SUST1001U Models

These models and simulations have been tagged “SUST1001U”.

Insight diagram
This model represents the population of ancient Rome in 200 BC with a density-dependent birth rate...the birth rate does not equal the death rate when the population is at carrying capacity because immigration and emigration are also factors. All values are based on historical estimates, as precise figures are not available.

Carrying capacity becomes less effective at maintaining a population when outsiders can migrate in and out. Even though the birth rate may be slightly negative, immigration can lead to a booming population increase

The Model is for an increase in population growth and can not represent a decrease. The time frame is 300 years rather than 100, as it provides a clearer picture of where the long-term growth is heading
Aunri's Logistic Ancient Rome population Model
last month
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The dynamics of Toronto’s population involve density-dependent growth, immigration, and emigration. The birth and death rates balance when the population is at carrying capacity; births exceed deaths when the population is below carrying capacity; and deaths exceed births when the population is above carrying capacity. Immigration and emigration provide additional population inflows and outflows based on 2025 data.
Logistic Toronto Population Dynamics Deterministic w Delay
last month
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The dynamics of the National Capital Region population with birth, death, immigration, and emigration rates that are the same year in and year out.

Source: 
Statistics Canada. (2026). Components of population change by census metropolitan area and census agglomeration, 2021 boundaries. Government of Canada. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710014901
Population Dynamics of the National Capital Region (Ottawa)
last month
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The dynamics of Oshawa's human population with a density-dependent growth rate, projected from 2026 to 2126. Births and in-migration outpace deaths and out-migration while the population is below carrying capacity; the two balance out at carrying capacity; and deaths and out-migration would outpace births if the population overshot it. A five-year delay means crowding slows growth only after a lag, since housing takes years to build, and people move based on conditions they saw in the past.

Oshawa Human Population Dynamics, 2026-2126
last month
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The dynamics of a Human population with birth and death rates that are the same year in and year out, as of 2024 (the most recent I could find), in the Oshawa Region. 
Oshawa Human Population Exponential Growth Deterministic
last month
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The dynamics of a moose population with  birth and death rates that are the same year in and year out.
Clone of Moose Population Exponential Growth Deterministic
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This model represents the population of Durham Region, Ontario (the eastern GTA, including Oshawa, Whitby, Ajax, Pickering, and Clarington), using the same density-dependent logistic structure as a wildlife population model. Unlike a closed animal population, most of Durham's growth comes from net migration rather than biological births and deaths, so "growth rate" here means the region's overall per-capita population growth (natural increase + net migration combined), not literal fertility/mortality rates. Growth is fastest while the region is well below its land-use/infrastructure capacity and tapers toward a low background rate as the region approaches build-out. A delay is included because housing supply and infrastructure only respond to population pressure after a lag; rezoning and construction take years, not months.
Durham Region Population Growth: A Migration-Driven Logistic Model
Insight diagram
This system diagram represents population levels for humans ranging from the world population level down to the Oshawa population level. This diagram consists of stocks which represent World, Canada, Ontario, Durham Region, and Oshawa in terms of number of people. The flows in the diagram represent the movement of people between the population levels in terms of people per year.
Haifa Arfan's Human Population Dynamics
last month
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A model simulating the population growth (Humans) of Oshawa (the city proper) over a 100-year timeline. The models growth is influenced by per capita birth rates, death rates, and migration (in-flows and out-flows). Population growth is determined by a carrying capacity of approx. 400,000 people which reflectsOshawa's (approximate) urban and infrastructure limits. Net growth is positive when the population is below carrying capacity, balanced when at capacity, and negative when it exceeds capacity. All stocks, flows, and variables use standard units (humans, humans/year, and 1/year).
Oshawa Human Population Growth Dynamics Model
last month
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This model shows how Markham’s population could change over the next 100 years. The population is affected by births, deaths, and net migration. Net migration includes both people moving into and out of Markham. Births and migration increase the population while deaths reduce it. The model also uses a carrying capacity of 500,000 people. The carrying capacity represents an assumed limit of people to how much the city of Markham can support. As Markham’s population gets closer to this limit, the growth rate slows down. Because of this, the population grows faster at the beginning of the simulation and then  slowly as it approaches the carrying capacity.
Markham Human Population 100 Year Projection Growth Model
last month
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This model projects the population of the city of Miami, Florida over the next 100 years using a stock and flow structure. The single stock, Miami Population, is increased by the Births and Immigration and decreased by the Deaths and Emigration. Miami's birth and death rates are quite balanced, therefore, the main driving force of Miami's increase in population is migration shaping the city's future population. 
Miami's Migration-Driven Future: 100 Year Population Model
last month
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A predictive model of Hawaii's human population from the initial 2026 population over the next century, using birth, death & migration rates.
Prediction Model of Human Population of Hawaii (2026) over a century
last month
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The dynamics of the human population between the years of 2024-2025 using the statistics of the the population to the city of Halifax.This entails the birth, death, immigration and emigration rates components used to determine population growth. 
Human Population Dynamics of Halifax, Nova Scotia
last month
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This model shows how Toronto's population can change over time while considering the city's limited space and resources. As more people move into the city, resources such as housing, jobs, and food may become more limited, which can slow population growth. The model uses a carrying capacity to represent the population Toronto could reasonably support. It also includes a delay to show that the effects of a growing population may take some time to occur. Overall, I made this model to show how population growth over the span of 100 years can happen quickly, and as Toronto gets closer to its carrying capacity, it will effect many lives of the individuals living there. 
Logistic Growth of the Human Population in Toronto
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This system dynamics model simulates the population dynamics of Boston, Massachusetts, starting from a baseline population of 650,000 residents. The model evaluates long-term population change by tracking four simultaneous dynamic flows: natural births, baseline mortality, domestic/international immigration, and emigration.
Human Population Dynamics: Boston, MA
last month
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This is a model demonstrating the scale of growth for the town of Newmarket, located in Canada Ontario, roughly 60km north of Toronto. The total population capacity for Newmarket was based off of York Region Figures of 118,500 people in the year 2051, and the current population was based off a current rough number of around 97,000 people.

This model calculates 2 things, firstly, it calculates the main population growth just by births alone. It does this by taking the average population growth rate in Newmarket which is roughly 1.13%, and the average death rate which is roughly 0.78%. 

Secondly, Newmarket gets a large portion of its growth by migration. Because migration percentages are hard to calculate, and are very rough, we must find the minimum potential growth rate for Newmarket every year. Based on the available historical data, I have chosen 0.3% total migration growth rate.

After simulating this graph, it will show 2 bars. 1 bar will show the growth without immigration, and the other will show the total growth of Newmarket's population taking into account the potential migration of people.
Model of the Human Population in Newmarket Ontario
last month
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This model shows the growth of the human population of Edmonton, Alberta over a 100 year period. The model starts with an estimated population of 1.3 million and uses birth/death rates to determine the population's natural growth. 

As the population increases, the per-capita growth rate decreases. This causes population growth to slow down as Edmonton approaches its carrying capacity of 2 million people. A 10 year delay represents the time for population density to affect growth.

Sources: 
https://regionaldashboard.alberta.ca/#/explore-an-indicator?i=births&d=CalculatedValue 
Julia Pajaro: Logistic Growth Model of Edmonton's Human Population (2026–2126)
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This model shows fluctuations in Durham Region's population due to factors like births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. The Human Population stock represents the entire population. However, during this 100-year cycle, the total population figure is not fixed and will increase or decrease through the four main types of population flows: two inflow items and two outflow items.
Human Population Growth Model: Durham Region
last month
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This model shows the growth of the human population in Markham. The initial number of population is set to 350k, and the model assumes that the capacity is 500k. The model's purpose is to show how population growth can actually slow down as a population approaches its carrying capacity. 

The nHumans stock represents the number of people living in Markham and is measured in people. Human Births is an inflow into the population number and is measured in people per year. The rate depends on the current population, the human birth rate, and the remaining capacity for population growth. Human deaths are an outflow from the population stock and are measured in people per year; this depends on the current population and the human death rate. 
Human birth rate and human death rate are both variables measured in 1 per year. The carrying capacity is a variable also measured in people and represents the approximate population limit used in this simplified model. My model is a simplified representation of logistic population growth and doesn't currently account for immigration or changes in birth and death rates. 
Human population growth - Markham
last month
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The dynamics of human population growth across different geographic scales, in the following order, Oshawa, Durham, Ontario, Canada then the Global population. Population size changes over time based on births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. Births and immigration increase the population, while deaths and emigration decrease it. For the global scale, the population is only impacted by births and deaths as there is no meaningful immigration to or emigration from Earth.

Human Population Dynamics Across Geographic Scales
last month
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This shows the global human population over the next X years, with a max global capacity of 12 billion, initial population of 8 billion, birth rate of 0.4, and death rate of 0.2. 
Simulation of Human Population
last month
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The dynamics of a moose population with density-dependent birth rate...the birth rate equals the death rate when the population is at carrying capacity; the birth rate is greater than the death rate when the population is below carrying capacity; the birth rate is below the death rate when the population is above carrying capacity.
Logistic Oshawa Population Dynamics Deterministic w Delay
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The model shows the change of Pickering's population by using birth rate, death rate and also how many people move in and out of the city. The population stock shows the number of residents and the flows are based on people per year. The model assumes that as the population grows and housing becomes more limited, the rate at which people move in decreases. Every data value that I entered aside from the population is my own assumption.
Pickering's estimated population over a century
last month
Insight diagram
The dynamics of a moose population with density-dependent birth rate...the birth rate equals the death rate when the population is at carrying capacity; the birth rate is greater than the death rate when the population is below carrying capacity; the birth rate is below the death rate when the population is above carrying capacity.
Clone of Clone of Logistic Moose Population Dynamics Deterministic w Delay