How many hospital beds will we need over the next 20 years? WIP based on HDWA work esp Compile14. A top down approach from the state level.

A stock flow structure used to investigate interventions to improve the monthly patterns of patient flows through hospitals. Simplest structure to explain IM-10386 Expanded in IM-13966

Simplest ED Model for Daily ED Performance with 1 ED area rather than 2 in IM-10571. Currently runs over a weekend and calibrated roughly to Weekend Data.Ward net discharges are extended in IM-12414. The Master Version of this, with the story added is at IM-11936 Resplit into 2 areas at IM-15023

From fighting lions (fight or flight) to fighting feedbacks in complex systems. A single person cutting the Gordian knot to the dynamic complexity of rubik's cube. Think of multiple players with multiple misperceptions of the faces on the cube and conflicting goals about what the desired solution is. Worse still, without an accepted framework we dont even know if it's a cube or another structure. See also policy resistance IM-697

A simplified dynamic model, adapted from Engineering perspectives on healthcare delivery: Can we afford technological innovation in healthcare? Rouse, William B Systems Research and Behavioral Science 2009 Vol 26 (5) p573-582 abstract  Developed by Mark Heffernan. Addition of learning curve effects IM-614 to Insight 435

Simple rich picture causal loop diagram of single and double loop learning including experiential learning concepts. Launchpad for Learning

Gavan Lintern's Decision Ladder of Cognitive states and processes associated with the Ladder of Inference IM-351 

From Jennifer Prah Ruger (2010) Health Capability Conceptualization and Operationalization Am J Public Health 100 p41-49 available from SSRN  Extended slightly in IM-791 so use of this is deprecated.

Detail from Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment(PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: A hybrid technique formalization article. See full overview at  insight 

Michael Marmot's Eur J Epidemiol Essay 2017 See also IM-62760  Social determinants of health from Michael Marmot's  ABC 2016 Boyer Lectures on Social Justice and the Health Gap

Based on Psychological Medicine Dec 2015 article Depression as a systemic syndrome: mapping the feedback loops of major depressive disorder by A. K. Wittenborn, H. Rahmandad, J. Rick and N. Hosseinichimeh, mentioned here. See also 2018 N. Hosseinichimeh Plos ONE article for rumination focussed SD simulation

Showing how multiple effect loops for private patients in public hospitals can be represented as a causal loop diagram (CLD)

Overview of Beyond Pleasure and Pain: How Motivation Works Book by E Tory Higgins OUP (2011). See also the value experience IM-2804 and Regret IM-15680

Based on Ransohoff DF, McNaughton Collins M, Fowler FJ. Why is prostate cancer screening so common when the evidence is so uncertain? A system without negative feedback. Am J Med. 2002;113:663-7. See IM-15991 for a generic Stock Flow Map

WIP ​Based on TAble 1 Jackson 2014 article

An initial stock-flow feedback map with unfolding story about Suicide Prevention that resulted in a national and regional simulation. See revised version insight

Major stocks and flows of Erythropoiesis and Erythropoiesis Stimulating Agents (ESA) Dosing in Anemia due to Renal Failure from Jim Rogers. See Simulation Insight

Addition of two extra articles on specific nicotine  dependence (addiction and habituation) with conceptual maps to initial version

Gross theory of emotion regulation from Saras Chung ISDC 2015  Abstract 

From Brown and Heathcote's 2008 Paper on the simplest model of Choice ResponseTime , a Tutorial paper and a Workload capacity paper that estimates drift rate v for individuals with single and multiple targets

The dynamics of methadone treatment for intravenous opioid users. The major flows in this study were people cycling between being on methadone and off treatment. This is a minimal model of the insights from the more detailed modelling project described in Chalmers J, Ritter A, Heffernan M, McDonnell G. Modelling pharmacotherapy maintenance in Australia. A report prepared for the Australian National Council on Drugs. Sydney: Drug Policy Modelling Program, University of New South Wales; 2009 

A work in progress model for ED hourly arrival flows based on reported statistics by triage category with individual triage categories dis-aggregated using vectors. Based on a hospital performance report from  http://www.bhi.nsw.gov.au/publications/hospital_quarterly_3 

Split of IM-2166

WIP Understanding pathways to observed effects complex causation Pathways Moving to Opportunity NYC example from Nate Osgood's big data lecture youtube video Feb 2017 Sydney.