balancing an integrated eye care training program with service needs and available resources

Suicide Prevention  WIP

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

See reference in diagram notes. WIP for Environment part of primary care regional model. GP centric calibration by JPS at IM-14117 See also IM-3126 for Regional Health Service Use Context

From MIT ESD work (de Weck Ilities ) esp on Survivability (Medecki) http://bit.ly/HVsceb and Unarticulated Value (Ross) 2006 PhD pdf

Overview of choice modelling as part of value, effectiveness and motivation series of insights about wants, needs and demands related to health care (regional) model See also IM-4043

Protein conformance change based on Ed Gallaher and Jim Rogers 2021 Forrester Award Lecture ISDC

Causal loop diagram based on Jack  Homer's  Worker burnout: a dynamic model with implications  for prevention and control See IM-333 for simulation model and IM-641 for Rich Picture CLD

System Dynamics Review 1985 1(1)42-62

 

Jones AP, Homer JB, Murphy DL, Essien JDK, Milstein B, Seville DA.

Understanding diabetes population dynamics through simulation modeling

and experimentation. American Journal of Public Health 2006;96(3):488-494.

http://ajph.aphapublications.org/cgi/content/abstract/96/3/488

WIP integrating Epidemiology Systems Science and Policy making, mainly based on books and AJE articles by Keyes and Galea

This is a high level system dynamics model which is built to determine the dynamic relationships of the FSA and Followups capacity. Therefore, it can help clinicians to find out the optimistic method in order to reduce the waiting list. At past clinicians were seeing more FSA patients, however, after few months, the followups patients overwhelmed the clinics. Therefore waiting list has been built up again. By running this model, clinicians can find out the balanced leverage point(s).

Summary of Lancet March 2023 Series See also Structure Agency Insight

Causal Loop Rich Picture unfolding from Repenning, N. and J. Sterman (2002). Capability Traps and Self-Confirming Attribution Errors in the Dynamics of Process Improvement. Administrative Science Quarterly, 47: 265 - 295. http://jsterman.scripts.mit.edu/docs/Repenning-2002-CapabilityTraps.pdf

WIP example of Services oriented multiscale computable narrative synthesis focussed on Coping carefully with diabetes

Work in progress with Jim Rogers

from Teece's 2007, 2017-19 articles and see wikipedia. See also Panarchy esp Institutional Adaptive Cycles insight

Simplified version of IM-852  Erythropoiesis Stimulating Agents (ESA) Dosing in Anemia due to Renal Failure from Jim Rogers See Stock Flow Map  Insight 810 

WIP ideas for group model building representation

Based on Chris Argyris 2010 Book Organizational Traps Oxford University Press, built around Insight 619 on single and double loop learning

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

We add simple containment meassures that affect two paramenters, the Susceptible population and the rate to become infected.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

The questions that we want to answer in this kind of models are not the shape of the curves, that are almost known from the beginning, but, when this happens, and the amplitude of the shapes. This is crucial, since in the current circumstance implies the collapse of certain resources, not only healthcare.

The validation process hence becomes critical, and allows to estimate the different parameters of the model from the data we obtain. This simulation approach allows to obtain somethings that is crucial to make decisions, the causality. We can infer this from the assumptions that are implicit on the model, and from it we can make decisions to improve the system behavior.

Yes, simulation works with causality and Flows diagrams is one of the techniques we have to draw it graphically, but is not the only one. On https://sdlps.com/projects/documentation/1009 you can review soon the same model but represented in Specification and Description Language.

Replaced by IM-752 Causal Loop Rich Picture unfolding from Repenning, N. and J. Sterman (2002). Capability Traps and Self-Confirming Attribution Errors in the Dynamics of Process Improvement. Administrative Science Quarterly, 47: 265 - 295. http://jsterman.scripts.mit.edu/docs/Repenning-2002-CapabilityTraps.pdf