SARS-CoV-19 spread in different countries

If no attempt is made to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 it will eventually become endemic, ineradicable, at a high never-ending cost to world in terms of economic growth, human health and lives. The current strategy adopted by most governments is to impose  restrictive measures when the virus threatens to overwhelm hospital services and to relax these restrictions as this danger recedes. This is short-sighted. It cannot eliminate the highly infectious delta variant, which has an estimated R0-value of between 6 & 9. Periodic lockdowns will be hard to avoid in the future.

However, eradication is possible, herd immunity can be achieved quickly worldwide, reducing the R0 permanently to below 1, which will lead to the disappearance of the virus. Critical in achieving this is Ivermectin, a medicine that is cheap,  readily available and can be manufactured by most countries. A recent meta study has shown that Ivermectin, prophylactically employed, can prevent infection with the virus  by 86 % on average – very similar to the efficacy of vaccines. Eradication will require employment of all the instruments shown in the graph: future generations do not have to live with this plague. 

The SEIRS(D) model for the purpose of experimenting with the phenomena of viral spread. I use it for COVID-19 simulation.

Andy Long

A simple ABM example illustrating how the SEIR model works. It can be a basis for experimenting with learning the impact of human behavior on the spread of a virus, e.g. COVID-19.

Overview:

Overall, this analysis showed a COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, the government policies to curtail that, and some of the impacts it is having on the Burnie economy.

Variables

The simulation made use of the variables such as; Covid-19: (1): Infection rate. (2): Recovery rate. (3): Death rate. (4): Immunity loss rate etc. 

Assumptions:

From the model, it is apparent that government health policies directly affect the economic output of Burnie. A better health policy has proven to have a better economic condition for Burnie and verse versa.

In the COVID-19 model, some variables are set at fixed rates, including the immunity loss rate, recovery rate, death rate, infection rate, and case impact rate, as this is normally influenced by the individual health conditions and social activities.

Moving forward, we decided to set the recovery rate to 0.7, which is a rate above the immunity loss rate of 0.5, so, the number of susceptible could be diminished over time.

Step 1: Try to set all value variables at their lowest point and then stimulate. 

 

Outcome: the number of those Infected are– 135; Recovered – 218; Cases – 597; Death – 18,175; GDP – 10,879.

Step 2: Try to increase the variables of Health Policy, Quarantine, and Travel Restriction to 0.03, others keep the same as step 1, and simulate

Outcome: The number of those Infected – 166 (up); Recovered – 249 (up); Cases – 554 (down); Death – 18,077 (down); GDP – 824 (down).

With this analysis, it is obvious that the increase of health policy, quarantine, and travel restriction will assist in increase recovery rate, a decrease in confirmed cases, a reduction in death cases or fatality rate, but a decrease in Burnie GDP.

Step 3: Enlarge the Testing Rate to 0.4, variable, others, maintain the same as step 2, and simulate

Outcome: It can be seen that the number of Infected is down to – 152; those recovered down to – 243; overall cases up to – 1022; those that died down to–17,625; while the GDP remains – 824.

In this step, it is apparent that the increase of testing rate will assist to increase the confirmed cases.

Step 4: Try to change the GDP Growth Rate to 0.14, then Tourism Growth Rate to 0.02, others keep the same as step 3, and then simulate the model

Outcome: what happens is that the Infected number – 152 remains the same; Recovered rate– 243 the same; Number of Cases – 1022 (same); Death – 17,625 (same); but the GDP goes up to– 6,632. 

This final step made it obvious that the increase of GDP growth rate and tourism growth rate will help to improve the overall GDP performance of Burnie's economy.

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19

Coronavirus which was named COVID-19 is a respiratory disease which affects the lungs of the infected person and thus making such people vulnerable to other diseases such as pneumonia. It was first discovered in Wuhan China in December 2019 and since then has spread across the world affecting more than 40 million people from which over one million have died.

In the early discovery of the COVID-19, there were measures that were put in place with the help World Health Organization (WHO). They recommended a social distance of 1.5 meters to 2 meters to curb the spread since the scientist warned that COVID-19 can be carried in the droplets when someone breathes or cough. Another measure which was advised by WHO was wearing of mask, especially when people are in group. Wearing of mask would ensure that someone’s droplets do not leave their mouth or nose when they breathe or cough. It also help one from breathing in the virus which believed to be contagious and airborne.

The World Health Organization also advised on washing of the hand and avoiding frequent touching of the face. People mostly use their hand to touch surfaces which mad their hand the greatest harbor of the disease. Therefore, washing hands with soap will kill and wash away the virus from the hands. Avoiding touching of face also will prevent people from contracting the disease since the virus is believed to enter the body through openings such as eye, nose and mouth.

Another measure as a precaution from contracting the disease was to avoid hand shaking, hugging, kissing and any other thing which would bring people together. These were measures put to ensure that COVID-19 do not move from one person to another because of its airborne nature and the fact that it can be carried from the mouth or nose droplets.

Healthcare workers, in most of the countries, were provided with Personal Protective Equipment (PPEs) which helped them to protect themselves from contracting the virus. Healthcare workers were at the forefront in combating the disease since they were the people receiving the sick, including the ones with the virus. This exposed them to COVID-19 more than anyone hence more care was needed for them. Their PPEs comprised of white overall covering the whole body from head to toes. It also includes face mask and googles worn to prevent anything getting in their eyes. Their hands also were covered with gloves which were removed occasionally to avoid concentration of the virus on one glove.

COVID-19 affected many economies across the world as it greatly affected the human economic activities across the world. Due to the nature and how it spread, COVID-19 lead many countries to lockdown the country as we know it. Travelling was stopped as many countries feared the surge of the virus due to many people travelling form the countries which are already greatly affected. Another reason which travelling was hampered was due to the fact that the virus could spread among the travelers in an airplane. There were no proper measures to ensure social distance in the airplane and many people feared travelling from fear of contracting the disease.

This greatly affected the economy of many countries including great economies like USA. Tourism industry was the one affected the most as many country mostly depend on foreign travelers as their tourist. Many countries do not have proper domestic tourism structure and therefore depend on visitors who travels from foreign countries. Such countries have their economies greatly affected since the earnings from tourism either gone down or was not there at all.

Apart from locking down the country from foreigners, many major cities across the world were under lockdown. This means that even the citizens of the country were neither allowed in or out of the city. This restricted movement of people affecting greatly the human economic activities as many businesses were closed down especially transport businesses. The movement of goods from one places to another was affected making business difficult to carry out. Many people who dealt in perishable agricultural products count losses as their farm produced were destroyed because of lack of wider market. Some countries banned some businesses such as importing second hand clothes since it was believed that they could harbor the virus. Most of the meeting places such as sporting events and pubs were closed down affecting greatly the people who were involved in such businesses.

Across the world, schools were closed. Schools contain students in large numbers which could affect many students across the world. Learning was temporary stopped as different countries were finding ways of curbing the virus.

Scientist are busy like bees across the world to find the vaccine for the diseases that have ravage many countries and above all, they are trying to find the cure. Many countries have carried out their trial of vaccines with the hope to find an effective vaccine for the virus.

Meanwhile it is necessary to find ways by which the virus can be controlled so that it doesn’t spread to a point where it come out of control. Some of the measures put by the WHO has been highlighted above, but these measures need to be studied to ensure that measures which are more effective are affected at great heights. I therefore, have created a model in Insight Maker to check how these measures prove their effectiveness over time.

Check how different times of recovery and deths in cases of covid-19 infulence 2 key mortality indicators:

Model di samping adalah model SEIR yang telah dimodifikasi sehingga dapat digunakan untuk menyimulasikan perkembangan penyebaran COVID-19.

A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an already very weak  and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture.  As events unfold in the next few months,  we may discover that it is too late to act,  that our reign on this planet has, indeed,  come to an abrupt end?  

This basic pandemic model explores the dynamics and healthcare burden associated with of a novel infection.