Public Health Models

These models and simulations have been tagged “Public Health”.

Related tagsCVDDisease Prevention

This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts
20 3 months ago
Relationship between major risk factors, and major diseases
Relationship between major risk factors, and major diseases
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts
11 3 weeks ago
 Increasing demand for unplanned hospital services can be met either by increasing the capacity of hospitals or investing in prevention services, either by Public Health or Primary Care. Historically, justifying this investment has been difficult, with funding discussions focusing on how much can mo
Increasing demand for unplanned hospital services can be met either by increasing the capacity of hospitals or investing in prevention services, either by Public Health or Primary Care. Historically, justifying this investment has been difficult, with funding discussions focusing on how much can money the prevention will save in secondary care, and then the difficulty of releasing that money. However, switching the narrative to one based upon improving health outcomes, and working within the existing capacity of secondary care rather than building new hospitals as the population grows may provide more positive in releasing cash for prevention activity.

Model to quantify the benefit of providing Public Health and Primary Care interventions to reduce the risk of unplanned hospital attendances.​
   Model description:     This model is designed to simulate the Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania by estimating several factors such as exposed population, infection rate, testing rate, recovery rate, death rate and immunity loss. The model also simulates the measures implemented by the governm

Model description: 

This model is designed to simulate the Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania by estimating several factors such as exposed population, infection rate, testing rate, recovery rate, death rate and immunity loss. The model also simulates the measures implemented by the government which will impact on the local infection and economy. 

 

Assumption:

Government policies will reduce the mobility of the population as well as the infection. In addition, economic activities in the tourism and hospitality industry will suffer negative influences from the government measures. However, essential businesses like supermarkets will benefit from the health policies on the contrary.

 

Variables:

Infection rate, recovery rate, death rate, testing rate are the variables to the cases of Covid-19. On the other hand, the number of cases is also a variable to the government policies, which directly influences the number of exposed. 

 

The GDP is dependent on the variables of economic activities. Nonetheless, the government’s lockdown measure has also become the variable to the economic activities. 

 

Interesting insights:

Government policies are effective to curb infection by reducing the number of exposed when the case number is greater than 10. The economy becomes stagnant when the case spikes up but it climbs up again when the number of cases is under control. 

8 months ago
This is a population model designed for local health and care systems (United Kingdom). This model does not simulation male/female, but rather everyone in 5-year age groups.    Need to replace rates with converter holding rates over time.
This is a population model designed for local health and care systems (United Kingdom). This model does not simulation male/female, but rather everyone in 5-year age groups.

Need to replace rates with converter holding rates over time.
10 3 weeks ago
This is a population model designed for local health and care systems (United Kingdom). This model does not simulation male/female, but rather everyone in 5-year age groups.
This is a population model designed for local health and care systems (United Kingdom). This model does not simulation male/female, but rather everyone in 5-year age groups.
18 3 weeks ago
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts
28 8 months ago
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts.    This is the fourth and final developmental component of Module 2. The population progression through health states is complete.
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts.

This is the fourth and final developmental component of Module 2. The population progression through health states is complete.
38 8 months ago
This is a systems model that allows groups of professionals to discuss 'prevention at scale' opportunities and the implications of numbers 'needed to treat' in any local population. In terms of public health interventions this equates to reach, compliance and efficacy, which are usually lower than o
This is a systems model that allows groups of professionals to discuss 'prevention at scale' opportunities and the implications of numbers 'needed to treat' in any local population. In terms of public health interventions this equates to reach, compliance and efficacy, which are usually lower than one might suspect.
Economic
collapse, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause,
in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most
fracking companies have never achieved a   free cash flow   (made a profit)
since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an
Economic collapse, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an already very weak  and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture.  As events unfold in the next few months,  we may discover that it is too late to act,  that our reign on this planet has, indeed,  come to an abrupt end?  
This is a systems model that allows groups of professionals to discuss 'prevention at scale' opportunities and the implications of numbers 'needed to treat' in any local population. In terms of public health interventions this equates to reach, compliance and efficacy, which are usually lower than o
This is a systems model that allows groups of professionals to discuss 'prevention at scale' opportunities and the implications of numbers 'needed to treat' in any local population. In terms of public health interventions this equates to reach, compliance and efficacy, which are usually lower than one might suspect.
 Modelling prevalence of cardiovascular disease within a population using agent based modelling. The initial population is defined within Tools->Variables and macros.     This is a partial model that is not yet complete.
Modelling prevalence of cardiovascular disease within a population using agent based modelling. The initial population is defined within Tools->Variables and macros.

This is a partial model that is not yet complete.
10 months ago
Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause,
in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most
fracking companies have never achieved a   free cash flow   (made a profit)
since the fracking boom started in 2008, but th
Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an already very weak  and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture.  As events unfold in the next few months,  we may discover that it is too late to act,  that our reign on this planet has, indeed,  come to an abrupt end?  
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts
9 months ago
Training model for systems dynamic modelling course
Training model for systems dynamic modelling course
9 months ago
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts
9 months ago
Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause,
in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most
fracking companies have never achieved a   free cash flow   (made a profit)
since the fracking boom started in 2008, but th
Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an already very weak  and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture.  As events unfold in the next few months,  we may discover that it is too late to act,  that our reign on this planet has, indeed,  come to an abrupt end?  
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts.    This is the third developmental component of Module 2.
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts.

This is the third developmental component of Module 2.
8 months ago
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts
31 9 months ago
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts