This simple model demonstrates logistic growth.The differential equation looks like y'(t)=by(t)(1-y(t)/K) where K is the carrying capacity of the quantity y. Alternatively, y'(t)=by(t) - b/K*y(t)^2 so the growth term suggests exponential growth, but there is a loss term is of the form b/K y(t
Mat375 Math Modeling
This simple model demonstrates logistic growth.The differential equation looks like

y'(t)=by(t)(1-y(t)/K)

where K is the carrying capacity of the quantity y. Alternatively,

y'(t)=by(t) - b/K*y(t)^2

so the growth term suggests exponential growth, but there is a loss term is of the form b/K y(t) -- loss is proportional to population (crowding).

A comparable Mathematica file is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/LogisticGrowth-and-DecayModel.nb
Clone of Logistic Growth
Jacob Adkins
The basic model of Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators ( Tyson, et al.) demonstrates logistic growth in prey, and in predator (with prey dependence for carrying capacity). But interestingly, one possibility is limit cycles, which mimic the
Mat375 Math Modeling
The basic model of Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators (Tyson, et al.) demonstrates logistic growth in prey, and in predator (with prey dependence for carrying capacity). But interestingly, one possibility is limit cycles, which mimic the cycling of the populations in nature.

The differential equations for the population of hare (x) is

x'(t) = rx(1-x/K)
            - gamma x^2/(x^2+eta^2)
            - alpha y x/(x+mu)

where K is the logistic carrying capacity of the prey (hare), in the absence of predation; the second term is a "generalist predation" term;  and the third term is the "specialist predation" (in the limit as the prey gets big, this becomes simply proportional to y (the lynx population)).

The differential equations for the population of lynx (y) is

y'(t) = sy(1- qy/x) = sy - sqy^2/x

for the predator (lynx), which is essentially logistic growth. Its growth term suggests exponential growth, but there is a loss term of the form sqy^2/x -- loss is proportional to population (crowding), and inversely proportional to prey density. As the hare population goes to zero, so shall the lynx....

As one can see, the prey density won't change if y=x/q. If the prey density were not changing at the same time, the system would be at equilibrium.

In this InsightMaker model, I scaled the second equation by multiplying by q, then replace y by w=qy throughout both equations. This requires a slight change in the prey equation -- alpha replaced by the ratio of alpha/q.  (I used my favorite mathematical trick, of multiplying by the appropriate form of 1!)

So what we're really looking at here is the system

x'(t) = rx(1-x/K)
            - gamma x^2/(x^2+eta^2)
            - alpha/q w x/(x+mu)
w'(t) = sw(1- w/x)

where w(t)=qy(t).

Tyson, et al. took q to be about 212 for hare and lynx -- so that it requires about 212 hare to allow for one lynx to survive at "equilibrium".

However, when alpha -- the hares/lynx/year -- gets sufficiently large (e.g. 1867 -- and that does seem like a lot of hares per lynx per year...:), limit cycles develop (rather than a stable equilibrium). This means that the populations oscillate about the equilibrium values, rather than stabilize at those values.

Author: Andy Long, Northern Kentucky University (2020)

Reference: Tyson, Rebecca, Sheena Haines,  Karen Hodges. Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators. Theoretical Ecology. 3, 97–111 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-009-0057-1

Resource: A comparable Mathematica model can be found at  http://ceadserv1.nku.edu/longa//classes/mat375/days/Mathematica/BasicModel.nb,
which allows one to experiment a little more easily than one can with this InsightMaker model.
Clone of Basic Model, Tyson Lynx and Hare
Jon Ford
Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19. With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease. We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured
Mat375 SIR Math Modeling COVID-19 Coronavirus SIRD
Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.

We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in

Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure

With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.

Resources:
Clone of Coronavirus: A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) with death
Кузнецов Иван
The basic model of Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators ( Tyson, et al.) demonstrates logistic growth in prey, and in predator (with prey dependence for carrying capacity). But interestingly, one possibility is limit cycles, which mimic the
Math Modeling Mat375
The basic model of Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators (Tyson, et al.) demonstrates logistic growth in prey, and in predator (with prey dependence for carrying capacity). But interestingly, one possibility is limit cycles, which mimic the cycling of the populations in nature.

The differential equations for the population of hare (x) is

x'(t) = rx(1-x/K)
            - gamma x^2/(x^2+eta^2)
            - alpha y x/(x+mu)

where K is the logistic carrying capacity of the prey (hare), in the absence of predation; the second term is a "generalist predation" term;  and the third term is the "specialist predation" (in the limit as the prey gets big, this becomes simply proportional to y (the lynx population)).

The differential equations for the population of lynx (y) is

y'(t) = sy(1- qy/x) = sy - sqy^2/x

for the predator (lynx), which is essentially logistic growth. Its growth term suggests exponential growth, but there is a loss term of the form sqy^2/x -- loss is proportional to population (crowding), and inversely proportional to prey density. As the hare population goes to zero, so shall the lynx....

As one can see, the prey density won't change if y=x/q. If the prey density were not changing at the same time, the system would be at equilibrium.

In this InsightMaker model, I scaled the second equation by multiplying by q, then replace y by w=qy throughout both equations. This requires a slight change in the prey equation -- alpha replaced by the ratio of alpha/q.  (I used my favorite mathematical trick, of multiplying by the appropriate form of 1!)

So what we're really looking at here is the system

x'(t) = rx(1-x/K)
            - gamma x^2/(x^2+eta^2)
            - alpha/q w x/(x+mu)
w'(t) = sw(1- w/x)

where w(t)=qy(t).

Tyson, et al. took q to be about 212 for hare and lynx -- so that it requires about 212 hare to allow for one lynx to survive at "equilibrium".

However, when alpha -- the hares/lynx/year -- gets sufficiently large (e.g. 1867 -- and that does seem like a lot of hares per lynx per year...:), limit cycles develop (rather than a stable equilibrium). This means that the populations oscillate about the equilibrium values, rather than stabilize at those values.

Author: Andy Long, Northern Kentucky University (2020)

Reference: Tyson, Rebecca, Sheena Haines,  Karen Hodges. Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators. Theoretical Ecology. 3, 97–111 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-009-0057-1

Resource: A comparable Mathematica model can be found at  http://ceadserv1.nku.edu/longa//classes/mat375/days/Mathematica/BasicModel.nb,
which allows one to experiment a little more easily than one can with this InsightMaker model.
Clone of Basic Model, Tyson Lynx and Hare
Proctor Mercer
The basic model of Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators ( Tyson, et al.) demonstrates logistic growth in prey, and in predator (with prey dependence for carrying capacity). But interestingly, one possibility is limit cycles, which mimic the
Mat375 Math Modeling
The basic model of Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators (Tyson, et al.) demonstrates logistic growth in prey, and in predator (with prey dependence for carrying capacity). But interestingly, one possibility is limit cycles, which mimic the cycling of the populations in nature.

The differential equations for the population of hare (x) is

x'(t) = rx(1-x/K)
            - gamma x^2/(x^2+eta^2)
            - alpha y x/(x+mu)

where K is the logistic carrying capacity of the prey (hare), in the absence of predation; the second term is a "generalist predation" term;  and the third term is the "specialist predation" (in the limit as the prey gets big, this becomes simply proportional to y (the lynx population)).

The differential equations for the population of lynx (y) is

y'(t) = sy(1- qy/x) = sy - sqy^2/x

for the predator (lynx), which is essentially logistic growth. Its growth term suggests exponential growth, but there is a loss term of the form sqy^2/x -- loss is proportional to population (crowding), and inversely proportional to prey density. As the hare population goes to zero, so shall the lynx....

As one can see, the prey density won't change if y=x/q. If the prey density were not changing at the same time, the system would be at equilibrium.

In this InsightMaker model, I scaled the second equation by multiplying by q, then replace y by w=qy throughout both equations. This requires a slight change in the prey equation -- alpha replaced by the ratio of alpha/q.  (I used my favorite mathematical trick, of multiplying by the appropriate form of 1!)

So what we're really looking at here is the system

x'(t) = rx(1-x/K)
            - gamma x^2/(x^2+eta^2)
            - alpha/q w x/(x+mu)
w'(t) = sw(1- w/x)

where w(t)=qy(t).

Tyson, et al. took q to be about 212 for hare and lynx -- so that it requires about 212 hare to allow for one lynx to survive at "equilibrium".

However, when alpha -- the hares/lynx/year -- gets sufficiently large (e.g. 1867 -- and that does seem like a lot of hares per lynx per year...:), limit cycles develop (rather than a stable equilibrium). This means that the populations oscillate about the equilibrium values, rather than stabilize at those values.

Author: Andy Long, Northern Kentucky University (2020)

Reference: Tyson, Rebecca, Sheena Haines,  Karen Hodges. Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators. Theoretical Ecology. 3, 97–111 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-009-0057-1

Resource: A comparable Mathematica model can be found at  http://ceadserv1.nku.edu/longa//classes/mat375/days/Mathematica/BasicModel.nb,
which allows one to experiment a little more easily than one can with this InsightMaker model.
Clone of Basic Model, Tyson Lynx and Hare
Andrew E Long
This simple model demonstrates logistic growth.The differential equation looks like y'(t)=by(t)(1-y(t)/K) where K is the carrying capacity of the quantity y. Alternatively, y'(t)=by(t) - b/K*y(t)^2 so the growth term suggests exponential growth, but there is a loss term is of the form b/K y(t
Math Modeling Mat375
This simple model demonstrates logistic growth.The differential equation looks like

y'(t)=by(t)(1-y(t)/K)

where K is the carrying capacity of the quantity y. Alternatively,

y'(t)=by(t) - b/K*y(t)^2

so the growth term suggests exponential growth, but there is a loss term is of the form b/K y(t) -- loss is proportional to population (crowding).

A comparable Mathematica file is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/LogisticGrowth-and-DecayModel.nb
Clone of Clone of Clone of Logistic Growth
Adheke Silas
The basic model of Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators ( Tyson, et al.) demonstrates logistic growth in prey, and in predator (with prey dependence for carrying capacity). But interestingly, one possibility is limit cycles, which mimic the
Math Modeling Mat375
The basic model of Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators (Tyson, et al.) demonstrates logistic growth in prey, and in predator (with prey dependence for carrying capacity). But interestingly, one possibility is limit cycles, which mimic the cycling of the populations in nature.

The differential equations for the population of hare (x) is

x'(t) = rx(1-x/K)
            - gamma x^2/(x^2+eta^2)
            - alpha y x/(x+mu)

where K is the logistic carrying capacity of the prey (hare), in the absence of predation; the second term is a "generalist predation" term;  and the third term is the "specialist predation" (in the limit as the prey gets big, this becomes simply proportional to y (the lynx population)).

The differential equations for the population of lynx (y) is

y'(t) = sy(1- qy/x) = sy - sqy^2/x

for the predator (lynx), which is essentially logistic growth. Its growth term suggests exponential growth, but there is a loss term of the form sqy^2/x -- loss is proportional to population (crowding), and inversely proportional to prey density. As the hare population goes to zero, so shall the lynx....

As one can see, the prey density won't change if y=x/q. If the prey density were not changing at the same time, the system would be at equilibrium.

In this InsightMaker model, I scaled the second equation by multiplying by q, then replace y by w=qy throughout both equations. This requires a slight change in the prey equation -- alpha replaced by the ratio of alpha/q.  (I used my favorite mathematical trick, of multiplying by the appropriate form of 1!)

So what we're really looking at here is the system

x'(t) = rx(1-x/K)
            - gamma x^2/(x^2+eta^2)
            - alpha/q w x/(x+mu)
w'(t) = sw(1- w/x)

where w(t)=qy(t).

Tyson, et al. took q to be about 212 for hare and lynx -- so that it requires about 212 hare to allow for one lynx to survive at "equilibrium".

However, when alpha -- the hares/lynx/year -- gets sufficiently large (e.g. 1867 -- and that does seem like a lot of hares per lynx per year...:), limit cycles develop (rather than a stable equilibrium). This means that the populations oscillate about the equilibrium values, rather than stabilize at those values.

Author: Andy Long, Northern Kentucky University (2020)

Reference: Tyson, Rebecca, Sheena Haines,  Karen Hodges. Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators. Theoretical Ecology. 3, 97–111 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-009-0057-1

Resource: A comparable Mathematica model can be found at  http://ceadserv1.nku.edu/longa//classes/mat375/days/Mathematica/BasicModel.nb,
which allows one to experiment a little more easily than one can with this InsightMaker model.
Clone of Basic Model, Tyson Lynx and Hare
Jacob Adkins
Insight diagram
Math Modeling Mat375 SIR
Часть 2 Туберкулез
Салимбек Рахманкулов
4 2 weeks ago
The basic model of Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators ( Tyson, et al.) demonstrates logistic growth in prey, and in predator (with prey dependence for carrying capacity). But interestingly, one possibility is limit cycles, which mimic the
Math Modeling Mat375
The basic model of Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators (Tyson, et al.) demonstrates logistic growth in prey, and in predator (with prey dependence for carrying capacity). But interestingly, one possibility is limit cycles, which mimic the cycling of the populations in nature.

The differential equations for the population of hare (x) is

x'(t) = rx(1-x/K)
            - gamma x^2/(x^2+eta^2)
            - alpha y x/(x+mu)

where K is the logistic carrying capacity of the prey (hare), in the absence of predation; the second term is a "generalist predation" term;  and the third term is the "specialist predation" (in the limit as the prey gets big, this becomes simply proportional to y (the lynx population)).

The differential equations for the population of lynx (y) is

y'(t) = sy(1- qy/x) = sy - sqy^2/x

for the predator (lynx), which is essentially logistic growth. Its growth term suggests exponential growth, but there is a loss term of the form sqy^2/x -- loss is proportional to population (crowding), and inversely proportional to prey density. As the hare population goes to zero, so shall the lynx....

As one can see, the prey density won't change if y=x/q. If the prey density were not changing at the same time, the system would be at equilibrium.

In this InsightMaker model, I scaled the second equation by multiplying by q, then replace y by w=qy throughout both equations. This requires a slight change in the prey equation -- alpha replaced by the ratio of alpha/q.  (I used my favorite mathematical trick, of multiplying by the appropriate form of 1!)

So what we're really looking at here is the system

x'(t) = rx(1-x/K)
            - gamma x^2/(x^2+eta^2)
            - alpha/q w x/(x+mu)
w'(t) = sw(1- w/x)

where w(t)=qy(t).

Tyson, et al. took q to be about 212 for hare and lynx -- so that it requires about 212 hare to allow for one lynx to survive at "equilibrium".

However, when alpha -- the hares/lynx/year -- gets sufficiently large (e.g. 1867 -- and that does seem like a lot of hares per lynx per year...:), limit cycles develop (rather than a stable equilibrium). This means that the populations oscillate about the equilibrium values, rather than stabilize at those values.

Author: Andy Long, Northern Kentucky University (2020)

Reference: Tyson, Rebecca, Sheena Haines,  Karen Hodges. Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators. Theoretical Ecology. 3, 97–111 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-009-0057-1

Resource: A comparable Mathematica model can be found at  http://ceadserv1.nku.edu/longa//classes/mat375/days/Mathematica/BasicModel.nb,
which allows one to experiment a little more easily than one can with this InsightMaker model.
Clone of Basic Model, Tyson Lynx and Hare
Jon Ford
This simple model demonstrates logistic growth.The differential equation looks like y'(t)=by(t)(1-y(t)/K) where K is the carrying capacity of the quantity y. Alternatively, y'(t)=by(t) - b/K*y(t)^2 so the growth term suggests exponential growth, but there is a loss term is of the form b/K y(t
Mat375 Math Modeling
This simple model demonstrates logistic growth.The differential equation looks like

y'(t)=by(t)(1-y(t)/K)

where K is the carrying capacity of the quantity y. Alternatively,

y'(t)=by(t) - b/K*y(t)^2

so the growth term suggests exponential growth, but there is a loss term is of the form b/K y(t) -- loss is proportional to population (crowding).

A comparable Mathematica file is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/LogisticGrowth-and-DecayModel.nb
Clone of Logistic Growth
Andrew E Long
This is a first example of a simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model. There are three pools of individuals: those who are infected (without them, no disease!), the pool of those who are at risk (susceptible), and the recovered -- who may lose their immunity and become susceptible again
Math Modeling Mat375 SIR
This is a first example of a simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model.

There are three pools of individuals: those who are infected (without them, no disease!), the pool of those who are at risk (susceptible), and the recovered -- who may lose their immunity and become susceptible again.

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel.nb

Clone of A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) Example
Thomas Hedlund Leijon
Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19. With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease. We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured
Mat375 SIR Math Modeling COVID-19 Coronavirus SIRD
Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.

We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in

Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure

With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.

Resources:
Clone of Coronavirus: A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) with death
Dias Kasymbekov
8 months ago
The basic model of Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators ( Tyson, et al.) demonstrates logistic growth in prey, and in predator (with prey dependence for carrying capacity). But interestingly, one possibility is limit cycles, which mimic the
Math Modeling Mat375
The basic model of Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators (Tyson, et al.) demonstrates logistic growth in prey, and in predator (with prey dependence for carrying capacity). But interestingly, one possibility is limit cycles, which mimic the cycling of the populations in nature.

The differential equations for the population of hare (x) is

x'(t) = rx(1-x/K)
            - gamma x^2/(x^2+eta^2)
            - alpha y x/(x+mu)

where K is the logistic carrying capacity of the prey (hare), in the absence of predation; the second term is a "generalist predation" term;  and the third term is the "specialist predation" (in the limit as the prey gets big, this becomes simply proportional to y (the lynx population)).

The differential equations for the population of lynx (y) is

y'(t) = sy(1- qy/x) = sy - sqy^2/x

for the predator (lynx), which is essentially logistic growth. Its growth term suggests exponential growth, but there is a loss term of the form sqy^2/x -- loss is proportional to population (crowding), and inversely proportional to prey density. As the hare population goes to zero, so shall the lynx....

As one can see, the prey density won't change if y=x/q. If the prey density were not changing at the same time, the system would be at equilibrium.

In this InsightMaker model, I scaled the second equation by multiplying by q, then replace y by w=qy throughout both equations. This requires a slight change in the prey equation -- alpha replaced by the ratio of alpha/q.  (I used my favorite mathematical trick, of multiplying by the appropriate form of 1!)

So what we're really looking at here is the system

x'(t) = rx(1-x/K)
            - gamma x^2/(x^2+eta^2)
            - alpha/q w x/(x+mu)
w'(t) = sw(1- w/x)

where w(t)=qy(t).

Tyson, et al. took q to be about 212 for hare and lynx -- so that it requires about 212 hare to allow for one lynx to survive at "equilibrium".

However, when alpha -- the hares/lynx/year -- gets sufficiently large (e.g. 1867 -- and that does seem like a lot of hares per lynx per year...:), limit cycles develop (rather than a stable equilibrium). This means that the populations oscillate about the equilibrium values, rather than stabilize at those values.

Author: Andy Long, Northern Kentucky University (2020)

Reference: Tyson, Rebecca, Sheena Haines,  Karen Hodges. Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators. Theoretical Ecology. 3, 97–111 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-009-0057-1

Resource: A comparable Mathematica model can be found at  http://ceadserv1.nku.edu/longa//classes/mat375/days/Mathematica/BasicModel.nb,
which allows one to experiment a little more easily than one can with this InsightMaker model.
Clone of Basic Model, Tyson Lynx and Hare
Jacob Adkins
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale. It was "cloned" from a model that InsightMaker provides to its users, at https://insightmaker.com/insight/2068/Isle-Royale-Predator-Prey-Interactions Thanks Scott Fortmann-Roe.
Ecology Populations Environment Math Modeling Mat375
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale. It was "cloned" from a model that InsightMaker provides to its users, at
https://insightmaker.com/insight/2068/Isle-Royale-Predator-Prey-Interactions
Thanks Scott Fortmann-Roe.

I've created a Mathematica file that replicates the model, at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker.nb

It allows one to experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.

I used steepest descent in Mathematica to optimize the parameters, with my objective data being the ratio of wolves to moose. You can try my (admittedly) kludgy code, at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker-BestFit.nb

{WolfBirthRateFactorStart,
WolfDeathRateStart,
MooseBirthRateStart,
MooseDeathRateFactorStart,
moStart,
woStart} =
{0.000267409,
0.239821,
0.269755,
0.0113679,
591,
23.};

Clone of Isle Royale: Predator/Prey Model for Moose and Wolves
Padma Visvanathan
Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19. With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease. We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured
Coronavirus SIR Math Modeling Mat375 COVID-19 SIRD
Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.

We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in

Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure

With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.

Resources:
Clone of Coronavirus: A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) with death
Cameron Demler
The basic model of Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators ( Tyson, et al.) demonstrates logistic growth in prey, and in predator (with prey dependence for carrying capacity). But interestingly, one possibility is limit cycles, which mimic the
Math Modeling Mat375
The basic model of Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators (Tyson, et al.) demonstrates logistic growth in prey, and in predator (with prey dependence for carrying capacity). But interestingly, one possibility is limit cycles, which mimic the cycling of the populations in nature.

The differential equations for the population of hare (x) is

x'(t) = rx(1-x/K)
            - gamma x^2/(x^2+eta^2)
            - alpha y x/(x+mu)

where K is the logistic carrying capacity of the prey (hare), in the absence of predation; the second term is a "generalist predation" term;  and the third term is the "specialist predation" (in the limit as the prey gets big, this becomes simply proportional to y (the lynx population)).

The differential equations for the population of lynx (y) is

y'(t) = sy(1- qy/x) = sy - sqy^2/x

for the predator (lynx), which is essentially logistic growth. Its growth term suggests exponential growth, but there is a loss term of the form sqy^2/x -- loss is proportional to population (crowding), and inversely proportional to prey density. As the hare population goes to zero, so shall the lynx....

As one can see, the prey density won't change if y=x/q. If the prey density were not changing at the same time, the system would be at equilibrium.

In this InsightMaker model, I scaled the second equation by multiplying by q, then replace y by w=qy throughout both equations. This requires a slight change in the prey equation -- alpha replaced by the ratio of alpha/q.  (I used my favorite mathematical trick, of multiplying by the appropriate form of 1!)

So what we're really looking at here is the system

x'(t) = rx(1-x/K)
            - gamma x^2/(x^2+eta^2)
            - alpha/q w x/(x+mu)
w'(t) = sw(1- w/x)

where w(t)=qy(t).

Tyson, et al. took q to be about 212 for hare and lynx -- so that it requires about 212 hare to allow for one lynx to survive at "equilibrium".

However, when alpha -- the hares/lynx/year -- gets sufficiently large (e.g. 1867 -- and that does seem like a lot of hares per lynx per year...:), limit cycles develop (rather than a stable equilibrium). This means that the populations oscillate about the equilibrium values, rather than stabilize at those values.

Author: Andy Long, Northern Kentucky University (2020)

Reference: Tyson, Rebecca, Sheena Haines,  Karen Hodges. Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators. Theoretical Ecology. 3, 97–111 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-009-0057-1

Resource: A comparable Mathematica model can be found at  http://ceadserv1.nku.edu/longa//classes/mat375/days/Mathematica/BasicModel.nb,
which allows one to experiment a little more easily than one can with this InsightMaker model.
Clone of Basic Model, Tyson Lynx and Hare
Jon Ford
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale. It was "cloned" from a model that InsightMaker provides to its users, at https://insightmaker.com/insight/2068/Isle-Royale-Predator-Prey-Interactions Thanks Scott Fortmann-Roe.
Ecology Populations Environment Math Modeling Mat375
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale. It was "cloned" from a model that InsightMaker provides to its users, at
https://insightmaker.com/insight/2068/Isle-Royale-Predator-Prey-Interactions
Thanks Scott Fortmann-Roe.

I've created a Mathematica file that replicates the model, at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker.nb

It allows one to experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.

I used steepest descent in Mathematica to optimize the parameters, with my objective data being the ratio of wolves to moose. You can try my (admittedly) kludgy code, at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker-BestFit.nb

{WolfBirthRateFactorStart,
WolfDeathRateStart,
MooseBirthRateStart,
MooseDeathRateFactorStart,
moStart,
woStart} =
{0.000267409,
0.239821,
0.269755,
0.0113679,
591,
23.};

Clone of Isle Royale: Predator/Prey Model for Moose and Wolves
Padma Visvanathan
The basic model of Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators ( Tyson, et al.) demonstrates logistic growth in prey, and in predator (with prey dependence for carrying capacity). But interestingly, one possibility is limit cycles, which mimic the
Mat375 Math Modeling
The basic model of Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators (Tyson, et al.) demonstrates logistic growth in prey, and in predator (with prey dependence for carrying capacity). But interestingly, one possibility is limit cycles, which mimic the cycling of the populations in nature.

The differential equations for the population of hare (x) is

x'(t) = rx(1-x/K)
            - gamma x^2/(x^2+eta^2)
            - alpha y x/(x+mu)

where K is the logistic carrying capacity of the prey (hare), in the absence of predation; the second term is a "generalist predation" term;  and the third term is the "specialist predation" (in the limit as the prey gets big, this becomes simply proportional to y (the lynx population)).

The differential equations for the population of lynx (y) is

y'(t) = sy(1- qy/x) = sy - sqy^2/x

for the predator (lynx), which is essentially logistic growth. Its growth term suggests exponential growth, but there is a loss term of the form sqy^2/x -- loss is proportional to population (crowding), and inversely proportional to prey density. As the hare population goes to zero, so shall the lynx....

As one can see, the prey density won't change if y=x/q. If the prey density were not changing at the same time, the system would be at equilibrium.

In this InsightMaker model, I scaled the second equation by multiplying by q, then replace y by w=qy throughout both equations. This requires a slight change in the prey equation -- alpha replaced by the ratio of alpha/q.  (I used my favorite mathematical trick, of multiplying by the appropriate form of 1!)

So what we're really looking at here is the system

x'(t) = rx(1-x/K)
            - gamma x^2/(x^2+eta^2)
            - alpha/q w x/(x+mu)
w'(t) = sw(1- w/x)

where w(t)=qy(t).

Tyson, et al. took q to be about 212 for hare and lynx -- so that it requires about 212 hare to allow for one lynx to survive at "equilibrium".

However, when alpha -- the hares/lynx/year -- gets sufficiently large (e.g. 1867 -- and that does seem like a lot of hares per lynx per year...:), limit cycles develop (rather than a stable equilibrium). This means that the populations oscillate about the equilibrium values, rather than stabilize at those values.

Author: Andy Long, Northern Kentucky University (2020)

Reference: Tyson, Rebecca, Sheena Haines,  Karen Hodges. Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators. Theoretical Ecology. 3, 97–111 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-009-0057-1

Resource: A comparable Mathematica model can be found at  http://ceadserv1.nku.edu/longa//classes/mat375/days/Mathematica/BasicModel.nb,
which allows one to experiment a little more easily than one can with this InsightMaker model.
Clone of Basic Model, Tyson Lynx and Hare
Jon Ford
This simple model demonstrates exponential growth or decay in a population. A comparable Mathematica file is at http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/ExponentialGrowth-and-DecayModel.nb
Math Modeling Mat375
This simple model demonstrates exponential growth or decay in a population.

A comparable Mathematica file is at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/ExponentialGrowth-and-DecayModel.nb
Clone of Exponential Growth
Kimmy
The basic model of Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators ( Tyson, et al.) demonstrates logistic growth in prey, and in predator (with prey dependence for carrying capacity). But interestingly, one possibility is limit cycles, which mimic the
Mat375 Math Modeling
The basic model of Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators (Tyson, et al.) demonstrates logistic growth in prey, and in predator (with prey dependence for carrying capacity). But interestingly, one possibility is limit cycles, which mimic the cycling of the populations in nature.

The differential equations for the population of hare (x) is

x'(t) = rx(1-x/K)
            - gamma x^2/(x^2+eta^2)
            - alpha y x/(x+mu)

where K is the logistic carrying capacity of the prey (hare), in the absence of predation; the second term is a "generalist predation" term;  and the third term is the "specialist predation" (in the limit as the prey gets big, this becomes simply proportional to y (the lynx population)).

The differential equations for the population of lynx (y) is

y'(t) = sy(1- qy/x) = sy - sqy^2/x

for the predator (lynx), which is essentially logistic growth. Its growth term suggests exponential growth, but there is a loss term of the form sqy^2/x -- loss is proportional to population (crowding), and inversely proportional to prey density. As the hare population goes to zero, so shall the lynx....

As one can see, the prey density won't change if y=x/q. If the prey density were not changing at the same time, the system would be at equilibrium.

In this InsightMaker model, I scaled the second equation by multiplying by q, then replace y by w=qy throughout both equations. This requires a slight change in the prey equation -- alpha replaced by the ratio of alpha/q.  (I used my favorite mathematical trick, of multiplying by the appropriate form of 1!)

So what we're really looking at here is the system

x'(t) = rx(1-x/K)
            - gamma x^2/(x^2+eta^2)
            - alpha/q w x/(x+mu)
w'(t) = sw(1- w/x)

where w(t)=qy(t).

Tyson, et al. took q to be about 212 for hare and lynx -- so that it requires about 212 hare to allow for one lynx to survive at "equilibrium".

However, when alpha -- the hares/lynx/year -- gets sufficiently large (e.g. 1867 -- and that does seem like a lot of hares per lynx per year...:), limit cycles develop (rather than a stable equilibrium). This means that the populations oscillate about the equilibrium values, rather than stabilize at those values.

Author: Andy Long, Northern Kentucky University (2020)

Reference: Tyson, Rebecca, Sheena Haines,  Karen Hodges. Modelling the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare population cycle: The role of specialist predators. Theoretical Ecology. 3, 97–111 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-009-0057-1

Resource: A comparable Mathematica model can be found at  http://ceadserv1.nku.edu/longa//classes/mat375/days/Mathematica/BasicModel.nb,
which allows one to experiment a little more easily than one can with this InsightMaker model.
Clone of Basic Model, Tyson Lynx and Hare
Jon Ford
Insight diagram
Mat375 SIR Math Modeling COVID-19 Coronavirus SIRD
Perkembangan Kasus PMK (Penyakit Mulut dan Kuku) pada Hewan Ternak di Pulau Lombok, Nusa Tenggara Barat
SEPTIAN EKA RAHMADI
9 months ago
Thanks to https://insightmaker.com/insight/25229/SIR-model-with-stochastic-events for this example of adding stochasticity to the SIR model. "A simple extension of the tutorial SIR example, adding in Poisson events for infection and recovery. There is one macro, RandPoissonStep(rate)... to simulate
SIR Stochastic Math Modelling Math Modeling
Thanks to
https://insightmaker.com/insight/25229/SIR-model-with-stochastic-events
for this example of adding stochasticity to the SIR model. "A simple extension of the tutorial SIR example, adding in Poisson events for infection and recovery. There is one macro, RandPoissonStep(rate)... to simulate Poisson processes."

I've tried to add in the infection step, as well as turn numbers into integers (without much luck). But it certainly has some interesting dynamics! I've also added in a phase plane graphic.
Clone of SIR model with stochastic events
Kyra Evers
4 months ago
Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19. With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease. We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured
Mat375 SIR Math Modeling COVID-19 Coronavirus SIRD
Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.

We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in

Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure

With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.

Resources:
Clone of Coronavirus: A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) with death
Mitch Daniels
10 months ago
This is a first example of a simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model. There are three pools of individuals: those who are infected (without them, no disease!), the pool of those who are at risk (susceptible), and the recovered -- who may lose their immunity and become susceptible again
Math Modeling Mat375 SIR
This is a first example of a simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model.

There are three pools of individuals: those who are infected (without them, no disease!), the pool of those who are at risk (susceptible), and the recovered -- who may lose their immunity and become susceptible again.

A comparable model in Mathematica is available at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel.nb

Clone of A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) Example
Wang Hongjun