Stock Flow Map of MIT SDM Seminar Presentation on Improving an Eye Clinic in India. Compare with Service work pressure insight CLS

Initial attempt to reduce confusion about risk and odds ratios.

Simple Bass diffusion modified from Sterman Business Dynamics Ch9. Compare with the SI infectious disease model Insight 584.

WIP based on Nate Osgood's Motivation for Dynamic Simulation Models in System Science Lecture see Youtube video at 20:34

A simple generic rich picture view of interactions among concerned people with needs services and resources and abilities (including learning), which can be used as a pattern for many individual health care insights.

This is a stock flow map representation From Evans RG and Stoddardt GL  1990 paper Soc Sci Med 31(12)1347-63 , also published in a book by Evans, Barer and Marmor, Why are some people healthy and others not?: The determinants of population health See IM-425 for a simulation.

Bond Graph Kinetic Modeling Metabolic Map by J LeFevre  http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2004/SDS_2004/PAPERS/379LEFEV.pdf

See also IM-857 and IM-2235 for more detail

WIP detail of ED Clinical processes with focus on Stabilising and Deciding how to Admit or Discharge safely, the Disposition decision. For more aggregated views see IM-8237 for flows and IM-6913 for Physician Delegate Agent Interactions

Forcings and feedbacks based on Tom Fiddaman, James Hansen and other feedback and cycle diagrams

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

Adapted from Richard Normann (1991) Service Management Book Wiley Fig 14.6 p163

From Padgett and Powell's Draft Book Chapter 2003 Figure F Dynamic interaction of actors products and relations. See also their 2012 book on The Emergence of Organizations and Markets

Reported services via medicare statistics and healthy communities (hc) PHN reports

Love affairs and Differential equations. From Michael J Radzicki (1993) Dyadic processes,tempestuous relationships, and system dynamics Syst. Dyn. Rev. 9 (1) :79-94 

Based on diagrams in the NAP 2015 Report Improving diagnosis in health care process Compare with IM-885 Clinical judgment to provide context and and Decision Ladder IM-689 to provide decision process task detail

Rich picture version of causal loop diagram for medication errors, showing the importance of reporting, analyzing and fixing knowledge and process errors. Medication errors will tend to grow due to the use of more medications in more complex patients. This is exacerbated by the loss of staff knowledge by turnover and goal erosion in places with harmful errors.

Causal loop diagram patient centric version of Insight 691, unfolding the complexity of medication management.

Adding change over time to relative risk, odds ratio and population attributable fraction epidemiology concepts see wikipedia and examples .

WIP map of ebola in west Africa based on African Affairs Article and SEIR framework

UBI diagram from Insight 1 linked to salutogenesis, life course trajectory and more detail on Child Development WIP 

WIP for IT enabled regional health services. See also IM-14104 The Ecology of Medical Care

Extension of IM-14124 with an adjusted bed capacity stock. For backlog and services see IM-8382

Based on Psychological Medicine Dec 2015 article Depression as a systemic syndrome: mapping the feedback loops of major depressive disorder by A. K. Wittenborn, H. Rahmandad, J. Rick and N. Hosseinichimeh, mentioned here