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Politics

Contraflow Bus Lanes - CLD

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Contraflow bus lanes seem to produce a never ending succession of accidents involving pedestrians. An understandable reaction is that pedestrians are careless and that more visible indicators of the potential danger is an appropriate measure. This leads to the 'Symptomatic Solution' - but unfortunately accidents are not usually stopped by symptomatic solutions. Another but potentially far more costly and time-consuming approach is available: investigating a fundamental solution. Recent findings in cognitive science have shown that often repeated actions (like looking to the right when crossing the street) are phisically represented in our brains - see George Lakoff and Mark Johnson's book Philosophy in the Flesh. It seems that looking in the wrong directon is a default setting in our brain that is almost impossible to correct. The fundamental solution must deal with the implication of this and any other reasons that contribute to the accidents. In the town where I live, and surely in many other cities, contraflow bus lanes are still in operation - here, I'm sure, Systems Thinking could help and inform public policy.

Politics Traffic Accidents

  • 6 years 8 months ago

Prediction of goodness - application level 2

Michal Štěpánek
Decision comparison model

This is little bit advanced. For purposes of level 1 research model, this whole is a new decision method with new class of decision makers.
As much as I know nobody is using this method. This is not research, this is advanced application. See research fist.

Model is mostly chronological.
Links that would make the model messy are left out.

Some more notes...
GDI is good decision index in percents of "Yes, back in time, I would like the decision to win in comparison again."
GDI feedback may start right after decision, but should be editable.
Other feedback may be directed almost from any place to any other, here we got just the one qualitative loop that is of high importance for this explanation. Request for method may be resolved by many methods, GDI tells very little about it. Priorities might be different e.g. there might be not enough time for some method, there might be preference for socializing or learning, "uninportant decision do not need to be that much good", etc.

Politics

  • 2 years 5 months ago

Clone of 2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Christopher Bystroff

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals

  • 6 days 21 hours ago

Germany and the EU

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

The two fieedback loops illustrate how  the German attitude towards its EU partners has been affected by the reunification of West and East Germany that took place in October 1990. As depicted by the feedback loop 1, before the reunification Germany was anxious to maintain the good will of other partners within the European Union in order to minimize any opposition to, and to create a clilmate propitious to, a possible reunification. After the reunification, the need and driving force to make sacrifices to promote good will disappeared and a new assertive Germany emerged. This change of attitude has been reported on repeated occasions in the international press. Without doubt, this new assertive attitude will have a profound effect on the future development of the European Union.



Politics European Union

  • 6 years 8 months ago

Clone of Clone of 2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Bechara Assouad

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals

  • 4 years 9 months ago

Clone of 2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Nils Hermes

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals

  • 5 years 3 days ago

Clone of Clone of Clone of 2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

anne-marie khoury

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals

  • 4 years 8 months ago

Confidence Trap and Growth

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

On the occasion of th G20-meeting in Toronto, the German Economics minister Herr Schaüble said that without restoring confidence it would not be possible to get consumer spending and business investment going. Similar remarks were made by David Cameron and Señor Zapatero of Spain. All maintain that confidence is a pre-requisite to get growth going and that, therefore, it was imperative to reduce fiscal deficits. Reducing the fiscal deficit will restore confidence at first. However, reducing the deficit very quickly will introduce a dynamic that may cause the economy to decline - and perhaps depress  consumers demand even further.  It will actually destroy confidence: few businesses are inclined to invest in a shrinking economy. Cutting the deficit too rapidly or too steeply can lead to a confidence trap.

NOTE: A big experiment is now taking place in the UK - the government has cut public spending severely! Will this lead to hardship and, perhaps, social unrest? 

Politics Economics Aggregate Demand

  • 4 years 8 months ago

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