From Jay Forrester 1988 killian lectures youtube  video  describing system dynamics at MIT. For Concepts See  IM-185226 . For more detailed biography See Jay Forrester memorial  webpage  For MIT HIstory see  IM-184930
From Jay Forrester 1988 killian lectures youtube video describing system dynamics at MIT. For Concepts See IM-185226. For more detailed biography See Jay Forrester memorial webpage For MIT HIstory see IM-184930
 The dynamics of methadone treatment for intravenous opioid users. The major flows in this study were people cycling between being on methadone and off treatment.  Monograph pdf

The dynamics of methadone treatment for intravenous opioid users. The major flows in this study were people cycling between being on methadone and off treatment. Monograph pdf

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Lincoln Chafee. The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: ​http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf
This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Lincoln Chafee. The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: ​http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf
           This version of the   CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATION   model has been further calibrated (additional calibration phases will occur as better standardized data becomes available).  Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format.  Re
This version of the CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATION model has been further calibrated (additional calibration phases will occur as better standardized data becomes available).  Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format.  Relative magnitudes and durations of impact remain in need of further data & adjustment (calibration). In the interests of maintaining steady progress and respecting budget & time constraints, significant simplifying assumptions have been made: assumptions that mitigate both completeness & accuracy of the outputs.  This model meets the criteria for a Capability demonstration model, but should not be taken as complete or realistic in terms of specific magnitudes of effect or sufficient build out of causal dynamics.  Rather, the model demonstrates the interplay of a minimum set of causal forces on a net student progress construct -- as informed and extrapolated from the non-causal research literature.
Provided further interest and funding, this  basic capability model may further de-abstracted and built out to: higher provenance levels -- coupled with increased factorization, rigorous causal inclusion and improved parameterization.
WIP based on Mascia2017 Analyzing conservation strategies  article  and other mostly private insights. A more detailed form of structure agency  IM-1163
WIP based on Mascia2017 Analyzing conservation strategies article and other mostly private insights. A more detailed form of structure agency IM-1163
There have now been a number of scientific
research papers that confirm that an increase in the access to firearms leads
to an increase of gun violence. Here is what one research paper concluded:

  ''Results.  Gun
ownership was a significant predictor of firearm homicide rates (incidence rate
ratio
There have now been a number of scientific research papers that confirm that an increase in the access to firearms leads to an increase of gun violence. Here is what one research paper concluded:

''Results. Gun ownership was a significant predictor of firearm homicide rates (incidence rate ratio = 1.009; 95% confidence interval = 1.004, 1.014). This model indicated that for each percentage point increase in gun ownership, the firearm homicide rate increased by 0.9%.''

In 2011 there were 11, 101 people that died because of gun violence in the US. However, during the same period only 17 died from acts of terrorism. The Casual Loop Diagram tries to illustrate the process and dynamic that could be behind this unacceptably high number of victims. Is there not a moral dimension to this horrific number of victims that demands immediate action to disrupt this vicious reinforcing circle?

URL of the study:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3828709/

Based on Gunderson Holling and Light. Barriers and Bridges to the Renewal of Ecosystems and Institutions book Columbia University Press 1995. esp Fig 12.1 p499 Table 12.1 p 502 and FIg 12.4 p 521 and  IM-11581  Managing mess
Based on Gunderson Holling and Light. Barriers and Bridges to the Renewal of Ecosystems and Institutions book Columbia University Press 1995. esp Fig 12.1 p499 Table 12.1 p 502 and FIg 12.4 p 521 and IM-11581 Managing mess
This model represents the core (more connected) assumptions of the proposed energy bill HR 4286
This model represents the core (more connected) assumptions of the proposed energy bill HR 4286
A structure used in childhood obesity intervention mechanisms, currently a map WIP which can be enhanced into a simulation
A structure used in childhood obesity intervention mechanisms, currently a map WIP which can be enhanced into a simulation
WIP Summary of Science 2019  article  Dryzek The crisis of democracy and the science of deliberation
WIP Summary of Science 2019 article Dryzek The crisis of democracy and the science of deliberation
Diagrams from David Collingridge and Colin Reeve's Book Fig 1 and 2 Over-critical and Under-critical models. Challenge: combine into a single CLD.  See also  cognitive dissonance IM
Diagrams from David Collingridge and Colin Reeve's Book Fig 1 and 2 Over-critical and Under-critical models. Challenge: combine into a single CLD. 
 An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) Conference version at  http://bit.ly/HlxtZj   and LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction to

An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) Conference version at http://bit.ly/HlxtZj  and LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction to Urban Dynamics 1974 p 195.

An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/

WIP Summary of Davies 2017  article  from special Theory Culture and Society issue on Elites and Power after Financialization
WIP Summary of Davies 2017 article from special Theory Culture and Society issue on Elites and Power after Financialization
11 months ago
           This version of the   CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATION   model has been further calibrated (additional calibration phases will occur as better standardized data becomes available).  Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format.  Re
This version of the CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATION model has been further calibrated (additional calibration phases will occur as better standardized data becomes available).  Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format.  Relative magnitudes and durations of impact remain in need of further data & adjustment (calibration). In the interests of maintaining steady progress and respecting budget & time constraints, significant simplifying assumptions have been made: assumptions that mitigate both completeness & accuracy of the outputs.  This model meets the criteria for a Capability demonstration model, but should not be taken as complete or realistic in terms of specific magnitudes of effect or sufficient build out of causal dynamics.  Rather, the model demonstrates the interplay of a minimum set of causal forces on a net student progress construct -- as informed and extrapolated from the non-causal research literature.
Provided further interest and funding, this  basic capability model may further de-abstracted and built out to: higher provenance levels -- coupled with increased factorization, rigorous causal inclusion and improved parameterization.
           Despite a mature field of inquiry, frustrated educational policy makers face a crisis characterized by little to no clear research-based guidance and significant budget limitations --  in the face of too often marginal or unexpectedly deleterious achievement impacts. As such, education pe
Despite a mature field of inquiry, frustrated educational policy makers face a crisis characterized by little to no clear research-based guidance and significant budget limitations --  in the face of too often marginal or unexpectedly deleterious achievement impacts. As such, education performance has been acknowledged as a complex system and a general call in the literature for causal models has been sounded. This modeling effort represents a strident first step in the development of an evidence-based causal hypothesis: an hypothesis that captures the widely acknowledged complex interactions and multitude of cited influencing factors. This non-piecemeal, causal, reflection of extant knowledge engages a neuro-cognitive definition of students.  Through capture of complex dynamics, it enables comparison of different mixes of interventions to estimate net academic achievement impact for the lifetime of a single cohort of students. Results nominally capture counter-intuitive unintended consequences: consequences that too often render policy interventions effete. Results are indexed on Hattie Effect Sizes, but rely on research identified causal mechanisms for effect propagation. Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format.  Relative magnitudes of impact have been  roughly adjusted to Hattie Ranking Standards (calibration): a non-causal evidence source. This is a demonstration model and seeks to exemplify content that would be engaged in a full or sufficient model development effort.  Budget & time constraints required significant simplifying assumptions. These assumptions mitigate both the completeness & accuracy of the outputs. Features serve to symbolize & illustrate the value and benefits of causal modeling as a performance tool.
 An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) Conference version at  http://bit.ly/HlxtZ j  and LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction to

An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) Conference version at http://bit.ly/HlxtZj  and LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction to Urban Dynamics 1974 p 195.

   ​The probability density function (PDF) of the normal distribution or Bell Curve of Normal or Gaussian Distribution is the mean or expectation of the distribution (and also its median and mode).        The parameter is its standard deviation with its variance then, A random variable with a Gaussi
​The probability density function (PDF) of the normal distribution or Bell Curve of Normal or Gaussian Distribution is the mean or expectation of the distribution (and also its median and mode). 

The parameter is its standard deviation with its variance then, A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.
However, those who enjoy upskirts are called deviants and have a variable distribution :) 

A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.

If mu = 0 and sigma = 1

If the Higher Education Numbers Are Increased then the group decision making ability of society would be raised above that of a middle teenager as it is now
BUT 
Governments can control children by using bad parenting techniques, pandering to the pleasure principle, so they will make higher education more and more difficult as they are doing


85% of the population has a qualification level equal or below a 12th grader, 17 year old ... the chance of finding someone with any sense is low (~1 in 6) and the outcome of them being chosen by those who are uneducated in the policies they are to decide is even more rare !!!

Experience means little if you don't have enough brain to analyse it

Democracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives.   National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.

Democracy:  Where a group allows the decision ability of a teenager to decide on a choice of mis-representatives who are unqualified to make judgement on social policies that affect the lives of millions.
The kind of children who would vote for King Kong who can hold a girl in one hand and swat fighter jets out of teh sky off the tallest building, doesn't have a brain cell or thought to call his own but has a nice smile and offers little girls sweets.


updated 16/3/2020 from 4 years 3 months ago