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Zorros y Conejos

Maria Isabel Diaz
Primer ensayo de simulación, modelo sencillo de población de zorros y conejos. Mi modelo consiste en un modelo sencillo de la población de Zorros y conejos, donde la población de conejos se ve afectada  por la muerte de conejos, la cual es el producto  de la  tasa de muerte de los conejos  multiplicado por la población de conejos, más  la población de zorros  multiplicada  por los conejos que se come cada zorro. También se tiene en cuenta que si no hay conejos suficientes  aumenta la  tasa de mortalidad de zorros.

Enviroment Population

  • 5 years 12 months ago

Tragédia dos Comuns

Paulo Villela

Não deixe de ver este vídeo super didático que explica a Tragédia dos Comuns. Ele está legendado em Português basta habilitá-la. Este modelo está na base conceitual dos trabalhos de Elinor Ostrom, ganhadora do Prêmio Nobel de Economia de 2009 com ela mesmo explica neste vídeo. Veja também este outro vídeo.


Para simular com outros valores para os parâmetros de simulação abaixo listados, altere-os ajustando as setas ou digitando os novos valores e depois clique no botão SIMULAR.

Meio Ambiente Enviroment

  • 3 years 2 weeks ago

Infectious Disease Model

Emir Guso
Inspiration for the model: The Last of Us, a video game for PlayStation 4. 
In this example, we used a system dynamics model to predict ​a spread of a dangerous infection called Cordyceps Brain Infection, which is immune to any type of antibiotics. In the beginning, the virus was carried by only one person (Infected), which inhaled spores from a plant called cordyceps fungus. 
The Infected show their first symptoms after two days, as the infection attacks higher brain functions, making the infected highly aggressive and incapable of reason or rational thoughts. 
The infection can be transmitted via bodily fluids; such as saliva, or by inhaling spores from the afore mentioned plant. 
It is believed that the infection can last up to 10 years, before the host dies. 
Parameters such as Infectivity, Contact Rate and Immunization Rate can be adjusted, but as we are dealing with a highly infectious disease, the starting values are 0.97 (infectivity - in 97% of the cases, the infection will spread to another host); 5 (each infected attacks 5 susceptible person per day); and 0.0001 (only 1 infected per 10,000 infected gets the treatment, as the vaccine can be afforded only by the richest people on the Earth). 
Simulation time is set to 50 years. The purpose of this model is to simulate what kind of an effect a deadly infection would have on World's population, if the medicine could not find a cure, or if the cure would be available only for the richest people on the Earth. 
The simulation result shows that the Earth's population has been decimated with the disease, and that there are only 7,5 million people left on Earth. 

Enviroment Health Care Medicine

  • 1 year 6 months ago

Koala Habitat

The declining koala population in South East Queensland is being caused by a number of factors. These are, climate change, urbanisation and disease. Through government intervention and preventative measures the koala population may stand a chance from the growing development in South East Queensland.

Enviroment Development Sustainability

  • 8 years 2 months ago