L'idée est de percevoir les "dynamiques" des "systèmes" à l'oeuvre dans le changement climatique à l'échelle planétaire. Pour cela comprendre les stocks, flux, boucles de rétroactions (lorsqu'un phénomène X influx sur un autre Y, qui influx à son tour sur X) permet de faire apparaître les liens de
L'idée est de percevoir les "dynamiques" des "systèmes" à l'oeuvre dans le changement climatique à l'échelle planétaire. Pour cela comprendre les stocks, flux, boucles de rétroactions (lorsqu'un phénomène X influx sur un autre Y, qui influx à son tour sur X) permet de faire apparaître les liens de causes à conséquences parfois difficilement perceptibles.

L'idée étant de s'adosser sur le succès de la Fresque du Climat, qui a vulgarisé la compréhension du changement climatique pour désormais l'analyser grâce à la dynamique des systèmes (et comprendre ce qu'est un modèle, son utilité).


Sur la base du travail de Scott Formann-Roe
11 months ago
 A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth ( primary source ). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere ( primary source ).
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).

The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.

This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.

🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
2 months ago
   THE 2020 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.  WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER R

THE 2020 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

2 months ago
 A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth ( primary source ). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere ( primary source ).
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).

The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.

This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.

🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
2 months ago
   THE 2020 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.  WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER R

THE 2020 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

2 months ago
 A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth ( primary source ). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere ( primary source ).
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).

The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.

This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.

🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
 A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth ( primary source ). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere ( primary source ).
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).

The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.

This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.

🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
2 months ago
 A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth ( primary source ). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere ( primary source ).
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).

The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.

This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.

🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
2 months ago