From fighting lions (fight or flight) to fighting feedbacks in complex systems. A single person cutting the Gordian knot to the dynamic complexity of rubik's cube. Think of multiple players with multiple misperceptions of the faces on the cube and conflicting goals about what the desired solution is. Worse still, without an accepted framework we dont even know if it's a cube or another structure. See also policy resistance IM-697
Fighting complexity
How many hospital beds will we need over the next 20 years? WIP based on HDWA work esp Compile14. A top down approach from the state level.
Hospital Network Capacity Planning
An example of why it's so critical to understand where the boundaries are when considering a system. Go to Gene's version insight
Clone of Hospital Early Discharge Boundaries (Old version)
WIP for LHN Individual Hospital O Month of October 2013 linking monthly NWAUs and same and overnight activities from ED and Elective Surgery (ES)
Individual Hospital Monthly Performance
Detail from Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment(PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: A hybrid technique formalization article. See full overview at insight
Performance shaping factors
Clone of IM-11079, incorporating Mark Heffernan's SImple SD ithink v10 Model of Hospital Patient Flow done for particle filtering in September 2014
Patient Flows ED and Wards
WIP Understanding pathways to observed effects complex causation Pathways Moving to Opportunity NYC example from Nate Osgood's big data lecture youtube video Feb 2017 Sydney.
Potential and actual causal mechanisms
Based on Ransohoff DF, McNaughton Collins M, Fowler FJ. Why is prostate cancer screening so common when the evidence is so uncertain? A system without negative feedback. Am J Med. 2002;113:663-7. See IM-15991 for a generic Stock Flow Map
Prostate Cancer Screening
From Jennifer Prah Ruger (2010) Health Capability Conceptualization and Operationalization Am J Public Health 100 p41-49 available from SSRN Extended slightly in IM-791 so use of this is deprecated.
Health Capability Map
Festinger's theory of cognitive dissonance represented in feedback loops, relevant to defensive behaviours, goal conflict in PCT and mental health From p256 Fig 4.23 of George Richardson (1991) Book Feedback Thought in Social Science and Systems Theory,. Book reviewed here
Cognitive Dissonance
Addition of two extra articles on specific nicotine dependence (addiction and habituation) with conceptual maps to initial version
Nicotine addiction dynamics
Major stocks and flows of Erythropoiesis and Erythropoiesis Stimulating Agents (ESA) Dosing in Anemia due to Renal Failure from Jim Rogers. See Simulation Insight
ESA Dosing in Renal Anemia
A simplified dynamic model, adapted from Engineering perspectives on healthcare delivery: Can we afford technological innovation in healthcare? Rouse, William B Systems Research and Behavioral Science 2009 Vol 26 (5) p573-582 abstract Developed by Mark Heffernan. Addition of learning curve effects IM-614 to Insight 435
Technology and Healthcare Costs and Outcomes 3
Gross theory of emotion regulation from Saras Chung ISDC 2015
Abstract See also Tibor Bosse's Computational model paper
Emotion Regulation and Stress
A work in progress model for ED hourly arrival flows based on reported statistics by triage category with individual triage categories dis-aggregated using vectors. Based on a hospital performance report from http://www.bhi.nsw.gov.au/publications/hospital_quarterly_3
Split of IM-2166
ED flows by triage categories with hourly arrival
An initial stock-flow feedback map with unfolding story about Suicide Prevention that resulted in a national and regional simulation. See revised version insight
Suicide Dynamics 1
Showing how multiple effect loops for private patients in public hospitals can be represented as a causal loop diagram (CLD)
Causal loop diagram for loops of public private hospital funding
Proceso de contagios en COVID19
Causal loop diagram unfolding story based on Jack Homer's paper Worker burnout: a dynamic model See IM-333 for the Simulation model and IM-2178 for a related Causal Loop Diagram of Project Turnover
Burnout Dynamics CLD rich pic
Update to the original IM-636 from around 2002 based on 2017 discussion/inquiry into improving private health insurance in Australia
Health Insurance and Service Dynamics Update
WIP based on 2016 article The Dynamics of Addiction: Craving versus Self-Control. See also insight with additional nicotine addiction dynamics IM added
Addiction dynamics
Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.
The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.
SEIRD 01: COVID-19 spread
Medical Sustainability_p3
Simplest ED Model for Daily ED Performance with 1 ED area rather than 2 in IM-10571. Currently runs over a weekend and calibrated roughly to Weekend Data.Ward net discharges are extended in IM-12414. The Master Version of this, with the story added is at IM-11936 Resplit into 2 areas at IM-15023
ED Flows without Separate Areas
