Climate Change Models

These models and simulations have been tagged “Climate Change”.

There is now substantial evidence that three unstoppable
reinforcing feedback systems that can only accelerate global warming have been
triggered in the Arctic. R2 illustrates a process whereby frozen methane
hydrate,  which exists in enormous quantities
on the seabed of the shallow Arctic Ocean she
There is now substantial evidence that three unstoppable reinforcing feedback systems that can only accelerate global warming have been triggered in the Arctic. R2 illustrates a process whereby frozen methane hydrate,  which exists in enormous quantities on the seabed of the shallow Arctic Ocean shelf, is breaking up as the ocean warms. This leads to methane gas, a greenhouse gas about 20 times more powerful than C02, bubbling up to the surface. R1 shows that as the ice cover of the ocean melts and shrinks, less sunlight is reflected back into space and more is absorbed by  the ocean, warming it as a consequence. The warmer ocean water and warmer air temperature will then melt more ice, but it will also break up more methane hydrates.   R3 describes a similar process where melting permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere, making the situation even worse. These processes are multiplicative, they reinforce each other.  Below are links to three articles that provide  evidence that this is going on now. Systems thinking tells us about reinforcing feedback loops and the associated exponential growth. Taking this and the evidence provided by the articles into account the conclusion clearly points to increasing and accelerated global warming. The recent Paris agreement on global warming may have come too late!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/aug/11/science.climatechange1

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23205-major-methane-release-is-almost-inevitable/

Capitalism is in crisis and climate
change disruption is now beginning to hit the bottom line. Insurance companies
know this well. According to a report by the Bank of England, insured losses
have risen from $10 000 million in 1985 to $50 000 million in 2015. Climate change
cannot be reversed, and e
Capitalism is in crisis and climate change disruption is now beginning to hit the bottom line. Insurance companies know this well. According to a report by the Bank of England, insured losses have risen from $10 000 million in 1985 to $50 000 million in 2015. Climate change cannot be reversed, and extreme weather events  will undoubtedly get worse in the future strengthening the disruptive effects shown in the CLD.  Another dynamic is that companies will continue to automate and, as The Economic Policy Institute has shown, fail to reflect  productivity gains in workers' salaries. The result, stagnating salaries is disastrous for demand, given that capitalism needs endlessly rising demand and consumption. A further serious problem is that as climate change gets worse there will be increasing demands for companies to assume their responsibility and bear the costs of negative externalities.  The CLD shows these factors which are likely to lead to the collapse of the system: when capitalism can no longer generate 'capital' it has stopped to serves any useful purpose. 

 Economic growth cannot go on forever, although politicians and most economist
seem to think so. The activity involved in economic growth necessarily  generates entropy (disorder and environmental degradation). Entorpy in turn generates powerful negative feedback loops which will, as
a response from

Economic growth cannot go on forever, although politicians and most economist seem to think so. The activity involved in economic growth necessarily  generates entropy (disorder and environmental degradation). Entorpy in turn generates powerful negative feedback loops which will, as a response from nature, ensure that economic activity will eventually grind to a complete halt.  In these circumstances organised society cannot persist and will collapse. The negative feedback loops shown in this graph have already started to operate. The longer economic growth continues unabated, the more powerful these negative feedback loops will become. How long can economic growth continue before it is overwhelmed? It may not be very far in the future.

The concept of 'CLOSING A FEEDBACK LOOP' 
means that a loop is closed to affect the person or agents that originally
are  responsible for an action so that they plainly feel its effects. This almost inevitable leads to corrective
action. One of the reasons why climate change does not  arouse passion
The concept of 'CLOSING A FEEDBACK LOOP'  means that a loop is closed to affect the person or agents that originally are  responsible for an action so that they plainly feel its effects. This almost inevitable leads to corrective action. One of the reasons why climate change does not  arouse passion and action is that it is largely invisible and most people are not aware of it, although extreme weather events are beginning to change this somewhat. The schematic representation shows how systems thinking might help to draw attention to such situations by graphically connecting the dots to promote understand and hopefully action when people realize that there is a price to be paid for inaction.  Please note, however, that the loop does not describe dynamic behaviour in the normal system dynamics sense. 

Social
movements have a major role to play in forcing politicians to act on climate
change. This opinion has been clearly expressed by Pope Francis in his encyclical
on climate change and, amongst others, also by Naomi Klein in her book 'This
changes Everything'. The CLD suggests the need to strengt
Social movements have a major role to play in forcing politicians to act on climate change. This opinion has been clearly expressed by Pope Francis in his encyclical on climate change and, amongst others, also by Naomi Klein in her book 'This changes Everything'. The CLD suggests the need to strengthen the reinforcing loops R1 and R2 representing the activities of  environmental movements and also to disrupt the reinforcing loop R3 representing climate change  deniers. The most effective way in my opinion  to strengthen R1 and R2 is to weaken R3. This could be done by countering false arguments by pointing out on all occasions that the debate on climate change is over: climate scientists, by an overwhelming consensus, have established that anthropogenic global warming is a scientific fact. It could also be done by educating the public. The urgency of the situation suggests that the most effective way of doing this could be by closing negative feedback loops, for example, by linking extreme weather events, supported by graphic images, to global warming. Global warming can also be linked to inequality, poverty, larger forest fires,  coral reef bleaching, etc. The Pope has started the work by establishing these links in his encyclical. Of course, these are merely suggestions. Looking at the CLD carefully might well reveal other effective points of intervention
This Insight is a model of Daisyworld created by James Lovelock in 1982 to demonstrate the central idea behind the Gaia hypotheses that life and the environment may be considered two parts of a coupled system.
This Insight is a model of Daisyworld created by James Lovelock in 1982 to demonstrate the central idea behind the Gaia hypotheses that life and the environment may be considered two parts of a coupled system.
 The purpose of this deer management model is to explore the capacity of wildlife management actions to help us adapt to the effects of climate change.

The purpose of this deer management model is to explore the capacity of wildlife management actions to help us adapt to the effects of climate change.

  Temperature Stress Mortality Simulator:  for the older (70+ years) population of Dorset, Bournemouth and Poole, UK, using the  UKCP09   SRES A1B Emission Scenario .
Temperature Stress Mortality Simulator: for the older (70+ years) population of Dorset, Bournemouth and Poole, UK, using the UKCP09 SRES A1B Emission Scenario.
9 months ago
Socio-Ecological Model on Climate Change Impacts and its implications for the Tourism Sector
Socio-Ecological Model on Climate Change Impacts and its implications for the Tourism Sector
Pope
Francis, in his recent encyclical on climate change, said that social movements
are critical in promoting action on global warming. This simple CLD shows how
the influence of climate-change movements could affect both public opinion and
the government. An important aspect is that the activism o
Pope Francis, in his recent encyclical on climate change, said that social movements are critical in promoting action on global warming. This simple CLD shows how the influence of climate-change movements could affect both public opinion and the government. An important aspect is that the activism of such movements will have a negative influence on the prestige of the fossil-fuel companies. This in turn will weaken their capacity to influence and to exert pressure on the government.  As the movements act, pressure on the government will increase but simultaneously the capacity of the fossil fuel industry to pressure  the government will decrease. As a result, the government will find it easier to push trough legislation to force fossil fuel companies to keep unburnable reserves in the ground. Climate change moments can contribute decisively to bring about urgently needed action on global warming
DRAFT conceptual model of climate change connections in Yamuna river project.
DRAFT conceptual model of climate change connections in Yamuna river project.
10 4 months ago
People, generally, do not seem to be conscious of, or care
about, the enormous dangers of climate change and even the possibility of a
devastating war in the Korean peninsula that could turn nuclear. They carry on
with their routine and banal conversations as if that was all that mattered. In
the 60
People, generally, do not seem to be conscious of, or care about, the enormous dangers of climate change and even the possibility of a devastating war in the Korean peninsula that could turn nuclear. They carry on with their routine and banal conversations as if that was all that mattered. In the 60s there were peace demonstration, there was more awareness and public engagement in the face of the thread of nuclear war. Could the pressures and demands of modern capitalism, now no longer tamed by a competing communist system that could potentially appear to be more attractive, be a causal factor? People caught up in the turmoil of a positive feedback loop rarely perceive reality beyond it. This simple CLD tries to illustrate the dynamic and feedback loops that could be responsible for this strange apathy and how our present day economic system could be blinding us to imminent danger.

Various factors affecting South East Queensland's koala population. 
Various factors affecting South East Queensland's koala population. 
A model of the potential impact on the elderly population (75+ years) from heat stress, which is increased by climate change in the UK.
A model of the potential impact on the elderly population (75+ years) from heat stress, which is increased by climate change in the UK.
Koala Population in South East QLD Assessment 1D  This model shows the different aspects in South East QLD that affect both the growth and decline of the koala population in the region and then attempts to simulate the declining trend of the koala population with reference to these different factors
Koala Population in South East QLD
Assessment 1D

This model shows the different aspects in South East QLD that affect both the growth and decline of the koala population in the region and then attempts to simulate the declining trend of the koala population with reference to these different factors. Please note: the values associated with the koala population are in no way 'real' but are a means to get my point across of the ever decreasing population.

The once thriving population of koalas on Queenslands Koala Coast has dwindled since 1996 from approximately 6000 koalas to just under 2000 koalas in 2010 according to the Queensland Government's Department of Environment and Resource Management. However these figures may be even lower than stated in the report and the Australia Koala Foundation believes that these figures have been skewed so as to not have the koala be listed as vulnerable under the federal government's Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Act.

References:
Department of Environment and Resource Management (2012). Koala Coast Report 2010. Accessed from:
http://www.ehp.qld.gov.au/wildlife/koalas/research/pdf/koala-coast-report2010.pdf


Moore, Tony (2012). Conservation Group Claims Koala Numbers Fudged. Accessed from:
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/state-election-2012/conservation-group-claims-koala-numbers-fudged-20120314-1v3am.html#ixzz2PIlI8xoe
Market-led Sustainability is  a 'Fix-that-Fails'. It is illustraited in this graph in a very simplified manner. Likely market-led initiatives would be: investment in renewables, electric cars and the development of long-term battery storage as a back-up means to renewable energy. However, all of the
Market-led Sustainability is  a 'Fix-that-Fails'. It is illustraited in this graph in a very simplified manner. Likely market-led initiatives would be: investment in renewables, electric cars and the development of long-term battery storage as a back-up means to renewable energy. However, all of these lead to undesirable consequences that involve environmental and economic costs that will finally make the whole enterprise fail.
This Insight is a model of Daisyworld created by James Lovelock in 1982 to demonstrate the central idea behind the Gaia hypotheses that life and the environment may be considered two parts of a coupled system.
This Insight is a model of Daisyworld created by James Lovelock in 1982 to demonstrate the central idea behind the Gaia hypotheses that life and the environment may be considered two parts of a coupled system.