Simple Health Care Supply and Demand Interactions

John Kingdon's Theory of Streams in the politics of the policy process. From the book Kingdon, John (1999) Agendas Alternatives and Public Policies. Longman New York. Click on View Story at the bottom left.

Simplest ED Model for Daily ED Performance with 1 ED area rather than 2 in IM-10571. Currently runs over a weekend and calibrated roughly to Weekend Data.Ward net discharges are extended in IM-12414. This insight IM-11936 is the Master Version with the story added. The previous running model, now without a story, is at IM-11079

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0. Compare with Bass Diffusion Model IM-610

Causal loop diagram of the dynamics of emergency and elective admissions competing for vacant ward beds in a hospital. From

Lane, David C. and Monefeldt, C. and Rosenhead, Jonathan (2000) Looking in the wrong place for healthcare improvements: a system dynamics study of an accident and emergency department.  Journal of the Operational Research Society, 51 (5). pp. 518-531. ISSN 0160-5682 

See IM-7981 for Simulation Model

This is a first attempt at identifying the actors that may need to be involved in the development of the model - at one stage or other.

A general stock flow map of flows between hospital and the community, with more detail for hospital inpatient flows. An expanded version of IM-622

Simple Bass diffusion modified from Sterman Business Dynamics Ch9. Compare with the SI infectious disease model Insight 584.

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus 

Created in James Madison University's ISAT 341 Simulation and Modeling course by Joseph Straub and Andrew Funkhouser. Based on Mark Heffernan's Glucose-Insulin Insight Maker

Glucose Insulin Model Info:

Translated from Hormone.stm in Dynamic Modeling in the Health Sciences James L hargrove, Springer 1998, Ch 24 p255-261, by Mark Heffernan.

Multiple control mechanisms applied to a services framework See also Service delivery governance constraints IM-3542

An example to illustrate how a large proportion of a healthcare system could be modelled

Clusters of interacting methods for improving health services network design and delivery. Includes Forrester quotes on statistical vs SD methods and the Modeller's dilemma. Simplified version of IM-14982 combined with IM-17598 and IM-9773

WIP From  zenker 2007 article PLoS Computational Biology From Inverse Problems in Mathematical Physiology to Quantitative Differential Diagnoses

Replaced by IM-752 Causal Loop Rich Picture unfolding from Repenning, N. and J. Sterman (2002). Capability Traps and Self-Confirming Attribution Errors in the Dynamics of Process Improvement. Administrative Science Quarterly, 47: 265 - 295. http://jsterman.scripts.mit.edu/docs/Repenning-2002-CapabilityTraps.pdf

From Adapting ‘Agility’ to Healthcare Service Delivery, by Tom Rust, Khalid Saeed, Isa Bar-On, Oleg Pavlov Paper from July 2013 System dynamics Conference Cambridge MA and also 2012 Conference paper  Could be extended by adding dynamics described in going solid insight

Technology learning curve calculations see IM-614 for wider technology and healthcare costs context

Extension of IM-7981 with dynamics of daily ward discharges and did not waits. For an adjusted bed capacity stock see IM-14144.For backlog and services see IM-8382

Addition of two extra articles on specific nicotine  dependence (addiction and habituation) with conceptual maps to initial version

A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models. See also Complex Decision Technologies IM

From Fig.1 Communication for Social Change: An Integrated Model for Measuring the Process and Its Outcomes/Maria Elena Figueroa et al (2002)  paper (may need free registration)

Sources of Policy Resistance. From article Sterman, John D.  Learning from Evidence in a Complex World Am J Public Health 2006 96: 505-514. See also fighting complexity IM-1955

Decision making accuracy depends on ecological validity of indicator uses and subjective use of cues (fallible tangible indicators) Extended to clinical risk and action in IM-62657 See medical decision making 2016 article abstract

How many hospital beds will we need over the next 20 years? WIP based on HDWA work esp Compile14. A top down approach from the state level.