Simple rich picture causal loop diagram of single and double loop learning (DLL). See Individual Learning IM-616  See also DLL simulation insight

This is a launchpad for patient flow insights for flows through the emergency department and hospital, including the broader community context. It also includes links to other insights relevant to ED flow improvement.

WIP for LHN Individual Hospital O Month of October 2013 linking monthly NWAUs and same and overnight activities from ED and Elective Surgery (ES)

BEACH Report 41 A decade of Australian general

Forcings and feedbacks based on Tom Fiddaman, James Hansen and other feedback and cycle diagrams

Simple Bass diffusion modified from Sterman Business Dynamics Ch9. Compare with the SI infectious disease model Insight 584.

Clone of IM-11079 ED Model for Daily ED Performance with 2 areas again, as in the previous IM-10571. Focus on shift performance by Specialist.

WIP concept map to computational model of IMV theory of suicide O'Connor and Nock 2014 Article (broken link)  more recent article 2018

WIP to explain iterative modelling of linkages over space and time see also causal pathways IM

Go to Gene Bellinger's insight version with video link This common archetype of systems that include relapse or recidivism allows exploration of the unintended effects of increasing upstream capacity and swamping downstream capacity. The increase in the relapse rate eventually returns to swamp upstream capacity as well. A social welfare example, based on a TANF case study, from How Small System Dynamics Models Can Help the Policy Process. N. Ghaffarzadegan, J. Lyneis, GP Richardson. System Dynamics Review 27,1 (2011) 22-44 abstract Conference version here

A simple medical workforce model of doctor flows, population and service growth.

Critical Systems Heuristics Boundary critique from Ulrich See also Critical Systems Thinking Insight

A general model of flows between hospital and the community with workshop elements. See also IM-3200 for focus on frequent presenters with mental health issues

WIP Patient Flow improvement strategies for a City Hospital with 3 years historical data and two year planning horizon. Built after a Generic Teaching Hospital Model IM-10346 A simplified stock flow map is at IM-399

WIP See also IM-2806 Value and Effectiveness and IM-616 Learning and Stress Emotion and Control IM

A general model of flows between hospital and the community. An expanded version is at IM-623

Addition of Incident Reporting and Prevention Interventions to a simple error chain of medication errors for patients in hospital IM-10113 

An infinite number of mathematicians walk into a bar. The first one tells the bartender he wants a beer. The second one says he wants half a beer. The third one says he wants a fourth of a beer. The bartender puts two beers on the bar and says “You guys need to learn your limits.” From Wild About Math

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

WIP Simplified Patient Flow map of features in a SD simulation model of performance of a City Hospital over 5 years. Built after a Regional 20 year planning model IM-10290 The simulation is a large ithink model built by Mark Heffernan

This model shows the Pharmaceutical New Drug Pipeline based on drug release, approval and patent expiry. This pipeline is then linked to patients switching from older drugs to newer drugs based on proven indications and marketing (indication creep). Based on work by Mark Heffernan on the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme for drug subsidy.Conference paper and Larger ithink model

A stock flow structure used to investigate interventions to improve the monthly patterns of patient flows through hospitals. Simplest structure to explain IM-10386 Expanded in IM-13966

Addition of glucagon hormone action to control glucose homeostasis extended from IM-586

Dynamics of Emergency Department Crowding Initial View from the waiting room. Follows from IM-369 Sim and IM-340 CLD. Proceed to IM-349