BMA708 | Insight Maker

The model simulates the comparison between mountain biking industry and forestry/logging in Derby Tasmania.

How the model works

On the left-hand side, Derby Mountain biking, tourists visit the mountain according to reviews and recommendation of mountain scenery and entertainment activities. The number of people who hire bikes and who choose to dine on the mountain are limited by bike availability. Both bike hiring and biker dining contribute to tourist revenue in Derby. On the right-hand side, forest trees grow at certain rates, but are negatively affected by timber demand. Timber logging generate revenue, which depends on sale price and associated cost.

Interesting insights

Although forestry contributes more revenue in a certain time, it seems that Derby Mountain bike generate more tourist revenue from dining services and bike hiring in a long term.

Simulation of Derby Mountain biking versus logging

Yuanyuan Zhao

Explanation of the Model

This is a Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania which shows the government actions in response to the pandemic COVID-19 and its affects on the Economy. The government health policy changes depending on the reported cases, which is a dependent upon the testing rate.

Assumptions

Lockdown and travel ban were the main factor in government policy. It negatively impacts on the Economic growth as individuals are not going out which is directly affects the business around the world, in this insight 'Burnie'. This reduces the economic growth and the factors positively effecting economic growth such as Tourism.

Government policies has a negative impact on Exposer of individuals. Moreover, it also has a negative impact on chances of infection when exposed as well as other general infection rate.

Interesting Insight

There is a significant impact of test rating on COVID-19 outbreak. Higher rates increases the government involvement, which decreases cases as well as the total death.

In contrast, lower testing rates increase the death rate and cases.

Tourism which plays a avital role in Tasmanian Economy greatly affects the Economic Growth. The decline of Tourism in parts of Tasmania such as Burnie, would directly decrease the economy of Tasmania.

BMA 708, Assessment Tast 3: Complex System, Burnie COVID-19 outbreak, Diprina Shakya-519673

Diprina Shakya

6

Overview

A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania.

How the model works:

Trees grow, and we cut them down because of the demand for Timber and sell the logs. Mountain bikers and holiday visitors will come to the park and this depends on experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depend on the Scenery, number of trees compared to the visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users. To utilize highest park capacity, they need to promote to the holiday visitor segment as well. Again, the visit depends on the scenery. So, both mountain biking and forestry (logging) businesses need to contribute a significant amount of revenue to CSR for faster regrowth of trees.

Interesting insights

It looks like a lot of logging doesn't stop people from mountain biking.

Faster replantation of the tree will balance out the impact created by logging which will give the visitor a positive experience and the number of visitors is both improved.

To keep the park's popularity in check, the price of wood needs to be high.

Also, it looks like mountain biking only needs a narrow path.

CSR contribution to nature can be a crucial factor.

Simulation model of Mountain biking versus logging MD Raihanul Islam, ID 591146

MD Raihanul Islam

Overview

A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

How the model works.

Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.

With mountain bkie visits. This depends on past experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users.

Interesting insights

It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking. By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved. A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers. Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking

Assignment of Simulation of Mountain biking versus logging MD Raihanul Islam

MD Raihanul Islam

3

Overview:

This model shows the relationship between the tourist industry and forestry industry in Derby Tasmania. It simulates the situation where these two competing industries can co-exist.

Methodologies:

Tourists are attracted by the beautiful scenery, good air quality and biodiversity in Mountain bike trail in Derby. The tourism income increase when more visitors are attracted to use the mountain bike trail.

The forestry industry generates revenue by logging and selling timber. Increasing timber supplied will destroy the forests, which makes the park less attractive for tourists.

However, the income from forestry and tourism can be used to improve the facilities in the park to attract more visitors.

Findings:

When the amount of timber supplied is less than the regrowth rate of forests, the tourism industry and forestry industry can co-exist. If amount of timber supplied excesses the regrowth rate, tourism industry will be negative impacted.

Simulation of Derby Mountain logging versus biking

Shaoyue Liu

Overview
This model is a working simulation of the competition between the mountain biking tourism industry versus the forestry logging within Derby Tasmania.

How the model works

The left side of the model highlights the mountain bike flow beginning with demand for the forest that leads to increased visitors using the forest of mountain biking. Accompanying variables effect the tourism income that flows from use of the bike trails.
On the right side, the forest flow begins with tree growth then a demand for timber leading to the logging production. The sales from the logging then lead to the forestry income.
The model works by identifying how the different variables interact with both mountain biking and logging. As illustrated there are variables that have a shared effect such as scenery and adventure and entertainment.

Variables
The variables are essential in understanding what drives the flow within the model. For example mountain biking demand is dependent on positive word mouth which in turn is dependent on scenery. This is an important factor as logging has a negative impact on how the scenery changes as logging deteriorates the landscape and therefore effects positive word of mouth.
By establishing variables and their relationships with each other, the model highlights exactly how mountain biking and forestry logging effect each other and the income it supports.

Interesting Insights
The model suggests that though there is some impact from logging, tourism still prospers in spite of negative impacts to the scenery with tourism increasing substantially over forestry income. There is also a point at which the visitor population increases exponentially at which most other variables including adventure and entertainment also increase in result. The model suggests that it may be possible for logging and mountain biking to happen simultaneously without negatively impacting on the tourism income.

Clone of Simulation of Derby Mountain biking versus logging

Sanjay

2 months ago

ABOUT THE MODEL

This is a dynamic model that shows the correlation between the health-related policies implemented by the Government in response to COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania, and the policies’ impact on the Economic activity of the area.

ASSUMPTIONS

The increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is directly proportional to the increase in the Government policies in the infected region. The Government policies negatively impact the economy of Burnie, Tasmania.

INTERESTING INSIGHTS

1. When the borders are closed by the government, the economy is severely affected by the decrease of revenue generated by the Civil aviation/Migration rate. As the number of COVID-19 cases increase, the number of people allowed to enter Australian borders will also decrease by the government.

2. The Economic activity sharply increases and stays in uniformity.

3. The death rate drastically decreased as we increased test rate by 90%.

Clone of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania (Rajaa Sajjad, 538837)

Sanjay

2 months ago

A model situmalte the relationship between moutain bikes and logging industry in Derby, Tasmania, It explains more when the number of visitors increases or decreses.

How the model works

The left side shows when the number of travellers increase, the income from travellers rental of bike and stay of hotel increase simultaneously. However, there is a capacity for both parking lots and hotel venues, which means that the top ability of hospitality of Derby. The right side shows the logging industry of Derby and income from logging. It has a impact on how travellers would value Derby moutain.

Insights

As the number of travellers increase, it increases the total income of Derby, and in return, the local government will re-revest in Derby Moutain and will also maintain the forrestry logging industry.

Clone of Simulation of Derby Moutain Bikes Versus Biking

Sanjay

2 months ago

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