World4 is a predictive model for world population. Population has grown hyper-exponentially in the last millenium, with the doubling time decreasing from 900 years in 1000 CE to a minimum of ~35 years in 1963 CE. Technology is defined as that which decreases the death rate and/or increases the effective birth rate (i.e. by decreasing infant mortality). Technology grows exponentially, therefore population fits a hyper-exponential (exponent within an exponent). Models for the end of growth are explored using equations that express the ways humans are depleting Earth's biocapacity, the nature of resource depletion, and the relationship between natural resources and human carrying capacity. This simple model, containing just two closed systems, captures the subtle shifts in the population trajectory of the last 50 years. Specifically, hyperexponential growth has given way to subexponential growth. A peak is predicted for the time around 2028.
[Bystroff, C. (2021). Footprints to singularity: A global population model explains late 20th century slow-down and predicts peak within ten years. PloS one, 16(5), e0247214.]Worl4.6 is a clone of World4.5 for exploring changes. WHat happens if there is a delay in the change of the growth rate? What happens if the fertility rate is a function of resource availability? What happens if climate change causes an increased death rate through catastrophes? What happens if policies are enacted to save wildlife?
World4.6
From Jay Forrester 1971 Book World Dynamics, the earlier, simpler version of the World 3 Limits to Growth Model. adapted from Mark Heffernan's ithink version at Systemswiki.
An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/
Clone of World2 Model of World Dynamics
The limits to growth structure is based on the basic growth structure. And, as should be obvious, nothing grows forever as growth requires resources. Those required resources become a limits to growth.
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Clone of Limits to Growth Archetype
The Limits to Growth Archetype demonstrates the manner in which initial growth may be slowed over time by a limiting factor.
An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/
Clone of Limits to Growth Archetype
The limits to growth structure is based on the basic growth structure. And, as should be obvious, nothing grows forever as growth requires resources. Those required resources become a limits to growth.
Video * Context
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You may also request to join the SystemsWiki Slack group by sending an email to SystemsWiki@gmail.com.
Clone of Limits to Growth Archetype
The limits to growth structure is based on the basic growth structure. And, as should be obvious, nothing grows forever as growth requires resources. Those required resources become a limits to growth.
Video * Context
LinkedIn, Twitter, YouTube
You may also request to join the SystemsWiki Slack group by sending an email to SystemsWiki@gmail.com.
Clone of Clone of Limits to Growth Archetype
From Jay Forrester 1971 Book World Dynamics, the earlier, simpler version of the World 3 Limits to Growth Model. adapted from Mark Heffernan's ithink version at Systemswiki.
Clone of World2 Model of World Dynamics
The limits to growth structure is based on the basic growth structure. And, as should be obvious, nothing grows forever as growth requires resources. Those required resources become a limits to growth. See also
Archetypes.
Video
@LinkedIn, Twitter, YouTube
Clone of Limits to Growth Archetype
From Jay Forrester 1971 Book World Dynamics, the earlier, simpler version of the World 3 Limits to Growth Model. adapted from Mark Heffernan's ithink version at Systemswiki.
An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/
Clone of Model of World Dynamics
The limits to growth structure is based on the basic growth structure. And, as should be obvious, nothing grows forever as growth requires resources. Those required resources become a limits to growth.
Video * Context
LinkedIn, Twitter, YouTube
You may also request to join the SystemsWiki Slack group by sending an email to SystemsWiki@gmail.com.
Clone of Limits to Growth Archetype
From Jay Forrester 1971 Book World Dynamics, the earlier, simpler version of the World 3 Limits to Growth Model. adapted from Mark Heffernan's ithink version at Systemswiki.
An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/
Clone of Model of World Dynamics
From Jay Forrester 1971 Book World Dynamics, the earlier, simpler version of the World 3 Limits to Growth Model. adapted from Mark Heffernan's ithink version at Systemswiki.
An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/
Clone of World2 Model of World Dynamics
From Jay Forrester 1971 Book World Dynamics, the earlier, simpler version of the World 3 Limits to Growth Model. adapted from Mark Heffernan's ithink version at Systemswiki.
An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/
Clone of Model of World Dynamics
The limits to growth structure is based on the basic growth structure. And, as should be obvious, nothing grows forever as growth requires resources. Those required resources become a limits to growth.
Video * Context
LinkedIn, YouTube
Clone of Limits to Growth Archetype
From Jay Forrester 1971 Book World Dynamics, the earlier, simpler version of the World 3 Limits to Growth Model. adapted from Mark Heffernan's ithink version at Systemswiki.
An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/
Clone of Model of World Dynamics
The limits to growth structure is based on the basic growth structure. And, as should be obvious, nothing grows forever as growth requires resources. Those required resources become a limits to growth.
Video * Context
LinkedIn, Twitter, YouTube
You may also request to join the SystemsWiki Slack group by sending an email to SystemsWiki@gmail.com.
Clone of Limits to Growth Archetype
The Limits to Growth Archetype demonstrates the manner in which initial growth may be slowed over time by a limiting factor.
An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/
Clone of Limits to Growth Archetype
The limits to growth structure is based on the basic growth structure. And, as should be obvious, nothing grows forever as growth requires resources. Those required resources become a limits to growth.
Video
@LinkedIn, Twitter, YouTube
Clone of Limits to Growth Archetype
From Jay Forrester 1971 Book World Dynamics, the earlier, simpler version of the World 3 Limits to Growth Model. adapted from Mark Heffernan's ithink version at Systemswiki.
Clone of World2 Model of World Dynamics
The limits to growth structure is based on the basic growth structure. And, as should be obvious, nothing grows forever as growth requires resources. Those required resources become a limits to growth. See also
Archetypes.
Video
This model is part of
And? Understanding Relationships & Their Implications.
Clone of Clone of Limits to Growth
From Jay Forrester 1971 Book World Dynamics, the earlier, simpler version of the World 3 Limits to Growth Model. adapted from Mark Heffernan's ithink version at Systemswiki.
An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/
Simlation Scenario is below:
Scenario2:Natural resources usage normal 1->0.25
Scenario3:Natural resources usage normal 1->0, Pollution normal 1->0.1 or new natural resources usage 0.25->0
World2 Model of World Dynamics with Scenario Description
The limits to growth structure is based on the basic growth structure. And, as should be obvious, nothing grows forever as growth requires resources. Those required resources become a limits to growth.
Video * Context
LinkedIn, Twitter, YouTube
You may also request to join the SystemsWiki Slack group by sending an email to SystemsWiki@gmail.com.
Clone of Limits to Growth Archetype
Limits to Growth/SFD is a segment of Systems Archetypes in the Systemic Perspective Series.
Limits to Growth with Two Limits
From Jay Forrester 1971 Book World Dynamics, the earlier, simpler version of the World 3 Limits to Growth Model. adapted from Mark Heffernan's ithink version at Systemswiki.
Clone of World2 Model of World Dynamics