above that of a middle teenager as it is nowBUT Governments can control children by using bad parenting techniques, pandering to the pleasure principle, so they will make higher education more and more difficult as they are doing

85% of the population has a qualification level equal or below a 12th grader, 17 year old ... the chance of finding someone with any sense is low (~1 in 6) and the outcome of them being chosen by those who are uneducated in the policies they are to decide is even more rare !!!
Experience means little if you don't have enough brain to analyse it
Democracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives.   National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.
Democracy:  Where a group allows the decision ability of a teenager to decide on a choice of mis-representatives who are unqualified to make judgement on social policies that affect the lives of millions.The kind of children who would vote for King Kong who can hold a girl in one hand and swat fighter jets out of teh sky off the tallest building, doesn't have a brain cell or thought to call his own but has a nice smile and offers little girls sweets.


MATHS Statistics Physics Science Ecology Climate Weather Intelligence Education Probability Density Function Normal Bell Curve Gaussian Distribution Democracy Voting Politics Policy

  • 1 year 10 months ago

The Republican Party, Neoliberalism and Climate change Denial

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann
In fairness it is not just the Republican Party that believes in Neoliberalism, but it seems to adhere to the most puritan form of it. The principal tenets of Neoliberalism, free and unfettered markets and tight fiscal control are diametrically opposed to what is needed to fight climate change and its effects. Such policies involve massive fiscal spending and government investment in new infrastructure and renewable energy.  They  also involve wide ranging regulation of the private sector,  especially restrictions on the fossil fuel industry. Accepting the reality of man-made climate change and the policies needed to counter it really amounts to admitting that Neoliberalism has failed. The CLD tries to illustrate the self-reinforcing dynamic that may have led the leaders of the Republican Party to deny climate change. Of course, there are also other factors involved, such as party loyalty, internal pressure to conform, cognitive dissonance and probably many more. Please also have a look at Insight 66858 which is related to this subject.

Politics Neoliberlaism Climate

  • 9 months 1 week ago

Climate Sector Boundary Diagram of Guy Lakeman

Guy Lakeman
​Climate Sector Boundary Diagram By Guy Lakeman Climate, Weather, Ecology, Economics, Population, Welfare, Energy, Policy, CO2, Carbon Cycle, GHG (green house gasses, combined effects)

As general population is composed of 85% with an education level of a 12 grader or less (a 17 year old), a simple block of components concerning the health of the planet needs to be broken down into simple blocks.Perhaps this picture will show the basics on which to vote for a sustained healthy futureDemocracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives.   National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.

Climate Weather Ecology Economics Population Welfare Energy Policy CO2 Carbon GHG Green House Gas

  • 1 year 10 months ago

Aquaworld Radiation Balance

Rik Blok
This simple radiation balance model shows the greenhouse effect that an atmosphere can have in warming a planet.  By trapping some of the radiation emitted by the planet the atmosphere can cause the surface to become warmer than it otherwise would be.

Climate Greenhouse Effect

  • 8 months 4 weeks ago

Project Stage 1

Science student
This simple radiation balance model shows the greenhouse effect that an atmosphere can have in warming a planet.  By trapping some of the radiation emitted by the planet the atmosphere can cause the surface to become warmer than it otherwise would be.

Climate Greenhouse Effect

  • 7 months 5 days ago

S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve by Guy Lakeman

Guy Lakeman
​S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve Showing Erlang Distribution
Generation of Bell Curve from Initial Market through Delay in Pickup of Customers
This provides the beginning of an Erlang distribution model

The Erlang distribution is a two parameter family of continuous probability distributions with support . The two parameters are:

  • a positive integer 'shape' 
  • a positive real 'rate' ; sometimes the scale , the inverse of the rate is used.

MATHS Statistics Physics Science Ecology Climate Weather Intelligence Education Probability Density Function Normal Bell Curve Gaussian Distribution Democracy Voting Politics Policy Erlang

  • 1 year 10 months ago

project stage 1

Bill shmygol
This simple radiation balance model shows the greenhouse effect that an atmosphere can have in warming a planet.  By trapping some of the radiation emitted by the planet the atmosphere can cause the surface to become warmer than it otherwise would be.

Climate Greenhouse Effect

  • 8 months 3 weeks ago

Greenhouse effect_NM

Nancy Manhas
This simple radiation balance model shows the greenhouse effect that an atmosphere can have in warming a planet.  By trapping some of the radiation emitted by the planet the atmosphere can cause the surface to become warmer than it otherwise would be.

Climate Greenhouse Effect

  • 8 months 3 weeks ago

Clone of 2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Nils Hermes

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals

  • 3 years 3 months ago

Clone of Clone of 2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Bechara Assouad

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals

  • 3 years 3 weeks ago

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