Tourism | Insight Maker

Socio-Ecological Model on Climate Change Impacts and its implications for the Tourism Sector

Climate Change Impacts on the Tourism Sector

Overview

A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

How the model works.

Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.

With mountain bkie visits. This depends on past experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users.

Interesting insights

It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking. By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved. A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers. Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking

Simulation of Derby Mountain biking versus logging

Steven D'Alessandro

20

Based on System Zoo EZ411 Tourist.mdl Vensim model. Caroline Brennan 21/02/2018.

Tourism Simple Model

Caroline Brennan

Based on System Zoo EZ412D, EZ411, EZ412A.

Sustainable Ecotourism

Libby Boissy

Overview

A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

How the model works.

Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.

With mountain bkie visits. This depends on past experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users.

Interesting insights

It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking. By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved. A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers. Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking

Assignment of Simulation of Mountain biking versus logging MD Raihanul Islam

MD Raihanul Islam

This model explains the difference between Mountain bikes riding compared to logging in the Tasmanian forests.

Logging allows the activity in the forest with a negative demand for timber providing an income (with the price variable). The deforestation variable shows us that over time, the forest will run out if the logging keeps going on this way.

Alternatively, mountain biking allows a demand of visitors who want to see the scenary. They increase the regional tourism which is good for the community as it involves other businesses around too. The charges paid by visitors and tourists allow an income for the activity which makes it productive over time and great for TAS.

As we stimulate the model, we can see that it is better to have more visitors and more tourists rather than more logging as it will be better over time.

Maylis - Simulation of Derby Mountain bikes riding versus logging

Maylis P

This is an assignment for BMA708 - Marketing Insights into Big Data for the University of Tasmania. It investigates the links, impacts and relationships between Mountain Biking and Forestry in the Derby Mountain Bike Park in Tasmania's North East.

To use this model, you can click through the story in the bottom left hand corner and/or adjust the values on the right hand side sliders and click the "Run Simulation" button within the model.

BMA708 - Marketing Insights into Big Data - Assignment 3 - Chris Rawson

Chris Rawson

Overview

The model shows the industry connection and conflict between Forestry and Mountain Tourism in Derby, Tasmania. The objective of this simulation is to find out the balance point for co-exist.

How Does the Model Work?

Both industries can provide economic contribution to Tasmania. Firstly, selling timbers through logging would generate income. Also, spendings from mountain bike riders would generate incomes. However, low tree regrowth rate can not cover up logging, which influences the beautiful vistas and riders' experiences. While satisfaction and expectation depend on vistas and experience, the demand of mountain biking would be influenced through repeat visits and world of mouth as well.

Interesting Insights

Although forestry can provide a great amount of economic contribution to Tasmania, over logging goes against ESG framework as well as creating conflict with mountain tourism. As long as the number of rider visits is stable, tourism can always provide a greater economic contribution compared to forestry. Therefore, the government should consider the balance point between two industries.

Simulation of Derby Mountain Bikes versus Forestry

Silong Lou

Clone of Clone of Tugas Akhir Pemsim Kelompok

Putri AyuS

Overview

It is a model simulating logging and adventure tourism (mountain bike riding) competition in Derby, Tasmania. It is a chance for northeast Tasmania to become an exciting, new, world-class product for the mountain bike tourism industry, which drives local economic development.

Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

How the model works

l Trees grow; we cut them down because of demand for Timber and sell the logs.

l The mountain bike visits depend on previous experience and suggestions.

l Previous experience and suggestions depend on the number of trees compared to visitors and adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of mountain bike trail users.

l The employment opportunity depends on the mountain bike demand and demand for Timber.

Interesting Insights

Mountain biking appears to be unaffected by heavy logging. The visitor experience and numbers are improved by reducing park capacity. The main issue is that any success with the mountain bike park increases visitor numbers. A high timber price is also required to balance the park's popularity. Mountain biking appears to require only a narrow corridor; that is, single-track mountain bike trails are enough. The employment is a measure of the economic acting, a recession or growth trends.

BMA708 Marketing Insights into Big Data_Complex Systems_Mountain bike riding versus logging in Derby, Tasmania

Peili Zhang

Overview:

This model displays the conflict between the tourism and timber industry in Derby, Tasmania. It becomes a problem for the government officials when choosing the future policy direction. Our aim is to construct a model for simulation and find a equilibrium point to maximize the state benefit.

How Does the Model Work?

The key factor of the model is the value of the policy variable. It can take values between -1 and +1. The more it is close to +1 means that the policy government takes is more tourism-friendly. The more it is close to -1 means that the policy government takes is more timber-friendly.

Other than the policy variable, there are three sections for the model.

Section 1: The tourism

We assume that there exist a population which contains the whole potential customers. The potential customers will make bike trips to Derby at a relatively stable rate. The input policy value will affect the satisfaction rate for the tourists. Some of them will provide positive feedbacks and become our potential customers again. On the other hand, those had bad experience will no longer make trips to Derby. All the tourists make consumption every month and part of the expense will become the tourism revenue. The average expense variable is also provided in this section.

Section 2: The timber industry

The input policy variable will also affect the employment in the timber industry. It will partially determine the industry growth rate. Like the tourism, the sales/industry scale will generate monthly revenue for the industry at a given rate.

Section 3: The state benefit

The revenue from the two industries will be added up. Our aim is to adjust the policy value to maximize the state benefit.

Interesting Insights

Excessive logging may lead to environmental problems and it isn’t the best option for the whole state benefit. Based on the pre-set parameters and the model, we can see that the revenue contribution from the tourism is also considerable. According to our results, the policy value should be around 0.31, which represents the tourism-friendly policy.

BMA708 Marketing Insights into Big Data_Complex

Yifan SONG 448403

Policy Intervention: Ecotourism

Libby Boissy

Overview:

This simulation will show the relationship between tree logging forestry and how this can affect mountain biking tourism in Derby Park Tasmania. The main goal of this simulation is to show these two industries can co-exist in the same environment, or increase in demand or production in one sector will affect the result of another.

Function of the model:

In comparison there are both pros and cons for both sectors working correspondently. Demand for derby park is caused by individual past experience when visiting the park or friends recommendation which increase in the number of demands. Increase in demands will increase in the number of visitors. When visitors visits the park they require make a purchase a bike and pay the park for using the park facilities. All this will adds up to bikers total spending when visiting Derby. When consumer spend it is booting the economy especially in the tourism sector. Similarly tree logging will also contribute financially towards the Tasmania economy. The regeneration stage is relatively low compare to the logging rate. The growth will not cover the loss which can cause some level of damage in the scenery of the park, affecting tourist to view when mountain biking. Visitors overall experience will have the impact towards the demand for mountain biking in derby park, if visitors experience is satisfied they will come back to visit again or visit with group of friends, even words of mouth recommendation will also increase the level of demand of visiting Derby.

Some key insights base on the simulation:

Based on the simulation of the two models we can see there are some key changes.

Tree logging increase will cause the disturbance of the natural scenery, thus change the overall experience of the visitors, decrease in the level of demand. Tree logging will also have negative impact towards the overall tourist experience thus affect the park facility and track. The natural scenery and the overall experience can affect their experience and if they would continue to recommend this area to friends to increase the demand.

Assignment 3 Derby mountain biking and the effect of logging - 586984

Kelly

This is a model which explains the difference between Mountain bikes riding compared to logging in the Tasmanian forests.

Simulation of Derby Mountain bikes riding versus logging

Maylis P

There is a concern that Logging has an adverse effect on the experience of tourist mountain bikers looking for nature experiences in Derby, Tasmaina.

This model helps give more insight on the relationship between the forest industry and mountain tourism, showing that despite the changes and increase in logging activities with the aim of generating more income from timber, there can be a balance between mountain tourism and the forest industry.

Complex systems. Mountain bike riding versus logging in Derby, Tasmania

Olude Oluwabusayo Olufunke

Tourists in A Coruña

Germán Otero Méndez

Overview:

The model shows the industry competition and relationship between Forrestry and Mountain Bike Trip in Derby, Tasmania. The aim of the simulation is to find a balance between the co-existence of these two industry.

How Does the Model Work?

Both industries will generate incomes. Firstly, income is generated from the sale of timber through logging. In addition, income is also generated from the consumption of mountain bike riders. Regarding to the Forrestry industry, people cut down trees because there is a market demand for timber. The timber is sold for profits. However, the experience of mountain biking tourism is largely affected by the low regeneration rate of trees and the degradation of the environment and landscape due to tree felling. People have better riding experiences when trees are abundant and the scenery is beautiful. People's satisfaction and expectations depend on the scenery and experience. Recommendations of past riders will also impact the tourists amount.

Interesting Insights

The income generated by logging can provide a significant economic contribution to Tasmania, but excessive logging can lead to environmental problems and a reduction in visitors. Excessive logging can lead to a decline in tourism in the mountains, which will affect tourism. Despite the importance of forestry, tourism can also provide a significant economic contribution to Tasmania. The government should find a balance between the two industries while maintaining the number of tourists.

Simulation of Derby Mountain bikes versus logging

nicole

Overview

The model simulates how logging in with tourism(mountain biking) in Derby Tasmania.

How the model works.

Trees grow, loggers cut them in order to sell them because of demand for Timber.

Mountain cyclist depends on satisfaction and expectation. Satisfaction and Expectation depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users. Local Business is influenced by the timber and number of Mountain Cyclist. Employment is influenced by the number of mountain cyclist and logging activity.

Simulation of Mountain Cyclist vs logging

Shu Wang

Overview

A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

How the model works.

Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.

With mountain bkie visits. This depends on past experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users.

Interesting insights

It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking. By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved. A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers. Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking

Assignment of Simulation of Mountain biking versus logging MD Raihanul Islam

MD Raihanul Islam

3

this simulation is a thesis project.please help me bulid this one

thesis

REYMOND CEMPRON

The model simulates the comparison between mountain biking industry and forestry/logging in Derby Tasmania.

How the model works

On the left-hand side, Derby Mountain biking, tourists visit the mountain according to reviews and recommendation of mountain scenery and entertainment activities. The number of people who hire bikes and who choose to dine on the mountain are limited by bike availability. Both bike hiring and biker dining contribute to tourist revenue in Derby. On the right-hand side, forest trees grow at certain rates, but are negatively affected by timber demand. Timber logging generate revenue, which depends on sale price and associated cost.

Interesting insights

Although forestry contributes more revenue in a certain time, it seems that Derby Mountain bike generate more tourist revenue from dining services and bike hiring in a long term.

Simulation of Derby Mountain biking versus logging

Yuanyuan Zhao

Overview

The model explores the interactions between mountain biking industry and logging industry in Derby, Tasmania. Although both industries promote the economy, they generate income at a different rate and at each other's expense. Given such competing relationship, this model focuses on demonstrating to what extent can these two industries co-exist through runing simulation. Further, the model explores the conditions under which one may adversely impact the other.

How does the model work?

We build two models for forestry and mountain biking respectively. Each model demonstrates how the industry imposes influences and benefits the economy as a whole.

With mountain bike visits, forestry enhances the scenary and increases excitement and adventure, that will lead to better tourist experiences and recommendation. As such, more visitors come to the park, that boosts the economy through higher tourism income.
From the perspective of logging, logging creates employment opportunities and generates income from timber. On the other hand, it also degrades the scenary and the experience of mountain bikers looking for adventure. The immediate effect is the decreasing amount of visitors. However, fewer visitors improve experience and may pull up amount of park visits.

Interesting Insights

As shown from the simulation results, logging does not deter the development of mountain biking in Derby. Over the long term, adventure tourism is expected to continuously generate increasing income. This is attributable to the direct income from park charges, as well as accompanying spending in restaurants and accommodation. As a result, the total economic benefits for the local area is positive and tends to increase over time.
In addition, past experience fluctuates as the amount of visitors changes. These two variables interact and impose impacts on each other. More visitors will degrade the experience and decrease park visits, which will in turn improve the experience and increase park visits.
Moreover, demand for timber actually promotes adventure tourism through creating more job opportunities, which would increase park visits.

Simulation of Derby Mountain Biking versus Logging

Moqiao Wang

Simulation of Derby mountain bikes versus logging

BS

This model shows the changing happened in forest industry and mountain tourism in Derby Tasmania. Logging will degrade mountain tourism while benefit the forestry industry. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

According to the analysis, logging does not reduce tourism income. With the increase of number of bike guide, tourism income will increase as well. Also, in forest industry, timber income is higher than the harvest spending which means the industry always gain profits from logging. Therefore, the main concern is that the logging should be balanced between the Mountain Tourism and the forest industry.

Simulation of Derby Mountain bikes versus logging

Mirai

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