SUST1001U Models

These models and simulations have been tagged “SUST1001U”.

Insight diagram
This model represents the dynamics of the human population in the Durham region in Ontario. The population changes through four main processes births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. Births and immigration increase the population and deaths and emigration decrease the population. This model uses every variable to calculate how the population changes over time.
Human Population Dynamics in the Durham Region
last month
Insight diagram
The dynamics of a moose population with density-dependent birth rate...the birth rate equals the death rate when the population is at carrying capacity; the birth rate is greater than the death rate when the population is below carrying capacity; the birth rate is below the death rate when the population is above carrying capacity.
Clone of Logistic Moose Population Dynamics Deterministic w Delay
last month
Insight diagram
This model simulates the future trajectory of the global human population using a delayed logistic growth framework. Unlike simple exponential growth, this model assumes that Earth has a finite carrying capacity (K) limited by resources, space, and environmental constraints. It incorporates a generation-time delay to represent the lag between an increase in population density and its feedback effects on birth and death rates (e.g., resource depletion, urbanization, and social changes). The model demonstrates how a delay in density-dependent feedback can cause the human population to overshoot the carrying capacity before stabilizing or oscillating.
Global Human Population Dynamics: Delayed Logistic Growth Model
Insight diagram
The dynamics of a human population with density-dependent birth rate...the birth rate equals the death rate when the population is at carrying capacity; the birth rate is greater than the death rate when the population is below carrying capacity; the birth rate is below the death rate when the population is above carrying capacity.
Keiran's Logistic Human Population Dynamics Deterministic w Delay
last month
Insight diagram
This model simulates the population of the City of Toronto using a logistic (density-dependent) structure with three flows: births, deaths, and net migration. Births and deaths use roughly balanced constant per-capita rates, because Toronto's population is relatively young, a fact that continual immigration helps sustain. Net migration is the dominant driver of the city's real-world growth, and it's modeled as density-dependent: as the population approaches an estimated housing/land-constrained carrying capacity, net in-migration tapers toward zero, so growth slows and the population levels off rather than growing without bound.
Toronto Population Growth: A Logistic Model Driven by Migration
last month
Insight diagram
In this model I will be showcasing the human population in ajax for the next 100 years. The current population will be set to 127k and the max capacity will be 180k. You can simulate this model and see how the population will grow over 100 years.
Logistic Population in Ajax for the next 100 years
Insight diagram
This deterministic model explores how Durham Region's human population could change over 100 years from an illustrative baseline of 800,000 residents. Population is the stock, measured in people. Births and Inmigration add people; Deaths and Outmigration remove people. All four flows are measured in people per year. As the population grows, pressure on housing and services reduces inmigration. A two-year response delay represents the time between changing conditions and decisions to move. This creates a balancing feedback that gradually slows growth.

Assumptions: birth rate = 0.010/year, death rate = 0.008/year, outmigration rate = 0.005/year, maximum potential inmigration = 40,000 people/year, and hypothetical housing/service capacity = 2,000,000 people. Actual inmigration is the maximum inflow multiplied by the available capacity fraction, bounded below by zero. Capacity influences migration; it is not a fixed biological ceiling.

At year 0, births = 8,000, deaths = 6,400, inmigration = 24,000 and outmigration = 4,000 people/year. Net growth is therefore 21,600 people/year (2.7%). The stock accumulates births + inmigration - deaths - outmigration.

Click Simulate to view population, annual flows and a numerical table. Select a component to read its equation, units and explanation. Sliders allow experiments with migration, demographic rates, capacity and delay. Time is in years from the baseline; the numerical time step is 0.25 years.

The starting population is rounded as suggested in the assignment. All other inputs are illustrative assumptions, so this is a scenario model rather than an official forecast. It omits age structure, changing policies, new housing construction and random shocks. Adapted from Bob Bailey's logistic moose example, with separate human demographic flows and delayed migration feedback.
Durham Region Human Population: Births, Deaths and Delayed Migration
Insight diagram
A modified version of the original by Robert Bailey
https://insightmaker.com/insight/2Xt45WjJ9V3LxWtv5RAAWh/Logistic-Moose-Population-Dynamics-Deterministic-w-Delay

Where it models the birth rate and death rate of people rather than mooses. The values have been set to approximate the value inside of the Durham Region expanded to the entire world
Logistic Population Dynamics Deterministic w Delay
last month
Insight diagram
This model simulates long term human population growth in Durham Region, Ontario. It begins with a population of 800,000 people and uses birth and death rates to calculate population change. Population growth is dependent on density, meaning that growth gradually slows as the population approaches an assumed carrying capacity of 1.2 million people. A five year delay is included to represent the time required for population pressures, such as housing availability, infrastructure capacity and resource limitations, to influence population growth. The model is a simplified representation intended to demonstrate logistic human population dynamics rather than provide an exact population forecast.
Durham region human population growth: Logistic model with delayed density effects
last month
Insight diagram
The dynamics of a moose population with density-dependent birth rate...the birth rate equals the death rate when the population is at carrying capacity; the birth rate is greater than the death rate when the population is below carrying capacity; the birth rate is below the death rate when the population is above carrying capacity.
Clone of Clone of Logistic Moose Population Dynamics Deterministic w Delay
Insight diagram
This insight model helps stimulate the change in Oshawa's population level.Using variables such as births, deaths, immigration, and emigration to help determine.Births and immigration are measured as a inflow, while deaths and emigration are outflows measured in people per year.Also is a carrying capacity of a city, which we found a rough estimate online of roughly 275,000 
Logistic Human Population Growth in Oshawa
Insight diagram
This model simulates the human population of Oshawa using stock and flow structure. The population stock is connected to 3 stocks that describe the human capacity of Oshawa, birth rate of Oshawa and the death rate of Oshawa. The population stock is drive 4 flows, one going in which is the immigration rate and the amount of babies birth and going out is the emigration rate and the amount of people die. This model begins with the amount of 221000 people living in Oshawa and can be used to explore how changes to birth, death, immigration and emigration rate can change the future population of Oshawa over time
Oshawa Human Population
last month
Insight diagram
This model represents the dynamics of the human population in Ajax, Ontario, using logistic population growth. The population changes based on birth rate, death rate, carrying capacity, and density dependent effects. When the population is below carrying capacity, the population can continue to grow. As the population approaches carrying capacity, factors such as limited housing, land, infrastructure, and resources can slow population growth. The model also includes a delay to represent the time it can take for the effects of population density to influence population growth. The stock in this model is the Ajax population, which represents the total number of people, while the flow represents the change in Ajax's population over time. 
Human Population Dynamics in Ajax, Ontario
last month
Insight diagram
The dynamics of a moose population with density-dependent birth rate...the birth rate equals the death rate when the population is at carrying capacity; the birth rate is greater than the death rate when the population is below carrying capacity; the birth rate is below the death rate when the population is above carrying capacity.
Clone of Logistic Moose Population Dynamics Deterministic w Delay
last month
Insight diagram
Toronto’s human population over time, based on population density. The population growth of Toronto is influenced by births and immigration and deaths and emigration. When Toronto’s population is below its carrying capacity, births and immigration are greater than deaths and emigration, therefore the population is increasing. As the population approaches carrying capacity, the growth rate slows and the population begins to level off. If the population exceeds carrying capacity, deaths and emigration can become greater than births and immigration, causing the population to decrease.
Population Dynamics of Toronto, Ontario with Delay
Insight diagram
The dynamics of a moose population with density-dependent birth rate...the birth rate equals the death rate when the population is at carrying capacity; the birth rate is greater than the death rate when the population is below carrying capacity; the birth rate is below the death rate when the population is above carrying capacity.
Clone of Logistic Moose Population Dynamics Deterministic w Delay
last month
Insight diagram
This model shows how the population of Durham Region changes over time using a logistic growth model. The Durham Region Population is the main stock and represents the number of people living in the region. The Change in Durham Population is the flow that represents the yearly increase or decrease in the population. The model uses a Human Maximum Birth Rate and Human Minimum Death Rate to determine population growth. The Durham Carrying Capacity represents the population level that the region could reasonably approach as growth slows. The model also includes a delay in the effects of population density, which represents the idea that changes in population density may take time to affect population growth. The starting population is approximately 800,000 people, and the values used in the model are approximate and intended to demonstrate population dynamics rather than make an exact prediction.
Human Population Growth in Durham Region: A Logistic Growth Model
last month
Insight diagram
The dynamics of a moose population with density-dependent birth rate...the birth rate equals the death rate when the population is at carrying capacity; the birth rate is greater than the death rate when the population is below carrying capacity; the birth rate is below the death rate when the population is above carrying capacity.
Clone of Logistic Moose Population Dynamics Deterministic w Delay
last month
Insight diagram
The population dynamics of Markham, Ontario, appear in this model. Based on carrying capacity, birth rate, and death rate, it models how Markham's population evolves over time. Because the effects of growing population density, such as a demand on housing, infrastructure, land, and services, may take time to impact population increase, a time delay is implemented.

Dynamics of Markham - Nasrin Tewfik
last month
Insight diagram
The dynamics of a moose population with density-dependent birth rate...the birth rate equals the death rate when the population is at carrying capacity; the birth rate is greater than the death rate when the population is below carrying capacity; the birth rate is below the death rate when the population is above carrying capacity.
Clone of Logistic Moose Population Dynamics Deterministic w Delay
Insight diagram
Oshawa population dynamics: 
This model shows describes and predicts the dynamics of the population of the City of Oshawa in the next 100 years. The growth rate is calculated by considering the overall birth rate, death rate, net immigration rate and the carrying capacity of the city. Our starting population as of 2026 is 221497 people and the carrying capacity is set to 1,000,000. Each stock clearly displays the different rates that affect the overall growth rate of the population of Oshawa. 
Model of Oshawa human population dynamics
Insight diagram
The dynamics of a moose population with density-dependent birth rate...the birth rate equals the death rate when the population is at carrying capacity; the birth rate is greater than the death rate when the population is below carrying capacity; the birth rate is below the death rate when the population is above carrying capacity.
Clone of Logistic Moose Population Dynamics Deterministic w Delay
Insight diagram
This model simulates the human population dynamics of Boston, Massachusetts. Because the city is geographically constrained, the birth rate equals the death rate when the population reaches its carrying capacity of 850,000 due to strict housing and space limits. The growth rate is positive when the population is below this capacity, creating an S-curve that starts at our initial population of 650,000.
Logistic Population Dynamics: Boston, MA
last month
Insight diagram
This model shows a rough estimate of the population projection of the state Oklahoma in relation to the human population. The population growth is dependent on the carrying capacity with birth rate exceeding death rate.
Sanjith's Logistic Population Dynamics