Simple Health Care Supply and Demand Interactions

John Kingdon's Theory of Streams in the politics of the policy process. From the book Kingdon, John (1999) Agendas Alternatives and Public Policies. Longman New York. Click on View Story at the bottom left.

From Fig.1 Communication for Social Change: An Integrated Model for Measuring the Process and Its Outcomes/Maria Elena Figueroa et al (2002) paper 

Simplest ED Model for Daily ED Performance with 1 ED area rather than 2 in IM-10571. Currently runs over a weekend and calibrated roughly to Weekend Data.Ward net discharges are extended in IM-12414. This insight IM-11936 is the Master Version with the story added. The previous running model, now without a story, is at IM-11079

This is a first attempt at identifying the actors that may need to be involved in the development of the model - at one stage or other.

Rich picture version of Causal loop diagram based on Jack  Homer's paper Worker burnout: a dynamic model with implications  for prevention and control System Dynamics Review 1985 1(1)42-62 See IM-333 for the Simulation model and IM-2178 for a related Causal Loop Diagram of Project Turnover

 

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus 

A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models. See also Complex Decision Technologies IM

Simple Bass diffusion modified from Sterman Business Dynamics Ch9. Compare with the SI infectious disease model Insight 584.

An example to illustrate how a large proportion of a healthcare system could be modelled

Causal loop diagram of the dynamics of emergency and elective admissions competing for vacant ward beds in a hospital. From

Lane, David C. and Monefeldt, C. and Rosenhead, Jonathan (2000) Looking in the wrong place for healthcare improvements: a system dynamics study of an accident and emergency department.  Journal of the Operational Research Society, 51 (5). pp. 518-531. ISSN 0160-5682 

See IM-7981 for Simulation Model

This is a high level system dynamics model which is built to determine the dynamic relationships of the FSA and Followups capacity. Therefore, it can help clinicians to find out the optimistic method in order to reduce the waiting list. At past clinicians were seeing more FSA patients, however, after few months, the followups patients overwhelmed the clinics. Therefore waiting list has been built up again. By running this model, clinicians can find out the balanced leverage point(s). New Model has been developed, this is a very draft model.

Decision making accuracy depends on ecological validity of indicator uses and subjective use of cues (fallible tangible indicators) Extended to clinical risk and action in IM-62657 See medical decision making 2016 article abstract

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0. Compare with Bass Diffusion Model IM-610

Clusters of interacting methods for improving health services network design and delivery. Includes Forrester quotes on statistical vs SD methods and the Modeller's dilemma. Simplified version of IM-14982 combined with IM-17598 and IM-9773

Multiple control mechanisms applied to a services framework See also Service delivery governance constraints IM-3542

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

Jack Homer's model via ithink and Mark Heffernan.  From Jack's  paper Worker burnout: a dynamic model with implications  for prevention and control System Dynamics Review 1985 1(1)42-62. See IM-641 for the Causal loop diagram

Suicide Prevention   Initial version  revised according to Mark heffernan's ithink  model May 2016 and a person centred view added see also version 3

A simple generic rich picture view of interactions among concerned people with needs services and resources and abilities (including learning), which can be used as a pattern for many individual health care insights.

Bond Graph Kinetic Modeling Metabolic Map by J LeFevre  http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2004/SDS_2004/PAPERS/379LEFEV.pdf

See also IM-857 and IM-2235 for more detail

WIP map of ebola in west Africa based on African Affairs Article and SEIR framework

Based on Psychological Medicine Dec 2015 article Depression as a systemic syndrome: mapping the feedback loops of major depressive disorder by A. K. Wittenborn, H. Rahmandad, J. Rick and N. Hosseinichimeh, mentioned here. See also 2018 N. Hosseinichimeh Plos ONE article for rumination focussed SD simulation

Addition of two extra articles on specific nicotine  dependence (addiction and habituation) with conceptual maps to initial version