SUST1001U Models

These models and simulations have been tagged “SUST1001U”.

Insight diagram
The dynamics of a moose population with density-dependent birth rate...the birth rate equals the death rate when the population is at carrying capacity; the birth rate is greater than the death rate when the population is below carrying capacity; the birth rate is below the death rate when the population is above carrying capacity.
Clone of Logistic Moose Population Dynamics
Insight diagram
The dynamics of household water management with constant water supply and usage rates.


This model simulates the management of water in a household. The “Water Reservoir” stock represents the total amount of water available. The “Water Supply” inflow adds water to the reservoir based on the “Supply Rate.” The “Water Usage” outflow removes water from the reservoir based on the “Usage Rate.” By adjusting the “Supply Rate” and “Usage Rate,” users can see how conservation efforts impact water availability over time.
Clone of Water Usage and Conservation in a Household
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The dynamics of homeless population in Toronto with constant homelessness and rehabilitation rates
Exponential Toronto Homeless Population Dynamics
Insight diagram
The dynamics of the human population in Oshawa with density-dependent birth rate...the birth rate equals the death rate when the population is at carrying capacity; the birth rate is greater than the death rate when the population is below carrying capacity; the birth rate is below the death rate when the population is above carrying capacity.
Values are in thousands
Logistic Model of Oshawa Population Dynamics
Insight diagram
This model graphs the general idea of the inflow and outflow of energy in a small town in Ontario's power grid. The main sources of energy come from Nuclear being one of Ontario's biggest sources of energy, Wind, and Solar. The graph shows energy generation vs energy consumption and the demand in energy in the town.
Roman's Town, Ontario Energy Consumption
Insight diagram
The dynamics of a moose population with density-dependent birth rate...the birth rate equals the death rate when the population is at carrying capacity; the birth rate is greater than the death rate when the population is below carrying capacity; the birth rate is below the death rate when the population is above carrying capacity.
Clone of Logistic Moose Population Dynamics
Insight diagram
This model simulates human population growth on both a global scale and a local scale for Ajax, Ontario. The global population starts at 8 billion and Ajax starts at 121,780 Carrying capacities are set to 12 billion for Earth and 150,000 for Ajax. The model demonstrates the growth, showing how populations grow and stabilize as they approach their environmental limits.
Model2 - Modeling a Human Population For Toronto Ontario
Insight diagram
This is the Logistics model for the country Nigeria over 25 years. Using a density-dependent rate,
At carrying capacity: Birth rate = Death rate. This is why at this point the population at reached a constant (a plateau) because the two rates equate themselves.
Below carrying capacity:Birth rate > death rate. There are enough resources for so the population so max birth rate is reached and more people are being birthed or are migrating into the country
Above carrying capacity: The birth rate < death rate. Nigeria's ecosystem have depleted and not enough to support its population so max death rate is reached.
Using this model, we see how population replenished per person (Population per capita) decreases as the population nears carrying capacity.
 
Clone of Logistic Moose Population Dynamics
Insight diagram
This is a model demonstrating the scale of growth for the town of Newmarket, located in Canada Ontario, roughly 60km north of Toronto. The total population capacity for Newmarket was based off of York Region Figures of 118,500 people in the year 2051, and the current population was based off a current rough number of around 97,000 people.

This model calculates 2 things, firstly, it calculates the main population growth just by births alone. It does this by taking the average population growth rate in Newmarket which is roughly 1.13%, and the average death rate which is roughly 0.78%. 

Secondly, Newmarket gets a large portion of its growth by migration. Because migration percentages are hard to calculate, and are very rough, we must find the minimum potential growth rate for Newmarket every year. Based on the available historical data, I have chosen 0.3% total migration growth rate.

After simulating this graph, it will show 2 bars. 1 bar will show the growth without immigration, and the other will show the total growth of Newmarket's population taking into account the potential migration of people.
Model of the Human Population in Newmarket Ontario
2 months ago
Insight diagram
Modeling the growth in the number of whales
Insight diagram
The dynamics of population growth and decline are influenced by a balance between birth rates and death rates, which are affected by various social, economic, and environmental factors. One key concept in population dynamics is the idea of carrying capacity, which refers to the maximum population size that an environment can sustain indefinitely given the available resources like food, water, shelter, and medical care.

When a human population is at or near its carrying capacity, the birth rate equals the death rate. In this state, the population size remains stable because the number of individuals being born roughly matches the number of individuals dying. This equilibrium prevents the population from growing any further, as the available resources are just sufficient to maintain the current population size.

If the human population is below the carrying capacity, the birth rate tends to be greater than the death rate. This is often because there are more abundant resources per person, leading to better health, improved access to necessities, and increased life expectancy. In such conditions, population growth can occur, as more people are being born than are dying, pushing the population size upwards. 

Conversely, when the human population is above the carrying capacity, the death rate surpasses the birth rate. This can happen when resources become scarce, leading to issues such as malnutrition, lack of access to clean water or healthcare, and increased disease prevalence. As a result, the population may decrease until it returns to a level that can be sustained by the available resources.
Logistic Human Population Dynamics of New York City
Insight diagram
This complex system models an organic strawberry farm in Northumberland County, ON. The model aims to highlight the various factors that influence revenue and expenses of the farm, and overall can predict the cumulative net income over a 25 year period. 

Beginning with a $100,000 inheritance that is input into the organic farm, one can estimate the cumulative farm net income (the stock) both annually and over a prolonged period based on the various expenses (outflow) which must be paid per year, and the sources of revenue (inflow) within the same time period.

Note: The values and variables used in this model were based on the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources Guide, or the Sample Costs to Produce and Harvest Organic Strawberries Guide for the year 2024. 
Organic Strawberry Farm in Northumberland County, ON
Insight diagram
The dynamics of Oshawa’s population are modeled with a carrying capacity, where population growth is influenced by density-dependent factors. At lower population sizes, the birth rate exceeds the death rate, with a maximum birth rate and a maximum death rate. As the population increases and approaches the carrying capacity, resource limitations cause the birth rate and death rate to equalize. If the population exceeds the carrying capacity, the death rate will surpass the birth rate, gradually reducing population size, stabilizing near equilibrium.
Logistic Oshawa Population Dynamics
Insight diagram
This model displays how the population of the Earth changes. With a larger birth rate than death rate the population increases and heads towards K (carrying capacity). If the birth rate is lower than the death rate, the population will slowly diminish and will move away from carrying capacity.
Globe Population Dynamics
Insight diagram
This model simulates the financial dynamics of an organic strawberry farm, illustrating how different variables impact the cumulative net income. Key inputs include the strawberry yield, sale price, worker hours, machine costs, and organic pesticide costs, all of which influence either the farm's revenue or expenses. The model allows adjustments to these variables, showing how factors like production levels, labor costs, and initial capital affect overall profitability. By visualizing these relationships, the model helps in exploring strategies to optimize income while managing costs effectively.
Ayman's Organic Farm
Insight diagram
This model demonstrates the tradeoff between the resource costs of deploying AI systems—specifically electricity and water consumption—and the benefits gained from increased efficiency and effectiveness. It simulates how the deployment of AI systems grows over time and quantifies both the cumulative costs and the cumulative efficiency gains.
The following link will show how I created the model using AI:
https://chatgpt.com/share/671ff44a-912c-8008-b1ef-6535fe0ae0b1
Using AI to model AI
Insight diagram
The following model shows us the fictional city in Ontario a municipality called Omnicity with fictional energy values and the relationship between all the energy types used within the city, how it affects the energy grid, with the inflows from the various types of energy the city produces. The power usage coming from Businesses and Residential, whilst the energy produced comes from Wind, Solar, Hydro, Nuclear, Natural Gas, and Micro-generated Solar Electricity from residential housing.
Omnicity Energy Flow Grid Insight
Insight diagram
The dynamics of a moose population with density-dependent birth rate...the birth rate equals the death rate when the population is at carrying capacity; the birth rate is greater than the death rate when the population is below carrying capacity; the birth rate is below the death rate when the population is above carrying capacity.
Clone of Logistic Moose Population Dynamics
Insight diagram
This model simulates a 100 acre organic strawberry farm. The net income of this farm is determined through several factors such as its yield and sales and its harvesting and packaging and labour as well. Adjusting the value of acres can increase farm size and see cost differences and net income differences.
Organic Strawberry Farm
Insight diagram

This model explores the relationship between AI resource investment and the resulting gains in efficiency and effectiveness. The purpose is to illustrate how allocating resources to AI can drive improvements in performance but may also reach a point of diminishing returns.
The model helps users understand how different investment rates impact AI-driven improvements in efficiency and effectiveness.

By adjusting the Investment Rate and observing changes in Efficiency Benefit and Effectiveness Benefit, users can gain insight into the tradeoffs of AI investment, observing points where added investment yields smaller returns. This visualization is valuable for decision-makers seeking to optimize resource allocation for maximum performance.


AI Investment Efficiency Tradeoff Model
Insight diagram

This complex system models the dynamics and impacts of transportation efficacy and efficiency of sustainable urban transportation in Durham Region. Within the Regional Municipality of Durham, there are eight local Municipalities consisting of Ajax, Brock, Clarington, Oshawa, Pickering, Scugog, Uxbridge, and Whitby, which account for a total population of approximately 750,000 individuals as of 2023. As Durham Region continues to expand and increase in population, road structures will be faced with an increasing traffic load that will generate a significant amount of carbon emissions. Due to the prevailing climate concerns, the need for sustainable urban transportation is evident.

Urban transportation systems are a cornerstone of city life. They connect communities and businesses, while providing access to services, supporting economic and social activities. Maintaining a vast network of transportation systems as cities grow, becomes increasingly challenging. These challenges, consisting of traffic congestion, environmental impact, and diverse transportation needs, become of paramount concern, such that political campaigns run solely on these platforms.

Within this stock and flow model are the main variables that comprise transportation emissions within Durham Region. The urban transportation model highlights different modes of transportation in the form of stocks, which consist of public transit users (bus), fossil fuel car drivers, and EV car drivers, as well as the inflows and outflows that are influenced by various variables. 

All data used within this model was obtained from the various sources on the internet. The data used within the model is based off of estimate values. Data pertaining to population values and cities/towns that comprise Durham Region, ON obtained from the following source(s): 



Regional Municipality of Durham. (n.d.). Demographics and statistics. Durham Region Economic Development and Tourism. Retrieved November 24, 2024, from https://www.durham.ca/en/economic-development/invest-and-grow/demographics-and-statistics.aspx

Regional Municipality of Durham. (n.d.). Local municipalities. Durham Region. Retrieved from https://www.durham.ca/en/regional-government/local-municipalities.aspx

Group 8 Members: Leda Alizada (100821720), Pritika Lally (100867821), Mahad Rashid (100779108), Rileigh Rodych (100515185), Sami Siddique (100460897)

Clone of EcoTransit Durham - Modeling Urban Transportation in Durham Region
Insight diagram
The dynamics of a moose population with constant birth and death rates.
And the moose go into rut, and then calves are born....

Bailey, R.C. 1982. The moose that I have known. Can.J.Zool. 67:101-112.

Clone of Moose Population Exponential Growth
Insight diagram
The dynamics of moose (prey) and wolf (predator) populations
Clone of Moose (Prey) and Wolf (Predator) Population Dynamics
2 months ago
Insight diagram
This model shows how the population of Ajax, Ontario could change from 2026 to 2051. It starts with Ajax’s projected population of 140,960 people in 2026. The model looks at four main factors that can change the population: births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. Births and immigration add people to the population, while deaths and emigration decrease it. The rates in this model stay the same throughout the simulation and are based on general population data from Ontario. Since population can be affected by many different factors, this model is meant to give a simple estimate of how Ajax’s population could change over time.

Regional Municipality of Durham. (n.d.). Durham Region growth management: Growth allocations and land needs assessment. https://www.durham.ca/GrowthAllocationsReport

Ontario Ministry of Finance. (2026). Ontario population projections, 2025–2051. Government of Ontario. https://www.ontario.ca/page/ontario-population-projections


Human Population Size in Ajax, Ontario (2026–2051)
2 months ago