Introduction:This model demonstrates the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. It shows how the government policy tries to reduce the spread of COVID-19 whilst also impacting the local economy.
Assumptions:
This model has four variables that influence the number of COVID-19 cases: infection rate, immunity loss rate, recovery rate and death rate.
In order to reduce the pandemic spread, in this model, assume the government released six policies when Burnie COVID-19 cases are equal or over 10 cases. Policies are vaccination promotion, travel restriction to Burnie, quarantine, social distance, lockdown and testing rate.
Government policies would reduce the pandemic. However, it decreases economic growth at the same time. In this model, only list three variable that influence local economic activities.
Travel restrictions and quarantine will reduce Burnie tourism and decrease the local economy. On the other hand, quarantine, social distance, lockdown allow people to stay at home, increasing E-commerce business.
As a result, policies that cause fewer COVID-19 cases also cause more considerable negative damage to the economy.
Interesting insights:
One of the interesting findings is that the government policy would reduce the COVID-19 spread significantly if I adjust the total government policies are over 20% (vaccine promotion, travel restriction, quarantine, social distance, lockdown), 3560 people will die, then no more people get COVID-19.
However, if I change the total government policy to less than 5%, the whole Burnie people will die according to the model. Therefore, we need to follow the polices, which saves our lives.
![Initial data from: Italian data [ link ], as of Mar 28 Incubation estimation [ link ] Model focuses on outbreak dynamics and control, this version ignores symptom onset to hospital admission and the rest of recovery dynamics.](https://insightmakercloud-files.storage.googleapis.com/a945023c-0f59-409e-b0a3-460d30361ee8/images/cover.jpg?X-Goog-Algorithm=GOOG4-RSA-SHA256&X-Goog-Credential=insightmakercloud-file-access%40insightmakercloud.iam.gserviceaccount.com%2F20251201%2Fauto%2Fstorage%2Fgoog4_request&X-Goog-Date=20251201T080912Z&X-Goog-Expires=3600&X-Goog-SignedHeaders=host&X-Goog-Signature=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)
