Politics | Insight Maker

WIP example to illustrate Cultural Theory

THE 2020 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.

BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.

CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

WORLD2020 to PLANET2020

Guy Lakeman

6

WIP Summary of Science 2019 article Dryzek The crisis of democracy and the science of deliberation

Deliberation without polarization

Geoff McDonnell

WIP Summary of Davies 2017 article from special Theory Culture and Society issue on Elites and Power after Financialization

Elite Power under Advanced Neoliberalism

Geoff McDonnell

S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve Showing Erlang Distribution

Generation of Bell Curve from Initial Market through Delay in Pickup of Customers

This provides the beginning of an Erlang distribution model

The Erlang distribution is a two parameter family of continuous probability distributions with support . The two parameters are:

a positive integer 'shape'
a positive real 'rate' ; sometimes the scale , the inverse of the rate is used.

Clone of S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve by Guy Lakeman

Nilo Guimaraes

WIP based on Health Research Policy and Systems Paper

Cure Crowding Out Prevention

Geoff McDonnell

WIP Summary of Michael Thompson's Book

Organising and Disorganising

Geoff McDonnell

WIP based on Tom Keneally's Three Famines Book

Three Famines

Geoff McDonnell

The probability density function (PDF) of the normal distribution or Bell Curve of Normal or Gaussian Distribution is the mean or expectation of the distribution (and also its median and mode).

The parameter is its standard deviation with its variance then, A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.

However, those who enjoy upskirts are called deviants and have a variable distribution :)

A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.

If mu = 0 and sigma = 1

If the Higher Education Numbers Are Increased then the group decision making ability of society would be raised above that of a middle teenager as it is now

BUT

Governments can control children by using bad parenting techniques, pandering to the pleasure principle, so they will make higher education more and more difficult as they are doing

85% of the population has a qualification level equal or below a 12th grader, 17 year old ... the chance of finding someone with any sense is low (~1 in 6) and the outcome of them being chosen by those who are uneducated in the policies they are to decide is even more rare !!!

Experience means little if you don't have enough brain to analyse it

Democracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives. National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.

Democracy: Where a group allows the decision ability of a teenager to decide on a choice of mis-representatives who are unqualified to make judgement on social policies that affect the lives of millions.

The kind of children who would vote for King Kong who can hold a girl in one hand and swat fighter jets out of teh sky off the tallest building, doesn't have a brain cell or thought to call his own but has a nice smile and offers little girls sweets.

updated 16/3/2020 from 4 years 3 months ago

Clone of The probability density function (PDF) of the normal distribution or Bell Curve Gaussian Distribution by Guy Lakeman

Nilo Guimaraes

Extended from Im-628 Supply and demand by adding control folder.

See also Managing Health Services Use IM-17566

Based on JHPPL 2015 article Note here the framing is an economic exchange rather than a public service (needs-services-resources) or capabilities

Neoliberalism and health policy

Geoff McDonnell

On the occasion of th G20-meeting in Toronto, the German Economics minister Herr Schaüble said that without restoring confidence it would not be possible to get consumer spending and business investment going. Similar remarks were made by David Cameron and Señor Zapatero of Spain. All maintain that confidence is a pre-requisite to get growth going and that, therefore, it was imperative to reduce fiscal deficits. Reducing the fiscal deficit will restore confidence at first. However, reducing the deficit very quickly will introduce a dynamic that may cause the economy to decline - and perhaps depress consumers demand even further. It will actually destroy confidence: few businesses are inclined to invest in a shrinking economy. Cutting the deficit too rapidly or too steeply can lead to a confidence trap.

NOTE: A big experiment is now taking place in the UK - the government has cut public spending severely! Will this lead to hardship and, perhaps, social unrest?

Confidence Trap and Growth

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Book summary WIP

The Economics of JK Galbraith

Geoff McDonnell

Book summary of Albert O Hirschman's 1982 book, explaining cycles of collective public action.

Shifting involvements

Geoff McDonnell

3

Based on Gunderson Holling and Light. Barriers and Bridges to the Renewal of Ecosystems and Institutions book Columbia University Press 1995. esp Fig 12.1 p499 Table 12.1 p 502 and FIg 12.4 p 521 and IM-11581 Managing mess

Institutional adaptive cycles

Geoff McDonnell

Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a great deal of sense.

Original model done for The Perspectives Project though recast into Kumu.

Clone of Why Nations Fail

Tsholo

WIP Comparing Univeral Basic Income Guarantee with the Job Guarantee based on comparison articles

UBI and Job Guarantee Comparison

Geoff McDonnell

Michael Marmot's Eur J Epidemiol Essay 2017 See also IM-62760 Social determinants of health from Michael Marmot's ABC 2016 Boyer Lectures on Social Justice and the Health Gap

Social Justice, Epidemiology and Health Inequalities

Geoff McDonnell

A simple generic rich picture WIP view of interactions among social structures and agents and Boonstra's 2016 conceptualizing power article from Ecology and Society

Power and Health Interests

Geoff McDonnell

Expansion of IM-24317 for adding other funding insights Im-633 and 636 . See also IM-57110 contrasting economic drivers of mental health with other health care based on JHPPL David Mechanic 2016 issue articles, esp Glied

Political Economy of Health Services 2

Geoff McDonnell

Summary of Buchanan 2008 AJPH article

Autonomy Paternalism and Justice: Ethics in Public Health

Geoff McDonnell

Australia has an independent national broadcasting service - the Australian Broadcasting Commission (ABC). The ABC is legally required to be objective, which in practice encourages viewers to be swinging voters. However, the lack of anti-media-monopolisation laws in Australia means that a powerful Media Mogul can act as the propaganda arm of a particular party whether it is in majority government or not. The Conservative Liberal-National-Coalition Party of Australia always strives to erode, deconstruct and disempower the ABC. The other major party - the Australian Labor Party strongly supports the ABC and its non-partisan mandate. Therefore the political playing field in Australia is definitely not level and the current Government very much likes it that way, so it will never act to curb Rupert Murdoch's powers of influence in the country.

LNP-Murdoch_vs_ALP-ABC

Dave Davis

Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a great deal of sense.

Original model done for The Perspectives Project though recast into Kumu.

Clone of Why Nations Fail

Nate Veldkamp

Describes and draws on insights from the book, the "The End of Power" by Moises Naim, to examine the relationships between power, trust, and the ability of us collectively to deal with big issues such as climate change.

Clone of Tyranny-anarchy-power-trust

sub cribed

Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a great deal of sense.

Original model done for The Perspectives Project though recast into Kumu.

Clone of Why Nations Fail

Luzi Schucan

Politics Models