Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman
This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.
Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases
SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus
The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people
This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions
SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping
MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them
