Traffic-Accidents Models

These models and simulations have been tagged “Traffic-Accidents”.

 The problem situation actually
prevailed for some time in Zaragoza, Spain, in 2010. Repeated accidents
occurred on a treacherous curve that gave the visual impression of being less
pronounced than it actually was. At the time I investigated the situation. After
considering various aspects of the pr

The problem situation actually prevailed for some time in Zaragoza, Spain, in 2010. Repeated accidents occurred on a treacherous curve that gave the visual impression of being less pronounced than it actually was. At the time I investigated the situation. After considering various aspects of the problem, it seemed the most likely cause of the repeat accidents was excessive speed, which caused many cars to crash into a lamp post on the side of the road. Despite putting up many warning signs, the accidents continued. I found that a simple archetype called "Shifting-The-Burden" illustrate and perfectly explained the probable cause of these repeated accidents. The situation suggested that a structural problem existed, and that a modification of the structure of the road was necessary to deal with the problem. This conclusion is supported by an old systems thinking adage that says: "if you want to change the behaviour of a system, then change its structure". That modification of the road structure was eventually carried out by the local authorities, and unsurprisingly, no further accidents occurred after that, which seems to have vindicated the findings of the investigation.

 Contraflow bus lanes seem to produce a never ending succession of accidents involving pedestrians. An understandable reaction is that pedestrians are careless and that more visible indicators of the potential danger is an appropriate measure. This leads to the 'Symptomatic Solution' - but unfortuna

Contraflow bus lanes seem to produce a never ending succession of accidents involving pedestrians. An understandable reaction is that pedestrians are careless and that more visible indicators of the potential danger is an appropriate measure. This leads to the 'Symptomatic Solution' - but unfortunately accidents are not usually stopped by symptomatic solutions. Another but potentially far more costly and time-consuming approach is available: investigating a fundamental solution. Recent findings in cognitive science have shown that often repeated actions (like looking to the right when crossing the street) are phisically represented in our brains - see George Lakoff and Mark Johnson's book Philosophy in the Flesh. It seems that looking in the wrong directon is a default setting in our brain that is almost impossible to correct. The fundamental solution must deal with the implication of this and any other reasons that contribute to the accidents. In the town where I live, and surely in many other cities, contraflow bus lanes are still in operation - here, I'm sure, Systems Thinking could help and inform public policy.