There is now substantial evidence that three unstoppable reinforcing feedback systems that can only accelerate global warming have been triggered in the Arctic. R2 illustrates a process whereby frozen methane hydrate,  which exists in enormous quantities on the seabed of the shallow Arctic Ocean shelf, is breaking up as the ocean warms. This leads to methane gas, a greenhouse gas about 20 times more powerful than C02, bubbling up to the surface. R1 shows that as the ice cover of the ocean melts and shrinks, less sunlight is reflected back into space and more is absorbed by  the ocean, warming it as a consequence. The warmer ocean water and warmer air temperature will then melt more ice, but it will also break up more methane hydrates.   R3 describes a similar process where melting permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere, making the situation even worse. These processes are multiplicative, they reinforce each other.  Below are links to three articles that provide  evidence that this is going on now. Systems thinking tells us about reinforcing feedback loops and the associated exponential growth. Taking this and the evidence provided by the articles into account the conclusion clearly points to increasing and accelerated global warming. The recent Paris agreement on global warming may have come too late!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/aug/11/science.climatechange1

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23205-major-methane-release-is-almost-inevitable/

Economic growth cannot go on forever, although politicians and most economist seem to think so. The activity involved in economic growth necessarily  generates entropy (disorder and environmental degradation). Entorpy in turn generates powerful negative feedback loops which will, as a response from nature, ensure that economic activity will eventually grind to a complete halt.  In these circumstances organised society cannot persist and will collapse. The negative feedback loops shown in this graph have already started to operate. The longer economic growth continues unabated, the more powerful these negative feedback loops will become. How long can economic growth continue before it is overwhelmed? It may not be very far in the future.

This Insight is a model of Daisyworld created by James Lovelock in 1982 to demonstrate the central idea behind the Gaia hypotheses that life and the environment may be considered two parts of a coupled system.

Socio-Ecological Model on Climate Change Impacts and its implications for the Tourism Sector

The 3-machines energy transition model is a global system dynamics model based on energy balances,  and used to explore the energy frontiers for stabilizing the Earth's climate. The model comprises a hypothetical fossil engine, a solar engine including energy storage, and a carbon scrubber. These machines interact with Earth's carbon cycle and satisfy humanity’s energy demand. A detailed description can be accessed here: https://osf.io/fcwt8/

Social movements have a major role to play in forcing politicians to act on climate change. This opinion has been clearly expressed by Pope Francis in his encyclical on climate change and, amongst others, also by Naomi Klein in her book 'This changes Everything'. The CLD suggests the need to strengthen the reinforcing loops R1 and R2 representing the activities of  environmental movements and also to disrupt the reinforcing loop R3 representing climate change  deniers. The most effective way in my opinion  to strengthen R1 and R2 is to weaken R3. This could be done by countering false arguments by pointing out on all occasions that the debate on climate change is over: climate scientists, by an overwhelming consensus, have established that anthropogenic global warming is a scientific fact. It could also be done by educating the public. The urgency of the situation suggests that the most effective way of doing this could be by closing negative feedback loops, for example, by linking extreme weather events, supported by graphic images, to global warming. Global warming can also be linked to inequality, poverty, larger forest fires,  coral reef bleaching, etc. The Pope has started the work by establishing these links in his encyclical. Of course, these are merely suggestions. Looking at the CLD carefully might well reveal other effective points of intervention

Simple modern carbon cycle model for use in virtual education modules.

Simple water cycle model created for class

Koala Population in South East QLD
Assessment 1D

This model shows the different aspects in South East QLD that affect both the growth and decline of the koala population in the region and then attempts to simulate the declining trend of the koala population with reference to these different factors. Please note: the values associated with the koala population are in no way 'real' but are a means to get my point across of the ever decreasing population.

The once thriving population of koalas on Queenslands Koala Coast has dwindled since 1996 from approximately 6000 koalas to just under 2000 koalas in 2010 according to the Queensland Government's Department of Environment and Resource Management. However these figures may be even lower than stated in the report and the Australia Koala Foundation believes that these figures have been skewed so as to not have the koala be listed as vulnerable under the federal government's Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Act.

References:
Department of Environment and Resource Management (2012). Koala Coast Report 2010. Accessed from:
http://www.ehp.qld.gov.au/wildlife/koalas/research/pdf/koala-coast-report2010.pdf


Moore, Tony (2012). Conservation Group Claims Koala Numbers Fudged. Accessed from:
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/state-election-2012/conservation-group-claims-koala-numbers-fudged-20120314-1v3am.html#ixzz2PIlI8xoe

A model of a typical Australian sheep farm, where wool is the primary product, with first-cross fat lambs a secondary product.

DRAFT conceptual model of climate change connections in Yamuna river project.

ENP-65000 assignment

A model of the potential impact on the elderly population (75+ years) from heat stress, which is increased by climate change in the UK.

Fig 3.1 from Jorgen Randers book 2052 a Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

A very simple thermodynamic model of a planet, based on first order approximations of its (black body) radiation balance.

A model of the potential impact on the elderly population (75+ years) from heat stress, which is increased by climate change in the UK.

There is now substantial evidence that three unstoppable reinforcing feedback systems that can only accelerate global warming have been triggered in the Arctic. R2 illustrates a process whereby frozen methane hydrate,  which exists in enormous quantities on the seabed of the shallow Arctic Ocean shelf, is breaking up as the ocean warms. This leads to methane gas, a greenhouse gas about 20 times more powerful than C02, bubbling up to the surface. R1 shows that as the ice cover of the ocean melts and shrinks, less sunlight is reflected back into space and more is absorbed by  the ocean, warming it as a consequence. The warmer ocean water and warmer air temperature will then melt more ice, but it will also break up more methane hydrates.   R3 describes a similar process where melting permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere, making the situation even worse. These processes are multiplicative, they reinforce each other.  Below are links to three articles that provide  evidence that this is going on now. Systems thinking tells us about reinforcing feedback loops and the associated exponential growth. Taking this and the evidence provided by the articles into account the conclusion clearly points to increasing and accelerated global warming. The recent Paris agreement on global warming may have come too late!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/aug/11/science.climatechange1

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23205-major-methane-release-is-almost-inevitable/

A very simple thermodynamic model of a planet, based on first order approximations of its (black body) radiation balance.