Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a great deal of sense.
There is much we can learn from the development of qualitative relationships models though once we begin to ask questions like how long, how much, when, etc., a qualitative most is not likely to be of much use. The following video demonstrates how, in a very simple goal-seeking structure with delay, depending on the delay, it can be almost impossible to intuit the implications of the interactions with any level of accuracy. The difficulty arises essentially from operating with outdated data. See also Archetypes.
OK, we have a problem. Yet, do we really know what the problem is? More often than not we look at the symptoms, consider them the problem and attempt to fix them. This actually dooms us to failure because they're only symptoms.
Bathtub model with filling control added. Running the model is essentially considered to be turning on the faucet and water will run into the bathtub until it is full.
This model represents an elaboration of the Savings Account model to investigate the implications associated with intending to save money for retirement so an amount may be withdrawn monthly for living expenses.
21st Century Systems Thinking Skills as depicted b Viktor Vojko. Adapted from Systems thinking: critical thinking skills for the 1990s and beyond by Barry Richmond.
Faced with a performance gap the two most obvious responses are to work harder or work smarter. There are trade offs associated with each, some obvious, some not so obvious.
Derived from Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened: Creating and Sustaining Process Improvement by Repenning and Sterman.
The simple savings account is used to demonstrate the nature of a reinforcing loop. Change the initial amount and interest rate and run the model to see the implications of changing these values.
Inventory Model v2.0 adds production and order lead time. As well as the ability to keep track if parts are on order for a production run. See also: Inventory Model v3.0.
OK, we have a problem. Yet, do we really know what the problem is? More often than not we look at the symptoms, consider them the problem and attempt to fix them. This actually dooms us to failure because they're only symptoms.
It is now appropriate to investigate the possible leverage points for the current situation in an attempt to understand the most appropriate components for the strategy.
There are limits to what one can infer from a qualitative model. It is typically beyond the capacity of humans to infer the behavior of complex situations with 2 or more feedback loops.