These models and simulations have been tagged “Climate Change”.
Economic growth cannot go on forever, although politicians and most economist
seem to think so. The activity involved in economic growth necessarily generates entropy (disorder and environmental degradation). Entorpy in turn generates powerful negative feedback loops which will, as
a response from nature, ensure that economic activity will eventually grind to
a complete halt. In these circumstances organised
society cannot persist and will collapse. The negative
feedback loops shown in this graph have already started to operate. The longer economic growth continues unabated, the more powerful these negative feedback loops will become. How long
can economic growth continue before it is overwhelmed? It may not be very far in the future.
The purpose of this deer management model is to explore the capacity of wildlife management actions to help us adapt to the effects of climate change.
Americans believed that extreme weather events, droughts and wildfires are
primarily caused by climate change they would soon react and demand immediate action
from their political leaders. It is likely that this will happen fairly soon
because of the dynamic hidden in the phrase 'Climate Change'. Wolfgang von Goethe
the famous German poet and scientist said ''we only see what we know". Cognitive
psychology largely agrees and says that we only understand what we see - and
give importance to it - if we have a
schema (mental model) for what we are
looking at. As the terms 'Climate Change'
become more widely used people will try to understand what they mean and start
to construct schemas. As a result of this process they will soon see extreme weather events and wild fire in a
different light as the occur again and again - after all, climate scientists
told us that their numbers and severity
would increase as a result of climate
change. This simple CLD tries to illustrate this dynamic. It suggests that if
you want to speed up this process, a good strategy would be to point out at
every occasion possible that an increase of extreme weather events and droughts
is precisely what climate scientists predicted!
that we all strive to reduce psychologically inconsistent thoughts is a well-researched phenomenon. When we hold
two conflicting thoughts in our heads we feel an overwhelming desire to reduce
this conflict. This desire can be a powerful driver in the way we behave. Most
of us are aware at some level that if we took the threat of climate change
seriously we would need to completely change our routines and the way we behave.
Flying off on holiday would be out of the question. Swimming pools would be a
past luxury. Most of us would need to give up our cars and become vegetarians.
The list can be extended almost endlessly. Very often, subconsciously, we try
to reduce troubling and inconvenient facts by minimizing, ignoring or even by denying
them. Could this be why we hardly talk about climate change even in the face of
increasingly frequent extreme weather events and obvious signs that it is
needs to be openly talked about between us and in the press. The seriousness of global warming makes it a necessity.
Only when this happens will politicians have the space and incentive to
act on our behalf. But before this can happen we need to be aware of the reason
why we avoid talking about this subject – this graph tries to illustrate the
harmful dynamic that could be responsible for it.