"Seeing is believing" and "Believing is seeing". How the reduction of doubt can lead to holding on to initially helpful beliefs that later turn out to be false but are difficult to change. Or as I believe Bertrand Russell might once have put it, "The trouble with the world is that fools are so sure

"Seeing is believing" and "Believing is seeing". How the reduction of doubt can lead to holding on to initially helpful beliefs that later turn out to be false but are difficult to change. Or as I believe Bertrand Russell might once have put it, "The trouble with the world is that fools are so sure of themselves and the wise are so uncertain."

A model of the ladder of inference which shows how we short circuit reality based on the beliefs we develop. A picture version of the parameter version of Insight 351 for an academic audience. Here Consequences, intent and learning loops have been added

 From  Werner Ulrich 's JORS Articles Operational research and critical systems thinking – an integrated perspective.  Part 1 : OR as applied systems thinking.  Journal of the Operational Research Societ y advance online publication (14 December 2011). and  Part 2  :OR as argumentative practice.

From Werner Ulrich's JORS Articles Operational research and critical systems thinking – an integrated perspective. Part 1: OR as applied systems thinking. Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication (14 December 2011). and Part 2 :OR as argumentative practice.

WIP Summary of Lisa Rosenbaum's Feb 2019 NEJM 3 articles and audiocast .  1  Divided We Fall   2  Cursed by Knowledge   3  Not My Problem    Framework from Lintern 2018  article  diagrams on Team cognition. See also   Core theory of success IM
WIP Summary of Lisa Rosenbaum's Feb 2019 NEJM 3 articles and audiocast . 
Not My Problem
 Framework from Lintern 2018 article diagrams on Team cognition. See also  Core theory of success IM
 Clone of  IM-806  modified to integrate AnyLogic Realworld, Model World with Van de Ven Engaged Scholarship and LAnd Use Modelling approaches. See also  Complex Decision Technologies IM

Clone of IM-806 modified to integrate AnyLogic Realworld, Model World with Van de Ven Engaged Scholarship and LAnd Use Modelling approaches. See also Complex Decision Technologies IM

 Grimm's ODD and Nate Osgood's ABM Modeling Process and  Courses  See also Pattern Oriented Modelling  IM-3834

Grimm's ODD and Nate Osgood's ABM Modeling Process and Courses See also Pattern Oriented Modelling IM-3834

6 3 months ago
 Additional of glucagon hormone action to control glucose homeostasis

Additional of glucagon hormone action to control glucose homeostasis

From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for
Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research
Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
 Hypertension Generic Patient Flow Causal Loop Diagram version of Insight 305

Hypertension Generic Patient Flow Causal Loop Diagram version of Insight 305

Improvement Science as one of the clusters of interacting methods for improving health services network design and delivery using  complex decision technologies IM-17952
Improvement Science as one of the clusters of interacting methods for improving health services network design and delivery using complex decision technologies IM-17952
SD reformulation of  jama psychiatry article  mason2017 on neurocomputational model of mood instability and reward dysregulation in bipolar disorder
SD reformulation of jama psychiatry article mason2017 on neurocomputational model of mood instability and reward dysregulation in bipolar disorder
 This common archetype of systems that include relapse or recidivism allows exploration of the unintended effects of increasing upstream capacity and swamping downstream capacity. The increase in the relapse rate eventually returns to swamp upstream capacity as well. A social welfare example, based

This common archetype of systems that include relapse or recidivism allows exploration of the unintended effects of increasing upstream capacity and swamping downstream capacity. The increase in the relapse rate eventually returns to swamp upstream capacity as well. A social welfare example, based on a TANF case study, from How Small System Dynamics Models Can Help the Policy Process. N. Ghaffarzadegan, J. Lyneis, GP Richardson. System Dynamics Review 27,1 (2011) 22-44 Conference version at http://bit.ly/HlxtZj See IM 1769 for updated simpler version without serialization of the downstream stock

 Adapted from Fig 10.1 p.393 of the Book: James A. Forte ( 2007),  Human Behavior and The Social Environment: Models, Metaphors and Maps for Applying Theoretical Perspectives to Practice   Thomson Brooks/Cole Belmont ISBN 0-495-00659-9

Adapted from Fig 10.1 p.393 of the Book: James A. Forte ( 2007), Human Behavior and The Social Environment: Models, Metaphors and Maps for Applying Theoretical Perspectives to Practice  Thomson Brooks/Cole Belmont ISBN 0-495-00659-9

Clone of Clone 4of IM 27348, of JPS IM-27150 of original JPS  IM-14117  See reference in diagram notes. WIP for Environment part of primary care regional model
Clone of Clone 4of IM 27348, of JPS IM-27150 of original JPS IM-14117 See reference in diagram notes. WIP for Environment part of primary care regional model
Click +View Story on Bottom Left to unfold his wide view of Emergency care patient flows  IM-6072  used as context to add confounders and potential indirect effects. See also  IM-1010  for hospital fixes that fail,  wiki  for general Systems Archetypes and  wiki  for Leverage Points (There is also a
Click +View Story on Bottom Left to unfold his wide view of Emergency care patient flows IM-6072 used as context to add confounders and potential indirect effects. See also IM-1010 for hospital fixes that fail, wiki for general Systems Archetypes and wiki for Leverage Points (There is also a health leverage points WIP wiki page)
 This models the progressive decline of the ability for self-reliance and the growing dependence on outside help. ​Z508 p39-42 System Zoo 3 by Hartmut Bossel. Strong outside help causes a collapse of self-help capacity. Weak outside help produces a stable combination of wellbeing and self-help capac

This models the progressive decline of the ability for self-reliance and the growing dependence on outside help. ​Z508 p39-42 System Zoo 3 by Hartmut Bossel. Strong outside help causes a collapse of self-help capacity. Weak outside help produces a stable combination of wellbeing and self-help capacity.

A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models.
A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models.
 balancing an integrated eye care training program with service needs and available resources

balancing an integrated eye care training program with service needs and available resources

 An exploration of interactions among 'fuzzy' qualitative concepts that interact to produce either tolerance or violent conflict. ​Z509 p43-49 System Zoo 3 by Hartmut Bossel.

An exploration of interactions among 'fuzzy' qualitative concepts that interact to produce either tolerance or violent conflict. ​Z509 p43-49 System Zoo 3 by Hartmut Bossel.