WIP Ideas from Science Special Issue May 2014

Here we have modified the SIR model of Insight 584 by adding an additional stock of Exposed people, who become Infective after an incubation period.

This is a systems model that allows groups of professionals to discuss 'prevention at scale' opportunities and the implications of numbers 'needed to treat' in any local population. In terms of public health interventions this equates to reach, compliance and efficacy, which are usually lower than one might suspect.

Gavan Lintern's Decision Ladder of Cognitive states and processes associated with the Ladder of Inference IM-351 

Suicide Prevention stock flow and feedback map with unfolding story, revised with ideation, intent and lethality and multiple attempts (according to Mark Heffernan's ithink  model May 2016) and an initial person as agent centred view added See  Initial version and next version 3

Minimal model of glucose kinetics by Bergman, used to calculate insulin sensitivity from an Intravenous Glucose Tolerance Test (IVGTT). Plasma insulin I(t) enters a remote compartment X(t) where it is active in accelerating glucose G(t) disappearance into the periphery and liver, and inhibiting hepatic glucose production. Adapted from Minimal Models for Glucose and Insulin Kinetics: A Matlab implementation by Natal van Riel, Eindhoven University of Technology 2004 by Mark Heffernan.

The Dynamics of Human Service Delivery General Theory from the Book by Levin, Roberts, Hirsch et al. Ballinger 1975 ISBN 0-88410-132-0 See IM-621 for rich picture version

An initial stock-flow feedback map with unfolding story about Suicide Prevention that resulted in a national and regional simulation. See revised version insight

Hannon and Ruth Modeling Dynamic Biological Systems p67 adapted to Bond Graph Kinetic Modeling Metabolic Map Alternate Layout of insight IM-857 Here Join and Split Flows are unfolded rather than using folders around the Stocks.

From Adapting ‘Agility’ to Healthcare Service Delivery, by Tom Rust, Khalid Saeed, Isa Bar-On, Oleg Pavlov Paper from July 2013 System dynamics Conference Cambridge MA and also 2012 Conference paper  Could be extended by adding dynamics described in going solid insight

Replaced by IM-752 Causal Loop Rich Picture unfolding from Repenning, N. and J. Sterman (2002). Capability Traps and Self-Confirming Attribution Errors in the Dynamics of Process Improvement. Administrative Science Quarterly, 47: 265 - 295. http://jsterman.scripts.mit.edu/docs/Repenning-2002-CapabilityTraps.pdf

A general stock flow map of flows between hospital and the community, with more detail for hospital inpatient flows. An expanded version of IM-622

Created in James Madison University's ISAT 341 Simulation and Modeling course by Joseph Straub and Andrew Funkhouser. Based on Mark Heffernan's Glucose-Insulin Insight Maker

Glucose Insulin Model Info:

Translated from Hormone.stm in Dynamic Modeling in the Health Sciences James L hargrove, Springer 1998, Ch 24 p255-261, by Mark Heffernan.

Adapted from Fig.5, from Ana V Diez Roux (2011) Complex Systems Thinking May Help Us Transcend Current Impasses in Health Disparities Research Am J Public Health 2011;101 1627-1634  http://ajph.aphapublications.org/cgi/content/abstract/101/9/1627?etoc

A generic stock and flow map of Cancer Screening and Treatment. See also IM-1525 for a specific Prostate PSA Map and Reference  See IM-107014 for a more detailed prostate cancer specific map 

Simplest ED Model for Weekend  ED Performance with 1 ED area IM-11079  Ward net discharges are extended with Ward and Waitlist inflow and outflow details (informed by IM-7981) WIP

This map is a WIP derived from the MIT D-memo 4641 presentation by Nelson Repenning 1996 and the paper "Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened: Creating and Sustaining Process Improvement" by Nelson P. Repenning and John D Sterman. http://bit.ly/jCXGKL See Insight 9781 for a simulation of this model. This map adds additional features mentioned in the article to the bare bones simulation in IM-9781

Extension of IM-7981 with dynamics of daily ward discharges and did not waits. For an adjusted bed capacity stock see IM-14144.For backlog and services see IM-8382

Jones AP, Homer JB, Murphy DL, Essien JDK, Milstein B, Seville DA.

Understanding diabetes population dynamics through simulation modeling

and experimentation. American Journal of Public Health 2006;96(3):488-494.

http://ajph.aphapublications.org/cgi/content/abstract/96/3/488

WIP Stock Flow representation of Panarchy Adaptive Cycles

Sources of Policy Resistance. From article Sterman, John D.  Learning from Evidence in a Complex World Am J Public Health 2006 96: 505-514. See also fighting complexity IM-1955

This simulation is far from complete.

From FIg.2 Past the Tipping Point:THe Persistence of Firefighting in Product Development by Nelson Repenning, Paulo Goncalves and Laura Black. Calif. Mgt. Review 43(4) p44-63 (2001). Also  From William E. Novak and  Linda Levine CMU SEI Sept 2010 Success in Acquisition: Using Archetypes to Beat the Odds paper and see webpage