Youth Alienation in Bourke: a model for it's causes and reform

Youth alienation is operationalised as the rate per 100,000 of Juvenile offences in the town of Bourke. A baseline figure of 126 (per 100,000) is used and is extrapolated from NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics 2016  LGA table:  http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Pages/bocsar_crime_stats/bocsar_lgaexceltables.aspx

This is a broad model that seeks to demonstrate lowering the Youth alienation index by lowering the Juvenile offending rates in Bourke. This is achieved through the lowering of negative inputs and the increase of positive inputs.

Assumptions in this model are: 

1.) Juvenile = age 10 -19 years 

2.) Domestic Violence offences in the adult population (age 20 years plus), Youth Unemployment Rate and Antisocial Juvenile Gang Activity are the primary negative inputs contributing to increased Juvenile offending rates 

3.) Youth Programs and Services are the primary positive inputs to decreased Juvenile offending rates 

4.) The 4 primary inputs are influenced by variables directly or indirectly in positive inputs (blue lines and writing with plus signs), or negative inputs (red lines and writing with minus signs)

5.) Readers are advised to be aware of the “double negative” values in this model and it’s formulas. Youth Alienation is expressed in a positive number, despite being conceived of as a negative and undesirable social phenomenon. Therefore, the primary negative inputs (Domestic Violence rates, Antisocial Youth Gang activity and Youth Unemployment) are numerically positive in the associated formulas for flow inputs, but graphically presented as negative inputs. Similarly, the primary positive input (Youth Programs and Services) are numerically negative, but graphically positive.

Conclusion:

It is hypothesised that an increase in social capital, combined with the reducing influence of reforming processes elsewhere in the system, will lead over time to a reduction in Youth Alienation in Bourke (indexed by a reduction in the Juvenile Crime rate).

Introduction

This model demonstrates how youth alienation, community development, intervention and other variables interact with each other. Specifically, how the impact of a community project like Maranguka could positively impact an otherwise declining community in the town of Bourke.

Assumptions

Members of society who are positively engaged in the community will not divert to a negative path.

Variables will remain relatively similar throughout time.

Model explanation

It is evident that without intervention, an already troubled community will continue to travel down a negative path of alienation and poor education, resulting in continued crime and community decline.

However, as stated in KPMG’s report (KPMG, 2018), intervention through community programs, investment and police presence can significantly contribute to student retention and course completion rates, reduced crime and increased employment rates – resulting in self-sufficiency and community uplift. It is therefore suffice to say the benefits of community reinvestment far outweigh the original costs.

References

KPMG, 2018. Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project Impact Assessment. [online] Available at: <https://www.justreinvest.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Maranguka-Justice-Reinvestment-Project-KPMG-Impact-Assessment-FINAL-REPORT.pdf>.