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Epidemic

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

Guy Lakeman

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

Health Care Infection Ebola Epidemic SARS MERS COVID

  • 7 months 1 week ago

SIRD Epidemic Model with Suppression Policies

Bob Hawkins
This is the third in a series of models that explore the dynamics of infectious diseases. This model looks at the impact of two types of suppression policies. 
Press the simulate button to run the model with no policy.  Then explore what happens when you set up a lockdown and quarantining policy by changing the settings below.  First explore changing the start date with a policy duration of 60 days.

Epidemic COVID-19 SIR

  • 4 months 3 weeks ago

Scratchpad of Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

Guy Lakeman

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

updated 16/3/2020 from 5 years ago

Health Care Infection Ebola Epidemic SARS MERS COVID Pandemic

  • 7 months 5 days ago

Future Learn Basic SIR Model

Bob Hawkins
This is the first in a series of models that explore the dynamics of and policy impacts on infectious diseases. This basic  model divides the population into three categories -- Susceptible (S), Infectious (I) and Recovered (R).  
Press the simulate button to run the model and see what happens at different values of the Reproduction Number (R0).
The second model that includes a simple test and isolate policy can be found here.

Epidemic COVID-19 SIR

  • 4 months 5 days ago

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