On the occasion of th G20-meeting in Toronto, the German Economics minister Herr Schaüble said that without restoring confidence it would not be possible to get consumer spending and business investment going. Similar remarks were made by David Cameron and Señor Zapatero of Spain. All maintain that confidence is a pre-requisite to get growth going and that, therefore, it was imperative to reduce fiscal deficits. Reducing the fiscal deficit will restore confidence at first. However, reducing the deficit very quickly will introduce a dynamic that may cause the economy to decline - and perhaps depress consumers demand even further. It will actually destroy confidence: few businesses are inclined to invest in a shrinking economy. Cutting the deficit too rapidly or too steeply can lead to a confidence trap.
NOTE: A big experiment is now taking place in the UK - the government has cut public spending severely! Will this lead to hardship and, perhaps, social unrest?
Map of Causal Structure outlined in Thucydides History of the Peloponnesian War based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map, Matt Fisher's 2017 UC Berkeley Thesis on Tragic Science and other sources (see notes (i))
THE 2020 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION. WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.
THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED
Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a great deal of sense.
The probability density function (PDF) of the normal distribution or Bell Curve of Normal or Gaussian Distribution is the mean or expectation of the distribution (and also its median and mode).
The parameter is its standard deviation with its variance then, A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.
However, those who enjoy upskirts are called deviants and have a variable distribution :)
A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.
If mu = 0 and sigma = 1
If the Higher Education Numbers Are Increased then the group decision making ability of society would be raised above that of a middle teenager as it is now
BUT
Governments can control children by using bad parenting techniques, pandering to the pleasure principle, so they will make higher education more and more difficult as they are doing
85% of the population has a qualification level equal or below a 12th grader, 17 year old ... the chance of finding someone with any sense is low (~1 in 6) and the outcome of them being chosen by those who are uneducated in the policies they are to decide is even more rare !!!
Experience means little if you don't have enough brain to analyse it
Democracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives. National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.
Democracy: Where a group allows the decision ability of a teenager to decide on a choice of mis-representatives who are unqualified to make judgement on social policies that affect the lives of millions.
The kind of children who would vote for King Kong who can hold a girl in one hand and swat fighter jets out of teh sky off the tallest building, doesn't have a brain cell or thought to call his own but has a nice smile and offers little girls sweets.
From ODI paper . Political constraints and perverse incentives that make development plans not implementable and not implemented. See also Managing health service use IM-17566 Can you close the loops on cause and effect? Can you make it relevant to your own regional services? Could this be put into a CMO Framework IM-1713?
A restatement of the ISDC Nijmegen 2006 paperExploring the Political and Economic Dimensions of Health Policy This may benefit from simplification and using cultural theory
Based on Gunderson Holling and Light. Barriers and Bridges to the Renewal of Ecosystems and Institutions book Columbia University Press 1995. esp Fig 12.1 p499 Table 12.1 p 502 and FIg 12.4 p 521 and IM-11581 Managing mess
The two fieedback loops illustrate how the German attitude towards its EU partners has been affected by the reunification of West and East Germany that took place in October 1990. As depicted by the feedback loop 1, before the reunification Germany was anxious to maintain the good will of other partners within the European Union in order to minimize any opposition to, and to create a clilmate propitious to, a possible reunification. After the reunification, the need and driving force to make sacrifices to promote good will disappeared and a new assertive Germany emerged. This change of attitude has been reported on repeated occasions in the international press. Without doubt, this new assertive attitude will have a profound effect on the future development of the European Union.
Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a great deal of sense.
Original model done for The Perspectives Project though recast into Kumu.
From ODI paper . Political constraints and perverse incentives that make development plans not implementable and not implemented. See also Managing health service use IM-17566 Can you close the loops on cause and effect? Can you make it relevant to your own regional services? Could this be put into a CMO Framework IM-1713?
Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a great deal of sense.
Original model done for The Perspectives Project though recast into Kumu.
