Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment(PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: A hybrid technique formalization Zahra Mohaghegh, Reza Kazemi, Ali Mosleh Reliability Engineering and System Safety (2009) 94 5 p1000–1018 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183200800269X. More detailed part of Insight 1074

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus 

From Evans RG and Stoddardt GL  1990 paper Soc Sci Med 31(12)1347-63 , also published in a book by Evans, Barer and Marmor, Why are some people healthy and others not?: The determinants of population health. To IM-425 We add impacts of spending and a "Thermostat" setting for population health controlling health spending.

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model

Attempting to outdo an opponent leads to escalation. A weaker response leads to De-escalation. A slightly more complex  form of Insight 972.  ​Z508 p36-38 System Zoo 3 by Hartmut Bossel.

From Werner Ulrich's JORS Articles Operational research and critical systems thinking – an integrated perspective. Part 1: OR as applied systems thinking. Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication (14 December 2011). and Part 2 :OR as argumentative practice.

See also insight on Boundary Critique

From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

"Seeing is believing" and "Believing is seeing". How the reduction of doubt can lead to holding on to initially helpful beliefs that later turn out to be false but are difficult to change. Or as I believe Bertrand Russell might once have put it, "The trouble with the world is that fools are so sure of themselves and the wise are so uncertain."

A model of the ladder of inference which shows how we short circuit reality based on the beliefs we develop. A picture version of the parameter version of Insight 351 for an academic audience. Here Consequences, intent and learning loops have been added

Model of Buffer Margin from Robert Wears thesis WIP

Created in James Madison University's ISAT 341 Simulation and Modeling course by Joseph Straub and Andrew Funkhouser. Based on Mark Heffernan's Glucose-Insulin Insight Maker

Glucose Insulin Model Info:

Translated from Hormone.stm in Dynamic Modeling in the Health Sciences James L hargrove, Springer 1998, Ch 24 p255-261, by Mark Heffernan.

From MIT ESD work (de Weck Ilities ) esp on Survivability (Medecki) http://bit.ly/HVsceb and Unarticulated Value (Ross) 2006 PhD pdf

Simple Health Care Supply and Demand Interactions

Prenatal, infant and early child development based on The First Thousand Days: early, integrated and evidence-based approaches to improving child health: coming to a population near you? Darling JC, et al. Arch Dis Child 2020;0:1–5. doi:10.1136/archdischild-2019-316929 article 

From A Philosophical Basis of Medical Practice Toward a Philosophy and Ethic of the Healing Professions Edmund D Pellegrino David C Thomasma OUP Oxford 1981 Ch6 The Anatomy of Clinical Judgments p119-152 Note judgments have consequences of action, decisions can separate out the knowledge used. 

Based on Psychological Medicine Dec 2015 article Depression as a systemic syndrome: mapping the feedback loops of major depressive disorder by A. K. Wittenborn, H. Rahmandad, J. Rick and N. Hosseinichimeh, mentioned here. See also 2018 N. Hosseinichimeh Plos ONE article for rumination focussed SD simulation

Summary of several AIHW reports on Aged Care Pathways from 2011-2017

Created in James Madison University's ISAT 341 Simulation and Modeling course by Joseph Straub and Andrew Funkhouser. Based on Mark Heffernan's Glucose-Insulin Insight Maker

Glucose Insulin Model Info:

Translated from Hormone.stm in Dynamic Modeling in the Health Sciences James L hargrove, Springer 1998, Ch 24 p255-261, by Mark Heffernan.

SIR model with waning immunity - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

Also applies to finance, conflict and war

Based on Psychological Medicine Dec 2015 article Depression as a systemic syndrome: mapping the feedback loops of major depressive disorder by A. K. Wittenborn, H. Rahmandad, J. Rick and N. Hosseinichimeh, mentioned here

Storyboarding design WIP showing some relevant  context, mechanisms and outcomes involved in modelling multiscale decision support for improving the health experiences of elderly people with multimorbidity.

WIP based on Nate Osgood's Motivation for Dynamic Simulation Models in System Science Lecture see Youtube video at 20:34

System Zoo Z111 H Bossel p47 a variant of Michaelis Menten Enzyme Kinetics. See also IM-854 for Hannon and Ruth and IM-855 for receptor version and IM-856 for a bond graph view