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Health Care

Food-born pathogen outbreaks

Hamsterlord Hamster Hamster
This is an insight about food-born pathogens and what factors are affected by it's outbreaks. This is a huge issue that is not very well-known. The pathogens in food has been increasing their resistance to antibiotics by mutations. Because we are generally using antibiotics more each day, the resistance in these pathogens is growing more rapidly then it did before.

Health Care Finance

  • 4 years 4 months ago

COVID-19 spread with containment measures

Pau Fonseca

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

We add simple containment meassures that affect two paramenters, the Susceptible population and the rate to become infected.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

The questions that we want to answer in this kind of models are not the shape of the curves, that are almost known from the beginning, but, when this happens, and the amplitude of the shapes. This is crucial, since in the current circumstance implies the collapse of certain resources, not only healthcare.

The validation process hence becomes critical, and allows to estimate the different parameters of the model from the data we obtain. This simulation approach allows to obtain somethings that is crucial to make decisions, the causality. We can infer this from the assumptions that are implicit on the model, and from it we can make decisions to improve the system behavior.

Yes, simulation works with causality and Flows diagrams is one of the techniques we have to draw it graphically, but is not the only one. On you can review soon the same model but represented in Specification and Description Language.

Health Care Infection Epidemics

  • 2 weeks 5 days ago

Fighting complexity

Geoff McDonnell

From fighting lions (fight or flight) to fighting feedbacks in complex systems. A single person cutting the Gordian knot to the dynamic complexity of rubik's cube. Think of multiple players with multiple misperceptions of the faces on the cube and conflicting goals about what the desired solution is. Worse still, without an accepted framework we dont even know if it's a cube or another structure. See also policy resistance IM-697

Health Care Complexity

  • 3 months 2 weeks ago