A Limits to Growth Systems Archetype consists of a Reinforcing Loop, the growth of which, after some success, is offset by the action of a Balancing Loop.

The limits to growth structure is based on the basic growth structure. And, as should be obvious, nothing grows forever as growth requires resources. Those required resources become a limits to growth. See also Archetypes.

From Jay Forrester 1971 Book World Dynamics, the earlier, simpler version of Scott Fortmann-Roe's World 3 Limits to Growth Model. adapted from Mark Heffernan's ithink version 

To maintain economic wealth (roads, hospitals, power lines, etc.) power needs to be consumed. The same applies to economic activity, since any activity requires the consumption of energy. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the burning of fossil fuels was responsible for 79 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2010. So whilst economic activity takes place fossil fuels will be burned and CO2 emissions are unavoidable - unless we use exclusively renewable energy resources, which is not likely to occur very soon. However, the increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will have negative consequences, such droughts, floods, crop failures, etc. These effects represent limits to economic growth. The CLD illustrates some of the more prominent negative feedback loops that act as a break on economic growth and wealth.  As the negative feedback loops (B1-B4) get stronger, an interesting question is, 'will a sharp reduction in economic wealth and unavoidable recession lead to wide-spread food riots and disturbances?'

World4 is a predictive model for world population. Population has grown hyper-exponentially in the last millenium, with the doubling time decreasing from 900 years  in 1000 CE to a minimum of ~35 years in 1963 CE. Technology is defined as that which decreases the death rate and/or increases the effective birth rate (i.e. by decreasing infant mortality). Technology grows exponentially, therefore population fits a hyper-exponential (exponent within an exponent). Models for the end of growth are explored using equations that express the ways humans are depleting Earth's biocapacity, the nature of resource depletion, and the relationship between natural resources and human carrying capacity. This simple model, containing just two closed systems, captures the subtle shifts in the population trajectory of the last 50 years. Specifically, hyperexponential growth has given way to subexponential growth. A peak is predicted for the time around 2028.  [Bystroff, C. (2021). Footprints to singularity: A global population model explains late 20th century slow-down and predicts peak within ten years. PloS one, 16(5), e0247214.]

From Jay Forrester 1971 Book World Dynamics, the earlier, simpler version of the World 3 Limits to Growth Model. adapted from Mark Heffernan's ithink version at Systemswiki.

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The Limits to Growth Archetype demonstrates the manner in which initial growth may be slowed over time by a limiting factor.

The Limits to Growth Archetype demonstrates the manner in which initial growth may be slowed over time by a limiting factor.

A Limits to Growth Systems Archetype consists of a Reinforcing Loop, the growth of which, after some success, is offset by the action of a Balancing Loop.

To maintain economic wealth (roads, hospitals, power lines, etc.) power needs to be consumed. The same applies to economic activity, since any activity requires the consumption of energy. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the burning of fossil fuels was responsible for 79 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2010. So whilst economic activity takes place fossil fuels will be burned and CO2 emissions are unavoidable - unless we use exclusively renewable energy resources, which is not likely to occur very soon. However, the increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will have negative consequences, such droughts, floods, crop failures, etc. These effects represent limits to economic growth. The CLD illustrates some of the more prominent negative feedback loops that act as a break on economic growth and wealth.  As the negative feedback loops (B1-B4) get stronger, an interesting question is, 'will a sharp reduction in economic wealth and unavoidable recession lead to wide-spread food riots and disturbances?'

A Limits to Growth Systems Archetype consists of a Reinforcing Loop, the growth of which, after some success, is offset by the action of a Balancing Loop.

A Limits to Growth Systems Archetype consists of a Reinforcing Loop, the growth of which, after some success, is offset by the action of a Balancing Loop.

A Limits to Growth Systems Archetype consists of a Reinforcing Loop, the growth of which, after some success, is offset by the action of a Balancing Loop.

A Limits to Growth Systems Archetype consists of a Reinforcing Loop, the growth of which, after some success, is offset by the action of a Balancing Loop.

A Limits to Growth Systems Archetype consists of a Reinforcing Loop, the growth of which, after some success, is offset by the action of a Balancing Loop.

A Limits to Growth Systems Archetype consists of a Reinforcing Loop, the growth of which, after some success, is offset by the action of a Balancing Loop.

To maintain economic wealth (roads, hospitals, power lines, etc.) power needs to be consumed. The same applies to economic activity, since any activity requires the consumption of energy. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the burning of fossil fuels was responsible for 79 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2010. So whilst economic activity takes place fossil fuels will be burned and CO2 emissions are unavoidable - unless we use exclusively renewable energy resources, which is not likely to occur very soon. However, the increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will have negative consequences, such droughts, floods, crop failures, etc. These effects represent limits to economic growth. The CLD illustrates some of the more prominent negative feedback loops that act as a break on economic growth and wealth.  As the negative feedback loops (B1-B4) get stronger, an interesting question is, 'will a sharp reduction in economic wealth and unavoidable recession lead to wide-spread food riots and disturbances?'

My take on simulating the peak oil production

To maintain economic wealth (roads, hospitals, power lines, etc.) power needs to be consumed. The same applies to economic activity, since any activity requires the consumption of energy. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the burning of fossil fuels was responsible for 79 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2010. So whilst economic activity takes place fossil fuels will be burned and CO2 emissions are unavoidable - unless we use exclusively renewable energy resources, which is not likely to occur very soon. However, the increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will have negative consequences, such droughts, floods, crop failures, etc. These effects represent limits to economic growth. The CLD illustrates some of the more prominent negative feedback loops that act as a break on economic growth and wealth.  As the negative feedback loops (B1-B4) get stronger, an interesting question is, 'will a sharp reduction in economic wealth and unavoidable recession lead to wide-spread food riots and disturbances?'

A Limits to Growth Systems Archetype consists of a Reinforcing Loop, the growth of which, after some success, is offset by the action of a Balancing Loop.

A Limits to Growth Systems Archetype consists of a Reinforcing Loop, the growth of which, after some success, is offset by the action of a Balancing Loop.