SIR Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman     A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
SIR Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
This is reproduction of the tutorial exercise 1, Disease Dynamics.
This is reproduction of the tutorial exercise 1, Disease Dynamics.
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
This model simulates a waterborne illness spread from a central reservoir. It illustrates the combination of System Dynamics (modeling pathogen levels in the reservoir) and Agent Based Modeling.    Make sure to check out the Map display to see the geographic clustering of disease incidence around th
This model simulates a waterborne illness spread from a central reservoir. It illustrates the combination of System Dynamics (modeling pathogen levels in the reservoir) and Agent Based Modeling.

Make sure to check out the Map display to see the geographic clustering of disease incidence around the reservoir.
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Aids Patient disease model.
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Aids Patient disease model.
5 months ago
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
This systems model will help students understand the different systems that make up our body and how choices we make can impact how those systems work. Factors are based on daily choices.
This systems model will help students understand the different systems that make up our body and how choices we make can impact how those systems work.
Factors are based on daily choices.
 Ausbreitung von SARS-CoV-19 in verschiedenen Ländern - bitte passen Sie die Variablen über die Schieberegler weiter unten entsprechend an  Italien      ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,228     Faktor der geschätzten unentdeckten Fälle: 4-11     Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 60 000 000     hoher Blut
Ausbreitung von SARS-CoV-19 in verschiedenen Ländern
- bitte passen Sie die Variablen über die Schieberegler weiter unten entsprechend an

Italien

    ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,228
    Faktor der geschätzten unentdeckten Fälle: 4-11
    Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 60 000 000
    hoher Blutdruck: 0,32 (gbe-bund)
    Herzkrankheit: 0,04 (statista)
    kostenlose Intensivstationen: 3 100


Deutschland

    ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,195 (bpb)
    geschätzte unentdeckte Fälle Faktor: 2-3 (deutschlandfunk)
    Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 83 000 000
    hoher Blutdruck: 0,26 (gbe-bund)
    Herzkrankheit: 0,2-0,28 (Herzstiftung)
    kostenlose Intensivstationen: 5 880


Frankreich

    ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,183 (statista)
    Faktor der geschätzten unentdeckten Fälle: 3-5
    Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 67 000 000
    Bluthochdruck: 0,3 (fondation-recherche-cardio-vasculaire)
    Herzkrankheit: 0,1-0,2 (oecd)
    kostenlose Intensivstationen: 3 000


Je nach Bedarf:

    Anzahl der Begegnungen/Tag: 1 = Quarantäne, 2-3 = soziale Distanzierung , 4-6 = erschwertes soziales Leben, 7-9 = überhaupt keine Einschränkungen // Vorgabe 2
    Praktizierte Präventivmassnahmen (d.h. sich regelmässig die Hände waschen, das Gesicht nicht berühren usw.): 0.1 (niemand tut etwas) - 1 (sehr gründlich) // Vorgabe 0.8
    Aufklärung durch die Regierung: 0,1 (sehr schlecht) - 1 (sehr transparent und aufklärend) // Vorgabe 0,9
    Immunitätsrate (aufgrund fehlender Daten): 0 (man kann nicht immun werden) - 1 (wenn man es einmal hatte, wird man es nie wieder bekommen) // Vorgabe 0,4


Schlüssel

    Anfällige: Menschen sind nicht mit SARS-CoV-19 infiziert, könnten aber infiziert werden
    Infizierte: Menschen sind infiziert worden und haben die Krankheit COVID-19
    Geheilte: Die Menschen haben sich gerade von COVID-19 erholt und können es in diesem Stadium nicht mehr bekommen
    Tote: Menschen starben wegen COVID-19
    Immunisierte: Menschen wurden immun und können die Krankheit nicht mehr bekommen
    Kritischer Prozentsatz der Wiederherstellung: Überlebenschance ohne spezielle medizinische Behandlung



 A spatially aware, agent based model of disease spread. There are three classes of people: susceptible (healthy), infected (sick and infectious), and recovered (healthy and temporarily immune).

A spatially aware, agent based model of disease spread. There are three classes of people: susceptible (healthy), infected (sick and infectious), and recovered (healthy and temporarily immune).

A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
Dosage per day, Doses per day, Every ? hours, Medicine in Intestines, Drug absorption, Plasma level, Blood volume, Plasma concentration, ​Toxic level, Medicinal level, Drug excretion, Excretion rate, Half-Life
Dosage per day, Doses per day, Every ? hours, Medicine in Intestines, Drug absorption, Plasma level, Blood volume, Plasma concentration, ​Toxic level, Medicinal level, Drug excretion, Excretion rate, Half-Life
 A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

 SARS-CoV-19 spread  in different countries - please  adjust variables accordingly        Italy     elderly population (>65): 0.228  estimated undetected cases factor: 4-11  starting population size: 60 000 000  high blood pressure: 0.32 (gbe-bund)  heart disease: 0.04 (statista)  free intensive
SARS-CoV-19 spread in different countries
- please adjust variables accordingly

Italy
  • elderly population (>65): 0.228
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 4-11
  • starting population size: 60 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.32 (gbe-bund)
  • heart disease: 0.04 (statista)
  • free intensive care units: 3 100

Germany
  • elderly population (>65): 0.195 (bpb)
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 2-3 (deutschlandfunk)
  • starting population size: 83 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.26 (gbe-bund)
  • heart disease: 0.2-0.28 (herzstiftung)
  • free intensive care units: 5 880

France
  • elderly population (>65): 0.183 (statista)
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 3-5
  • starting population size: 67 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.3 (fondation-recherche-cardio-vasculaire)
  • heart disease: 0.1-0.2 (oecd)
  • free intensive care units: 3 000

As you wish
  • numbers of encounters/day: 1 = quarantine, 2-3 = practicing social distancing, 4-6 = heavy social life, 7-9 = not caring at all // default 2
  • practicing preventive measures (ie. washing hands regularly, not touching your face etc.): 0.1 (nobody does anything) - 1 (very strictly) // default 0.8
  • government elucidation: 0.1 (very bad) - 1 (highly transparent and educating) // default 0.9
  • Immunity rate (due to lacking data): 0 (you can't get immune) - 1 (once you had it you'll never get it again) // default 0.4

Key
  • Healthy: People are not infected with SARS-CoV-19 but could still get it
  • Infected: People have been infected and developed the disease COVID-19
  • Recovered: People just have recovered from COVID-19 and can't get it again in this stage
  • Dead: People died because of COVID-19
  • Immune: People got immune and can't get the disease again
  • Critical recovery percentage: Chance of survival with no special medical treatment
This systems model will help students understand the different systems that make up our body and how choices we make can impact how those systems work. Factors are based on daily choices.
This systems model will help students understand the different systems that make up our body and how choices we make can impact how those systems work.
Factors are based on daily choices.
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
 A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

Dosage per day, Doses per day, Every ? hours, Medicine in Intestines, Drug absorption, Plasma level, Blood volume, Plasma concentration, ​Toxic level, Medicinal level, Drug excretion, Excretion rate, Half-Life
Dosage per day, Doses per day, Every ? hours, Medicine in Intestines, Drug absorption, Plasma level, Blood volume, Plasma concentration, ​Toxic level, Medicinal level, Drug excretion, Excretion rate, Half-Life