Community Models
These models and simulations have been tagged “Community”.
An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) Researchgate link and eolss synopsis based on LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction to Urban Dynamics 1976. Also p 195 (Dynamo Model Listing).
An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/
Purpose of the model
To show the impact of increasing number of active police and increase development programs in order to lessen crime in the city of Bourke.
3000 residents in Bourke
4.37% of the population is consider to be At Risk
STOCKS
AT RISK INDIVIDUALS
Individuals who committed a crime
CRIME
Includes Domestic violence and Petty Crimes.
JAIL
Once an At Risk Individual is convicted of their crime they get sent to this.
COMMUNITY PROGRAM
Where at risk individuals can register and commit to a community program.
NOT AT RISK INDIVIDUALS
Once an at risk individual completes the community Program
VARIABLES
LGA COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT FUNDING
Amount of funding that can be used to increase Police Units, or improve the community Program
POLICE UNITS
Amount of Police that are active in Bourke at a given time
CONVICTIONS
Conviction rate depends on the amount of active police.
PROGRAM COMPLETION RATE
Program completion depends on the amount of Funding it gets
SET NUMBERS
Total population of Bourke is 3000 as seen here.
Total Number of At Risk Individuals is collected at a research conducted by BOCSAR.
At risk individuals include crimes such as Domestic Violence, Robbery, Break and enter dwelling, Break and enter non-dwelling
Suggested Settings.
Maxing one slider while the other is at its minimum value, to show which gives a bigger impact
Maxing Both sliders to show how it affects the crime rate.
Both sliders at its minimum value to show how crime rates would react.
Assignment Four - Big Data & Marketing Analytics MKT563
Student No : 94040609
Trish Anderson
The Maranguka Justice Reinvestment (JR) project is a community led program that demonstrates how the redirection of government funding into community programs can address underlying issues which lead to crime in the community (KPMG, 2018). This interactive model shows how the redirection of funding from the Justice System into Community Programs improves the rate of year 12 graduates, reduces the number of incidents of domestic violence whilst reducing the number of days spent in custody. This model also shows how investment in Community Programs leads to positive economic impacts for the Community as well as cost savings for the Justice System over time.
One of the key findings of the Maranguka JP project found that redirecting funding from the Justice system into the Community has multiple benefits. This model begins with NSW government funding on a scale from 0 to 1000 which can be adjusted using the sliders based on available funding, sliding the scale to the right increases the available funding. The % Community Funding and % Justice System Funding variables can then be adjusted in the sliders to determine how much of the funding goes to the community as a percentage and how much of the available funding gets allocated to the justice system.
Investment into Community Programs is made available by the investments into the Bourke community. Community Leaders in the Bourke Community develop programs and each program has shown to have a positive impact on the number of students graduating year 12 in the community, the number of domestic violence incidents and the number of days spent in custody.
Variables
The current number of Year 12 graduates, the current number of domestic violence incidents and the current number of days in Custody are input into the sliders on the hand panel and the model simulation will show how these figures are impacted through investment in the community over time. These variables also contribute to the growth of Youth Development, Family Strength and Adult Empowerment in the community. These factors result in reinvestment opportunities, which have positive economic impacts on the community. Savings are also passed back to the justice system as underlying issues in the community are addressed over time.
The slider scale on the right hand panel uses six adjustable variables to model how the rate of investment in the community can impact the rate of positive impacts in the community and the rate of reinvestment opportunities that can be achieved. Running the simulation will show the larger the % of Community Funding, the faster the results can be seen over time and the greater the economic impact and justice system savings will be. The smaller the % Community Funding will show how impacts are still positive but occur over a longer period of time.
% Community Funding and % Justice System are a percentage of funding whereas NSW Government Funding is represented in dollars ($). NSW Government Funding is on a scale from 0 to 1000 but the assumed scale is $000’s, where 1,000 equals $1,000,000.
Parameter Settings
With community funding, the amount of Year 12 graduates increases by 31% (KPMG, 2018)
With community funding, the number of Domestic Violence incidents decreases by 23% (KPMG, 2018) (KPMG, 2018)
With community funding, the number of days spent in custody decreases by 42% KPMG, 2018)
Reinvestment opportunities contribute to 1/3 of economic impacts back the community where 2/3 of the reinvestment opportunities contribute to savings within the Justice System KPMG, 2018).
Assumptions
The rate of impact on year 12 graduating students, Domestic Violence Incidents and Days spent in custody changes at the same rate of % Community Funding available to the community.
References
Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. (Thompson, G). abc.net.au.
KPMG. (2018). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project Impact Assessment. Retrieved from https://www.justreinvest.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Maranguka-Justice-Reinvestment-Project-KPMG-Impact-Assessment-FINAL-REPORT.pdf
