Prof. Dr. Paulo Villela

This model is based on the paper by Crokidakis, Nuno. (2020). *Data analysis and modeling of the evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil*. For further details, see the full paper here.

In addition to modeling a COVID-19 transmission system in Brazil, it shows the conversion of the system of differential equations into a stock-and-flow diagram.

Jay Forrester's major contribution was to propose a new language—System Dynamics—to represent systems of differential equations, which constitutes its solid mathematical foundation, developed by Newton and Leibniz in the 17th century.

Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.

We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in

Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure

With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.

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