These models and simulations have been tagged “Community”.
An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) Researchgate link and eolss synopsis based on LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction to Urban Dynamics 1976. Also p 195 (Dynamo Model Listing).
An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/
HOW A NEW COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT INITATIVE MAY IMPACT YOUTH
CRIME IN THE TOWN OF BOURKE, NSW
MKT563 Assessment 4:
Aim of Simulation:
Bourke is a
town in which Youth are involved in high rates of criminal behaviour (Thompson,
2016). This simulation focuses on how
implementation of a community engagement initiative may impact crime patterns
of youths in Bourke. The specific aim is to assess whether the town
should initiate a program such as the Big Brothers Big Sisters Community-Based
Mentoring (CBM) (Blueprints for Healthy Youth
2018) program to reduce crime and antisocial behaviour (National Institute of
Justice, n.d). Big Brothers Big Sisters
is a community mentoring program which matches a volunteer adult mentor to an
at-risk child or adolescent to delay or reduce antisocial behaviours; improve
academic success, attitudes and behaviours, peer and family relationships;
strength self-concept; and provide social and cultural enrichment (Blueprints for Healthy Youth Development, 2018).
InsightMaker model is used to simulate the influence of Big Brothers Big
Sisters Initiative on Criminal Behaviour (leading to 60% juvenile detention
rates) with variables including participation
rate and also drug and alcohol use.
1/ ‘Youth’ are
defined, for statistical purposes, as those persons between the ages of 15 and
24 (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, n.d).
population (15 – 24 years) makes up 14.1% of the total population of LGA Bourke
which according to the most up-to-date freely available Census data (2008) is
3091 (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2010).
Therefore, youth population has been calculated as 435 individuals.
3/ Big Brothers
Big Sisters Program is assumed to impact LGA Bourke in a similar manner that
has been shown in previous studies (Tierney, Grossman, and Resch, 2000) where
initiative showed mentored youths in the program were 46% significantly less
likely to initiate drug use and 27 percent less likely to initiate alcohol use,
compared to control. They were 32 less
likely to have struct someone during the previous 12 months. Compared to control group, the mentored
youths earned higher grades, skipped fewer classes and fewer days of school and
felt more competent about doing their schoolwork (non-significant). Research also found that mentored youths,
compared with control counterparts, displayed significantly better
relationships with parents. Emotional
support among peers was higher than controls.
Population = 435
Behaviour = 100
40% of youth
population who commit a crime are non-convicted
60% of youth
population who commit a crime are convicted
20% of youth
involved in the Big Brothers Big Sisters Initiative are non-engaged
80% of youth
involved in the Big Brothers Big Sisters Initiative are engaged
include ‘Participation Rate’ and ‘Drug and Alcohol Usage’. These variables can be adjusted as these
levels may be able to be impacted by other initiatives which the community can
assess for introduction; these variables may also change in terms of rate over
As can be
seen by increasing the rate of participation to 90% we can see juvenile
detention rate decreases with engagement (even with the 20% non-engagement of
youths involved in program). By moving
the slider to 10% participation however you can see the criminal behaviour
simulation, we can clearly see that the community of Bourke would benefit in
terms of the Big Brothers Big Sisters Initiative decreasing criminal behaviour
in youths (15 – 24 years of age) over a 5-year timeframe. Further investigation regarding expenditure
and logistics to implement such a program is warranted based on the simulation
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2010).
Census Data for Bourke LGA.
Retrieved from www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/LGA11150Population/People12002-2006?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=LGA11150&issue=2002-2006
Blueprints for Healthy Youth Development. (2018).
Big Brothers Big
Sisters of America Blueprints Program Rating: Promising, viewed 26 May
Institute of Justice. (n.d.). Program Profile: Big Brothers Big Sisters
(BBBS) Community-Based Mentoring (CBM) Program,
viewed 26th May 2018, <https://www.crimesolutions.gov/ProgramDetails.aspx?ID=112>
Tierney, J.P., Grossman, J.B., and
Resch, N.L. (2000). Making a Difference: An Impact Study of Big Brothers/Big Sisters.
Philadelphia, Pa.: Public/Private Ventures.
Thompson, G. (2016) Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach
is saving young people from a life of crime. Retrieved from < www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114>
United Nations Department
of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA).
(n.d.). Definition of Youth,
viewed 24th May 2018, www.un.org/esa/socdev/documents/youth/fact-sheets/youth-definition.pdf
There are two Variables involved in the model
1. Police Enforcement
It measures how effectively and efficiently police go about fulfilling its duties; Identifying potential criminals and stopping them from committing crime and punishing criminal who are guilty.
2. Community Development
Community development intervenes by changing the mindset of alienated and rehabilitated youth and hence affecting the flow towards Social Interactive Activities.
Police enforcement can be adjusted using the slider given below. There is no choice given to adjust community development as it is affected by various factors of the society; education, culture, morals etc.
Youth engaged in Social Interactive Activities can never become alienated and hence will not go to drugs. In other words, a socially interactive youth member will be engaged in sports, education, gaming or café rather than drugs.
Youth are defined as ages 15-24, comprising of a population of 80. (ABS, 2016)
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). General Community Profile. (Cat. No. 2001.0). https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/communityprofile/LGA11150?opendocument