youth-crime | Insight Maker

EFFECTS OF POLICING AND COMMUNITY INVESTMENT ON ADOLESCENTS IN BOURKE

BACKGROUND
The model depicts the community of Bourke, analysing the implications of varying community investment and law enforcement expenditure on crime patterns. In particular, it focuses on youth crime.

The town's initially high crime rates is mostly attributable to its limited activities and remote location. Ultimately, the aim of this model is to show how a manipulation of variables can alter youth crime and other stocks.

ASSUMPTIONS OF THE MODEL

1. Bourke has a population of 3,000 - 1,200 (40%) which make up the youth population, and the remaining 1,800 (60%) is the adult population.

2. Simulation value for community investment is 40%.

3. Simulation value for police officers is 450.

4. The reconviction rate (70%) is assumed to be higher than the conviction rate (60%). This is because we assume that law enforcement will be imposed more strictly to those who have already committed a crime at least once.

5. The ‘Engaged’ rate is assumed to be 80%. Given the lesser presence of youth (1,200) in comparison to adults (1,800), it is more likely that the youth population will be required to engage in ‘Community Engagement Programs’ such as sporting clubs or trade-skills.

6. The ‘Improved Youth’ rate is 80%. This is assumed to be high given the nature of the target study. In short, the youth population will be easier to improve, as opposed to if we were analysing adults.

7. It is assumed that, if convicted, juvenile detention time is six months due to the ‘petty’ nature of youth crimes.

STOCKS

1. Youth population – percentage of youth residing in Bourke.

2. Youth crime – number of people out of the youth population who have committed an offence.

3. Juvenile detention – consequence of committing a crime for youth.

4. Community engagement program – a government expenditure reform that involves providing support to the disadvantaged.

VARIABLES

1. Community investment – effectiveness of the community engagement program implemented by government, (initial simulation value 40, or 40%). This has been applied on a linear basis to flows applicable to ‘Community Engagement Programs’.

2. Police officers – number between 1-1800 out of the adult population who are police officers (initial simulation value 450, or 25%). This value is linked with ‘Law Enforcement’, to which Law Enforcement is applied to Conviction Rates. Law Enforcement is assumed to increase at a decreasing rate due to strong beliefs that there are decreasing marginal benefits in increasing the absolute number of police officers (according to the Law of Diminishing Returns).

HOW TO GET INTERESTING RESULTS

1. At 50% community investment, disengagement is higher than improved youth throughout the study time period. This is interesting because there is a significantly higher amount of ‘Improved Youth’ (80%) compared to ‘Disengaged’ (20%). For that reason, it is surprising that there are more disengaged than improved adolescents in Bourke. However, at 100% community investment, ‘Improved Youth’ outweighs ‘Disengaged’ adolescents.

2. At 50% Police capacity (900 Police Officers), the conviction and reconviction rates are higher than adolescents not being convicted. ‘Convicted’ and ‘Not Convicted’ tend to move more closely together, on an absolute basis, compared to ‘Reconvicted’ and ‘Not Reconvicted’.

Olivia Miu (44909209)

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke - 44909209

Olivia Miu

This model portrays the effects that expenditure on policing and community engagement has on the cycle of crime in the rural town of Bourke. As a town with a high crime rate and an alarming growth of youth individuals participating in a cycle between juvenile detention and petty crime, several solutions have been investigated in order to counteract this issue. These solutions are illustrated in this model.

Underlying Assumptions:

1. The Bourke youth population starts off as 1000 individuals as indicated by their 2016 population.

2. The initial crime rate is 0.5, meaning that 50% of the youth population are at risk of committing petty crime.

3. The jail sentence for any one individual convicted of a petty crime is 6 months.

4. The initial number of people already committing petty crime is 200 youths.

5. The initial number of incarcerated individuals is 100 youths.

6. The town has a certain ratio of which the funding between policing and community engagement can be divided. This means that if a certain percentage of funding is allocated to policing, the remaining is allocated to community engagement expenditure.

Variables

1. Crime rate - the percentage of youth that are at risk of committing petty crime. This is included with a slider as the crime rate within any community fluctuates.

2. Conviction rate - the percentage of youths in policy custody who will be convicted for the petty crime they committed.

3. Recidivism rate - the percentage of youths released from juvenile detention who will commit crime again within the next 6 months. This variable is a constant of 0.7 as confirmed by statistical analysis of the Australian government.

4. Discharge rate- the percentage of convicted youth who are released back into the community. This variable is a constant of 0.5 in this model, meaning that 50% of convicted juveniles are released into the community every 6 months.

Interesting Things to Note

1. A high percentage of police expenditure results in a large number of incarcerated individuals and, after a period of time, an increased number of petty crime and thus low community engagement.

2. A low percentage of police expenditure and thus a higher expenditure of community engagement expenditure results in a low number of incarcerated individuals and a high amount of recreational club members. While community engagement is increased, so is petty crime as a result of low incarceration.

3. A balance between police and community engagement expenditure results in a fluctuating amount of incarceration and a high amount of community engagement. Thus this is the best solution in decreasing crime rates in the town of Bourke.

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke - 44588410

Georgina Humphries

This model mainly describes the situation of juvenile crime in Bourke.

Lack of education among adolescents leads to an increase in juvenile delinquency and eventually becomes a criminal, and these young people are improved through justice reinvestment projects.

the level of education and punishment can affect the number of criminals

the Model of Young community member in Bourke -11678182 Ziwei Zhang

Ziwei Zhang

Bourke is a remote town in NSW with a population of 2634 people. In 2013 crime figures from Bourke showed the highest assault, break-ins and car theft rates in NSW with crime spikes mostly occurring during nights and school holidays. Over the past five years, the Aboriginal Community has come together to trial a model for change, called Just Reinvest.

This model illustrates the relationship between Community Factors (which includes social disadvantage, economic issues, family trauma) on Disengaged Youth, Crime and the impact of the Just Reinvest Program. This model particularly illustrates the complexity of factors on outcomes and how factors are interrelated making crime a wicked problem that is not easily viewed in isolation from the socio-economic and social causes.

Stocks

Youth in Burke is set based on Australian Bureau of Statistics levels but is easily modified to track population changes on modelling

Disengaged Youth are those with problematic behaviour

Crime Levels are those Disengaged Youth who go on to commit a crime

Early Intervention Programs are those run through Just Reinvest as part of the community program - the quantity of these can be adjusted.

Data of Note

- Economic Impact is five times cost of running the program

- Justice Impacts are roughly 66% and Non-Justice Impacts make up the remaining 33%.

Assumptions
While the UN defines "Youth" as 15 - 24 year olds, the KPMG report outlines programs for 10 - 24 year olds therefore in the context of Bourke the 10 - 24 year old age bracket is considered "Youths". This has been rounded to 700 people (ABS 2016 Census).

- It is estmated 70% of Bourke Youths will have problematic behaviour with 50% of those going on to commit a crime and be caught

- Cost of Early Intervention Youth Program is estimated at $100 per person per crime

Conclusion

While this model shows the impacts and benefits of additional funding on early intervention programs and the flow on affects this has on crime, it does not take into account the underlying cultural and social disadvantage issues that are often motivators for crime nor does this model take into account issues such as cultural prejudice and bias, over-policing or additional early intervention methods.

Relationship between Youth Alienation, Police and Community Development in Bourke

Lauren Phillips

This model is intended to make the relation between people in Bourke, crime and the rate of prison committed, these factors are continually influenced by the police, community and education. I simulated the number of criminals, the prison and the addiction.

Bourke's model

Tsolmon Baatartsogt

This model will show how a change in attitude and behavior has reduced the youth crime rate in Bourke

Bourke's Youth Crime Initiative Tina Knopek MKT563 Big Data Analytics

Tina Knopek

youth-crime Models